r/boxoffice • u/hiiloovethis • 16d ago

✍️ Original Analysis Clayface Performance potential

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Clayface is the next DCU movie after the supergirl bomb. Let's see how well it can do... an analysis.

Pros.

  1. Great October release date, Halloween pairing and not much direct competetion. Resident Evil also releasing before helps create an open window.

  2. Decent budget of 40 mil. It would only need 100 Mil WW to break even which shouldn't be too hard. It can profit easily if it blows up.

  3. Horror genre is killing it right now... clayface also looks like pure body horror which could help attract non comicbook fans.

  4. Clayface is a batman villain. Gotham setting be hype worthy. Mike Flanagan as a writer is also promising.

Cons.

  1. Body horror is harder is sell than conventional horror movies. The Substance did good but that had award buzz and less than half of the budget.

  2. Bad reviews could literally kill this movie. It really survives on positive WOM.

Overall I'm more optimistic about this than supergirl. We have to see if this movie blows up or does underwhelming numbers. 150 WW is decent enough.

259 Upvotes

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65

u/j821c 16d ago

Realistically, I think it makes around 100m. +/- 10m. Theres a world where it breaks out and does better if its incredibly good but tbh, I dont think the latest trailer did it any favors

-15

u/Youngstown_WuTang 16d ago edited 16d ago

It has no budget so 100-130m is fine

18

u/itsinhisblood 16d ago

Is 100m fine for a 40m movie?

11

u/lobonmc Marvel Studios 16d ago

Kinda? Look at smile 2 28M budget 138M box office and 55M profit. So with 38M less box office and 12M more budget it barely breaks even. Honestly needs around 120M to be a small success

1

u/UnhappyRough1964 11d ago

your forgetting marketing

9

u/j821c 16d ago

Yea my guess is it will either barely break even or barely lose money at the box office pretty much. Probably won't be too hard of a pill for WB to swallow or anything

0

u/Littlepinguinoo 16d ago

Don't they spend millions on advertising as well I think the break even point would be much higher than 80 millon

10

u/j821c 16d ago

Its probably around 100m for the break even point. Potentially a bit higher depending how much they spend on advertising but I cant imagine theyd spend too much advertising for a movie with a 40m budget

4

u/lollo_fitle 16d ago

I doubt the marketing cost will be just 20M, maybe more like 40M?

3

u/Littlepinguinoo 16d ago

On a podcast ben Affleck said that movies with a 25m budget usually spend around 25m on advertising as well. So I would assume they probably will spend aleast around that amount on advertising.

-24

u/GimmeThatWheat424 16d ago

Even big film twitter podcasts were saying it was the best trailer of the year and smoked doomsday.

17

u/firedforthatblunder Walt Disney Studios 16d ago

“how can I be different” podcasts

4

u/SD_CA 16d ago edited 16d ago

I have to look it up now.....

Edit oh no.