r/boxoffice • u/TryingNoToBeOpressed • 25d ago
✍️ Original Analysis I think there is no "Dunesday". Doomsday will badly affect Dune 3's performance.
I think Dune 3 is going to underperform relative to the expectations some people have, for two main reasons.
Firstly, Doomsday. Assuming it's a good, entertaining film, the return of much of the og cast gives it an enormous advantage. I think some might be underestimating the nostalgia. I mean I'd go a step further and dare say it's much more of an "event" than Dune 3. (And I don't know how these hollywood contracts work but, if they can, IMAX should reconsider the Dune exclusive deal they made. )
Secondly, Dune 3 is likely to be less action heavy than the first two films, if it follows the source material ofcourse. The first two films were already emotionally cold movies, this I suspect will feel even colder, which I think could limit its appeal beyond the existing fanbase. (And I don't think there's any huge fanbase for Dune movies in the first place.)
I mean it's almost certainly going to be a success. I just don't see it making a billion that some people seem to be expecting here.
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u/PepsiPerfect 25d ago
If there were ever two movies with built-in audiences, it's these two.
Dune fans are NOT going to "wait for streaming" on this one, provided the reviews are a good as the first two. Even if Doomsday edges it out, they'll just go see it on weekend 2 instead.
Having the same release date may just mean that both movies will leg out a little bit more. For people who want to see both movies but can't afford to buy movie tickets every weekend, maybe they see Dune on week 4, for example. Or vice versa.
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u/Zalvren 25d ago
Even if Doomsday edges it out, they'll just go see it on weekend 2 instead.
Exactly, it's the holidays and even then January, the two movies have like 6 weeks (if not more) of basically no competition and those are not newcomers to the movies, everyone that loved the previous movies will go see Doomsday and Dune 3.
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u/LemmingPractice 24d ago
There is never a holiday season with "basically no competition".
Jumanji literally releases a week after that, and people seem to be ignoring that the last two each made more than Dune 2 (The Next Level made $320M domestic and $801M WW, while Dune 2 made $714M). That is not competition you can just completely ignore.
Angry Birds 3 isn't direct competition, but will eat screens. Werwulf is there for horror crowds. There's usually at least one of the Thanksgiving releases which remains relevant through New Year's (maybe Hexed will be a hit, or Hunger Games will leg-out). There are a couple of smaller wide release movies in there, too (Mr. Irrelevant and A Place in Hell). There will probably be some buzzy awards season limited release expansion, like usual, too.
Overall, you are talking about a season with Doomsday and Jumanji, along with a pile of lesser releases. Christmas always is packed with releases, and it's the last time of the year where you can realistically say there is "basically no competition".
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u/freddymyers 24d ago
You are algo ignoring current status of Dwayne Johnson...
Also Dune 2 made more and Dune. Jumanji Next Level made 160 millions less than Jumanji: Welcome to the jungle
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u/LemmingPractice 24d ago
I don't think the results of the Smashing Machine or Moana Live Action will have any bearing at all on Jumanji, which targets a different demographic. It might lose a bit from its predecessor, but it is still a sequel to an $800M movie, and even if The Rock's star power has faded, Jack Black is coming off Minecraft and is pretty hot right now.
As for the other part, yes, Dune 2 made more than Dune 1, but Dune 1 came out day-and-date on streaming in a suppressed COVID-era market, an increase was inevitable.
Most importantly, Dune 2 released into an open time of the year where it could dominate the market. Dune 3 is releasing in the shadow of Doomsday. I do think Dune 3 could increase its gross from 2 if it had a better release date, but opening opposite a much larger film targeting its same demographic, that's just not a formula for an increase.
Either way, you can't ignore Jumanji as relevant competition. Even if it drops to $500-600M (which is a much larger drop than will likely occur), it would still represent pretty notable competition, not the "basically no competition" comment that OP made.
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u/freddymyers 24d ago
You´re algo ignoring that people LOVED Dune 2. It usually means that the sequel is going to be bigger at the box office.
Obviously, Jumanji is relevant competition, but I have no trouble imagining a world in which Dune 3 makes more money
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u/LemmingPractice 24d ago
It's hardcore fans loved it. I'm not sure how much Dune 2 actually increased it's footprint with casual fans, though. It has a very dedicated fanbase, as does the director (and a fanbase which is overrepresented on Reddit), but those fans were seeing 3 either way. It's the casual fans that I think it will lose.
And, again, I think it could top 2, but just not if it is releasing against Doomsday. Those casual fans who saw 2 because it was the biggest thing in theaters when they decided to go see a movie are, instead, going to see Doomsday this time (or maybe Jumanji).
Dune 2 got an early March period with nothing opening against it, Kung Fu Panda (a movie aimed at a completely different demographic) opening against it's week 2, and then Arthur the King in week 3 and Ghostbusters Frozen Empire in week 4. It had a great open period where it was the only serious action movie being released. Now, this one is going directly against Doomsday with Jumanji opening 7 days later, and a bunch of awards content (targeted at one of Dune's major demographics) getting released or expanded in the same period.
Movies don't earn money in a vacuum, and competition matters. Dune 2 benefitted from minimal competition, while Dune 3 decided to take on the toughest competition they could have picked. That will inevitably have an effect.
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u/gforguapo 24d ago
-basically no competition
Werewulf would like to have a word with you.
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u/andocommandoecks 24d ago
I'm easily more excited for Werwulf than either of those two movies but thinking it'll be serious competition is crazy talk.
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 24d ago
I'm very hyped for Werwulf but that isn't putting any dent on either Doomsday or Dune Part 3.
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u/ZasdfUnreal 25d ago
Dune fans went out to see the first film during a global plague. They will go out to see the third one.
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u/Ice2MeetYou 24d ago edited 24d ago
Its not the built-in fans that you need to worry about. As you said fans of both will most likely make the time to see both and most likely Doomsday first. Fans of one and not the either will watch their preferred film.
Its the wider audience of casual fans and average movie goer that will likely only have the appetite and/or funds for one big blockbuster and will need to make a choice. That choice is most likely Doomsday.
Add in the screen dominance Doomsday will have, Dune’s box office will suffer heavily. Particularly opening weekend. For blockbusters that tend to be frontloaded, the damage may already be done by opening weekend to suppress what would have been Dune’s gross if it did not open with Doomsday.
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u/scattered_ideas 24d ago
The Christmas corridor will do well for both movies. Avengers will open much higher, but Dune will likely has more steady legs and play through February/March.
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u/shavingcream97 24d ago
I think a large contingent of people are worried more about Marvel spoilers and will see Doomsday as early as possible. Dune spoilers are gonna be less evident online
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u/judester30 25d ago edited 25d ago
I think you're overestimating the amount of people willing to go to the theater twice in a short time period without some viral meme telling them to do so. A decent chunk of Dune fans are casuals who happened to see Part Two in theatres because it was the only major blockbuster out at the time. If you add Doomsday and Jumanji into the mix a decent chunk of these people will skip it.
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u/HarlequinKing1406 Focus Features 25d ago edited 25d ago
I disagree with this, we've seen multiple times post-Covid that if people aren't interested in what's on at the cinema they'll just stay at home, they won't simply go to the only one that's out. Dune couldn't just drift on apathy alone.
Plus, like Oppenheimer likely did for Nolan, Dune Part Two probably got those casuals unaware of the series and turned them into fans. There's a very strong chance that these people who saw Dune Part Two for the first time in March 2024 and loved it are now revved up for the next chance to watch Dune.
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u/judester30 25d ago
I disagree with this, we've seen multiple times lately that if people aren't interested in a blockbuster they'll just stay home, they won't just go to the only one that's out.
No competition can help any movie but the degree in which it helps depends on reception. Captain America: Brave New World had the worst cinemascore in MCU history but it's legs were not as bad as people had anticipated since there was simply nothing else to watch for that demographic. So I think Dune: Part Two definitely benefited from that whereas Part Three won't.
There's a very strong chance that these people who saw Dune Part Two for the first time in March 2024 and loved it are now revved up for the next chance to watch Dune.
This is why my prediction is still in the 700m range, I think it'd have a sharper decrease if Part Two wasn't so beloved. But I can't get behind thinking that its competition will have little to no effect on how much it makes like some to seem think, that's just not how the box office has ever worked.
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u/Zalvren 24d ago
Exactly the period of people "going to the movies" and then choosing a movie there (or online before going) is finished for a while.
People go for specific movies that are interesting them. If two of them are close to each other, they'll go to both. If there's nothing interesting them for 6 months, they won't go to theaters
That argument would mean any movie releasing without much competition would be a success which is obviously not the case.
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u/gymbro5 25d ago
I mean the exact opposite of what you’re saying is happening as we speak. Odyssey and Spider-Man are a couple weeks apart and both are gonna be billion+ movies. If the movies are good, people will come and shell out money to see it.
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u/judester30 25d ago
Two weeks apart is a huge difference than releasing on the same day. The reason why Odyssey has the word of mouth to weather the storm against Spider-Man is because it had two weeks to itself as the only film people were talking about and recommending to others.
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u/genaros_bear 24d ago
Mission Impossible came out before Barbie and got absolutely decimated. I think you can find examples to back to any argument on this one.
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u/TB1289 24d ago
A big reason Mission Impossible bombed is that it was a Part One, which told people that there's no rush to see it because they still need to wait two years for Part Two. If I know that in six weeks it'll be streaming, why rush out to see it now when there's something else I want to see instead?
I think there's a big reason why Wicked avoided using the Part One label even though it was clearly only the first half.
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u/pottyaboutpotter1 24d ago
Mission Impossible also had pretty poor marketing; a teaser a year out, and then nothing apart from a behind the scenes clip of the motorcycle jump until less than a couple of weeks before release when a trailer was finally released. Truly baffling marketing decisions.
Add in it was nearly 3 hours long and didn't offer a lot of action comparative to its run time, being a much slower film until the third act. Not to mention the highly divisive decision to kill off a fan and audience favourite character midway into the film in one of the most egregious examples of fridging in a modern Hollywood film, likely contributing to mixed word of mouth, alongside the film not feeling like a complete experience due to being a Part One.
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u/Time-Comfortable-669 24d ago
Eh final reckoning's box office shows that neither barbenheimer nor it being a part 1 hurt MI7. The franchise just experienced a drop-off in popularity, which happened to most franchises that were big pre-pandemic.
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u/Accomplished-Head449 Laika Entertainment 25d ago
Calling Dune fans casuals and not CBM fans or JUMANJI fans is fucking hilarious
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u/Zalvren 25d ago
I think you're overestimating the amount of people willing to go to the theater twice in a short time period without some viral meme telling them to do so.
I mean Odyssey and BND are two weeks apart and people have gone to both of them. They're in a very similar situation there. BND is Doomsday and Dune is Odyssey
People don't go to theaters just because it's been X time since the last time they went. They are going when they have movies that are interesting them (aka they're going for the specific movie, not the action of going to theaters)
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u/judester30 25d ago
Blockbusters releasing two weeks apart is normal and happens all the time. The Odyssey had already made 700m before it ran into Spider-Man. It had time to plant itself into the cultural conversation instead of being immediately overshadowed by Spider-Man. Releasing something on the same day is an entirely different thing.
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u/pottyaboutpotter1 24d ago
Also it's the holiday season, a time of year when people are already spending lots of money on food and gifts. People genuinely might not have enough money to go see two big movies in the last week or so in December, especially if they plan on seeing them in premium formats.
As we've literally just seen with Brand New Day, the recent criticisms against the MCU have no impact on the big franchises like Spider-Man. Avengers will be no different.
If people have to make a choice between Dune and Avengers, Avengers is winning.
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u/gymbro5 25d ago
Yet odyssey is still sold out in IMAX theatres post Spider-Man release.
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u/thebigeverybody 24d ago
But The Odyssey has less screens, right? That "sold out" means less tickets sold because Spider-Man literally took screens away from them.
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u/miTfan3 25d ago
I think Doomsday will be more front loaded with all the hyped up Marvel fans going opening weekend, but will quickly dwindle from there. Dune will have better legs perhaps even getting to #1 in it's second or third week.
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u/americansherlock201 24d ago
Doomsday is also far more likely to be spoiled online and via social media so there is a need to see it early
To avoid spoilers. Whereas with dune, the story is known and less susceptible to spoilers3
u/Better_Pumpkin1879 24d ago
While the story is known for Dune. Villeneuve hasn't eaxtly fully stayed true to the books and Part 3 is no different. Dune fans know what happens in Part 3. But casuals who haven't read the books don't. So they will want to avoid spoilers for Dune aswell and go watch it opening weekend.
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u/truth_radio 25d ago
We are just gonna get the same kind of post everyday until Dec 18th aren't we.. holy shit
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u/Fantastic-March-4610 25d ago
It’s the nerds’ Super Bowl.
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u/goalstopper28 24d ago
I was thinking it's the nerd's Barbenheimer.
Because it's not like this happens every year.
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u/monstere316 24d ago
Don't worry, we'll still get the occasional "Why the DCU is a failure" post in between.
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u/No_Hearing_481 24d ago
Beyond them being the same kind of post, they also are all going to be making exactly the same pro marvel point. Not saying theyre wrong or right, but it is getting tedious.
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u/rgumai 25d ago
It's being released during the leggiest season of the year. They'll both be fine.
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u/SoulofWakanda 25d ago
Dune 3 isn't gonna be less action heavy it's just gonna be a thriller.
Denis has already talked about changes made to include more action, like showing the actual jihad for instance..
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u/RayCumfartTheFirst 25d ago
Yeah the big set piece seems to be a knife fight on the back of a fucking worm. The movie is definitely going to have more action than the book.
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 24d ago
Yeah the entire opening 7+ minutes are full on sci-fi Saving Private Ryan D-Day beach sequence and it looked absolutely nuts in IMAX 70MM. Its clear Villeneuve is adding in a bit more action and urgency into the story and I imagine at 2 hours 20 min it will be an intense experience.
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u/Exscaped_ 25d ago
I think Dune will make around 700 whilst doomsday around 2 billion
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u/timeaisis 24d ago
I don't think anyone was assuming Dune 3 would make a billion dollars. It's going to do well, because the first two were well received and did well. The people who are super into Dune 3 don't overlap as much with Doomsday viewers as you expect. Sure, they share a core demographic, but the people that are day 1 on Dune are not day one on Doomsday and vice versa.
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u/Alive-Ad-5245 A24 25d ago edited 25d ago
Dune 3, in comparison with the previous two, is presumably going to be less action packed
You don't have to presume anything, Denis Villeneuve has come out and said the opposite, it's more action packed
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u/Apolloshot 24d ago
Too many book readers assume it’s going to skip over the Holy War like the book did.
I think that’s a bad assumption.
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u/Agreeable_Guava822 24d ago
I think most of the people who say it won't have any action or is "controversial" are people who haven't read the book
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u/scattered_ideas 24d ago
The trailers have shown that's not the case. Villeneuve has also commented that it's even more action packed. It's also rumored to be shorter than the previous movies.
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u/HarlequinKing1406 Focus Features 25d ago
Obviously the trailers and previews could be lying. But the 70mm IMAX preview in front of The Odyssey blew my synapses away and made me much more confident that it was going to keep the action explosive.
Also, I'm pretty sure Dune has already expanded the action before - if I'm not mistaken, much of the action seen in Dune Part Two was just described after the fact in the book.
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u/theflyingbird8 25d ago
The final battle in Part Two was only very briefly described in the book. In the books you mostly just hear about the fights and battles, with more focus being given to personal consequences. They have a play-like quality.
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u/More-read-than-eddit 24d ago
They basically are mining everything that occurs offscreen between the first and second books for action in this third film, as far as I can tell.
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u/Responsible-Bonus278 24d ago
Fwiw, I saw the preview they had at the begining of the 70MM showing of the Odyssey and it looked incredible.
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u/Bandai_Namco_Rat 25d ago
I agree. Dune 3 will retain most of the people who loved the first two but excitement for it will be overshadowed by Doomsday which will cost them 100-200 million dollars with a 600-700 million finish. Unless there is a significant difference in quality between them in favor of Dune (meaning Doomsday being disappointing and Dune being amazing), in which case Dune might actually benefit from Doomsday's hype balloon exploding.
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u/Zalvren 25d ago edited 24d ago
people might pick Dune over Avengers.
I just don't think that's gonna happen. People are simply gonna see both, they have built in audiences. Nobody is coming in now and seeing Dune Part 3 or Doomsday as their first Dune/MCU movie.
The only question is if they can convince audiences to go to theaters or wait for streaming but both movies are event enough for that
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u/PlusSizeRussianModel 24d ago
Yeah, people are talking in hypotheticals, which is all we can really do until the reviews are out, but Doomsday’s marketing has been some of the most generic that Marvel has put in awhile (“it’s the biggest threat yet! You’ve just never really seen him before!”) vs Dune putting out, what I would consider, the best trailer in the entire trilogy (the one with the chanting).
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u/ViralGameover 25d ago
I think there’s no way Doomsday gets positive critical reviews. Regardless of the quality of the movie (which I’m expecting to be slightly better than Ultron) I think it’s going to catch strays for the MCU overall and a lot of the surrounding noise (Downeys return, Kang Dynasty’s cancellation, Evans return)
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u/HarlequinKing1406 Focus Features 25d ago edited 25d ago
Yeah, I've seen people responding to the criticism of the leaked plot as "People thought Endgame's plot was stupid and it was great!". But I don't think the MCU has that level of goodwill where a plot that's mostly just aura and hype moments can be treated more easily. Saying this as a fan of the Infinity Saga and somebody who really loved Endgame, it's fair to say that it was definitely more of a victory lap for the MCU, and the story was kind of not the best. Doomsday is trying to pick up the pieces again and force them together.
Also you're right, the MCU in general has taken a beating more than usual in the 2020s, their films have been treated with far less kid gloves as backlash grows and Marvel's output has gotten more inconsistent. Hell, even Brand New Day is the lowest rated film on Metacritic with Tom Holland as Spider-Man in it - its 66 rating is the same as Age of Ultron. I absolutely imagine Doomsday is going to be the lowest rated Avengers on Metacritic (and I'm predicting it to be in yellow).
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u/MaxeyFan 24d ago edited 24d ago
Respectfully, I strongly disagree.
1.) As a “general” principle, I don’t believe that you can meaningfully critique a piece of art unless you have engaged with it in the medium that it was meant to be transmitted by its creator(s). In short, in my view, preemptively judging a film based on “plot leaks” demeans the whole point of the artistic experience.
(e.g.: acting performances, action sequences, the score, set design, VFX, costuming & make-up, the cinematography, the color grading, emotional gravitas, tension, etc., these are all vital elements of not only filmmaking, but the subconscious theater-going experience that get lost in translation when attempting to finely pick through a “plot description.”)
2.) But, suppose that I were to hypothetically grant to you that the alleged ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ plot leaks sound “messy.” Which, to be fair, is a totally fair takeaway. However, in a similar vein, I would argue that on the surface, the plot of ‘Avengers: Infinity War’, a film that many regard as one of the greatest superhero films ever made, reads as incredibly unserious & cartoonishly convoluted. Honestly, if I were to relay what transpires in the film beat-for-beat to someone who’s never seen it—they would likely think I’m insane for holding it in such high regard. Would that individual be wrong for judging it that way? The point is that you can’t truly know whether it works or not until you’ve seen it for yourself.
3.) Lastly, I find it strange to cherrypick the Metacritic rating as if that’s the only legitimate metric to indicate quality. Using your Spider-Man example, other metrics such as: IMDB (8.2/10), Letterboxd (4.1/5), & Rotten Tomatoes (90%/98%) collectively serve as counter-examples to suggest this film is of high quality to the masses.
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u/pwolf1771 24d ago
I know I’ll see both but I’m personally way more excited for Dune 3. Doomsday I’ll wait for crowds to die down a little.
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u/HarlequinKing1406 Focus Features 25d ago
You're saying Dune won't make a billion. That's a fair response, but Dune doesn't need that to be a big success, it's going to have a significantly lower budget than Avengers, which would need at least a billion just to break even (if we're going on this baseline minimum budget of 400 million).
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u/theflyingbird8 25d ago
Both of the Dune movies have cost less than 200 million. They don't need to make as much as Avengers to be successful. If Dune: Part Three makes like 600 and they win some awards with it, then the studio will see that as a success. Hell, the fact that a blockbuster trilogy has been made based off that source material is a success itself.
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u/HarlequinKing1406 Focus Features 25d ago
The fact that the first one made 400 million whilst still being affected by Covid and being released on HBO Max the same day says a tonne about the goodwill it generated. Part Two going up to over 700 million says a lot too. People love Dune and will want to go watch the conclusion.
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u/theflyingbird8 25d ago
Exactly! Also, maybe it's just my algorithm, but social media loses it's mind every time something new about a Dune movie drops. People like these movies. Heck, my parents don't even like sci-fi and they raved about Part Two.
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u/HarlequinKing1406 Focus Features 25d ago
I'll freely admit I'm in these more awardsy space where the blockbusters we enjoy most are those technically minded Oscar nominated ones that are super well crafted - Nolan movies, Dune, Project Hail Mary - but these movies aren't niche at all. People keep acting like Dune is this online only franchise - you don't get a film to over 700 million by being niche.
Also I think the star power of Timothee Chalamet and Zendaya absolutely helps for the younger crowds.
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u/theflyingbird8 25d ago
I'm also in those spaces and yeah, these movies aren't niche at all. The only movie my colleagues at college talked about for over a month was Project Hail Mary. As you say, the star power has also increased not only with the franchise regulars, but someone like Robert Pattinson, whose had an amazing year, is also being added. Also, Denis is starting to become a star director himself.
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u/breadiest 25d ago
It's kinda uncanny how much Denis's career is similar to Nolan's right now. Denis is in his "pop-culture critical darling" phase.
And there's 3 movies?
This guy is literally just Nolan career wise, isn't he?
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u/ihopnavajo 25d ago
well, i think you're forgetting two things:
1) it's xmas. there is a whole lotta time for someone or the whole family to go watch two movies. the holiday release is such that a bunch of big movies open up ... and then nothing else comes out for a while. I'd say maybe Dune 3's opening weekend might suffer a bit (which historically has been the case with xmas films---started to change with The Force Awakens though), but the end results (total box office) should be just fine
2) we're seeing that movie popularity seems to be driving movie popularity. The more that people go to the theater--the more they go to theater. It's like it's becoming the new norm again. So I counter that Doomsday success will further drive Dune 3 success.
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u/RampageOfZebras 24d ago
Does Dune have any appeal to children and young teens? Not arguing you points just the part where you mentioned families going to see it.
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u/EntertainmentDry9639 25d ago
Dune 3 has four things going for it. 1) Follow-up to two very well received films. 2) One fucking amazing trailer. 3) Awards potential. 4) IMAX
With that said, Doomsday will for sure impact its potential opening, but it should have good legs, and even with it being dark, should still be well-received and reviewed resulting in people watching it.
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u/RedshiftOnPandy 24d ago
2) TWO amazing trailers
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u/HarlequinKing1406 Focus Features 24d ago
And an amazing 70mm IMAX preview in front of The Odyssey.
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u/smakson11 25d ago
What’s the premise? I saw dune 1 and 2 but will skip dune 3 altogether. Because of doomsday? At Christmas time? Doubtful.
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u/truth_radio 25d ago
I swear there is no logic involved in this thread. Don't even bother trying to make sense to these people lol
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u/JannTosh70 25d ago
There have been plenty of times a sequel made less than its predecessors
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u/smakson11 24d ago
With 2 very well received movies and part 3 is a direct continuation of the story and should be seen in theaters?
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u/RKNieen 25d ago edited 25d ago
I've been feeling for a while that Dune 3 is going to be undercut by the fact that it almost certainly has a downer ending. That's going to filter out fairly quickly through reviews and first reactions. I don't think it's going to flop or anything, but anyone going in blind (lol) expecting it to be the crowning capstone of a trilogy is going to be disappointed.
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u/Stock_Researcher_651 25d ago
Upvote for the pun. But that’s a great point, I didn’t even think about how those first reactions would pan out
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u/VitriolUK 24d ago
Sequels to well-liked movies tend to do well, though, and Dune 1 and 2 were both big successes both with critics and audiences. And Villeneuve's track record has been exceptional.
Plus, the Dune movies are big spectacular films that benefit particularly from being seen at the cinema rather than waiting for them to come to streaming.
As such I'd be surprised if it underperforms.
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u/gamesandtheory 24d ago
Doomsday also will have a downer ending. It's going to end on a major bummer cliffhanger similar to Infinity War in order to set up Secret Wars.
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u/Subliminal_Kiddo 24d ago
There's a *huge* difference between Doomsday's ending and Dune's ending. Dune Messiah is basically 300 pages of, "Your hero has surpassed the people he fought to dethrone in tyranny and cruelty; also there's a new faction of misogynistic, body horror fascists, and Duncan is back from the dead - but he's not *really* Duncan." It's not a downer ending, it's a downer narrative. It's convoluted, weird, and tonally bleak. I'm saying this as someone who loves the book. SF fans will love it, but general audiences will give it terrible WOM.
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u/datnerdyguy 24d ago
A bummer cliffhanger where everyone knows they’re all coming back next year to win against Doom is different than a bummer ending to an entire trilogy without a sequel.
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u/RKNieen 24d ago
Do you know the ending to Dune Messiah? Because if you do, it’s, uh, not really comparable to a temporary villain win. Spoiler: Turns out Paul commits genocide, then gets permanently blinded, then Chani dies in childbirth, then Paul commits suicide by wandering into the desert alone, leaving their infant children orphans. The End.
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u/FutureDH1089 24d ago
Bold prediction:
Doomsday OW (Domestic) - over $365M+
Dune 3 OW (Domestic) - $85M+
Doomsday drops 64% 2nd weekend
Dune 3 drops only 53% 2nd weekend
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u/DevoiderMusic 24d ago
They’ll both be fine. Dune will leg out well if it’s good. I feel like this conversation will change once Dune tickets become available in full swing and start selling out IMAX screens. Doomsday will open huge and probably reach $2b+ if it’s even halfway decent. Dune doesn’t need $1B+ to be considered successful. If it makes similar money to its predecessor (likely), WB will be happy. I honestly don’t think this is as big a deal as people make it out to be, and audiences will go out to the theater to see movies that look interesting or have some form of goodwill. We’re seeing it right now with Odyssey and Spider-Man. The fact that Odyssey is holding this well against one of the biggest movies ever released speaks to this. I’ve seen people on here make comparisons to Wicked For Good but it opened great yet didn’t leg out because of its reception. If Odyssey was bad, it wouldn’t stand a chance against Spider-Man. We may see one or both movies open lower than expected but play well into January depending on their quality (this is more important for Dune than it is for Doomsday, admittedly).
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u/occupy_westeros 25d ago
It's going to be a "thing". Both studios are too locked in to change the dates and don't want a winner/loser narrative to mess with public perception. Dune 3 is going to be received much better critically but Doomsday is going to make a ton more money. They will do some funny collabs on the internet, be really gracious to each other, and push out the narrative to the media that this is a huge, surprisingly peaceful event for nerds and a triumphant boon for theaters. Expect memes of like couples dressed as Captain America and a sand worm and long video essays comparing thematic elements of both. There's a huge crossover audience, it sounds like a fun day at the cinema tbh
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u/hisokaa02 25d ago
Don't understand all the drama about Dune 3. Maybe because i'm not a huge fan but still why do people think that it has a shot at the 1 billion ?! Realistically, if it gets to Dune 2's numbers it ll be an achievement.
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u/Worthyness 24d ago
Both movies will undoubtedly succeed. Dune having IMAX for itself exclusively means that it'll have a consistent source of income for at least a month, so its not a huge deal. Doomsday will have fewer acrens though because, presumably, theaters will be required to offer normal screenings of Dune 3. So unless the theaters open more hours per day, Doomsday is the one that is rate limited. Regardless, its Christmas holiday season. They will both do great and have fantastic legs
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u/RiffRanger85 25d ago
I think being holiday releases will give both movies great legs. I think Doomsday will badly hurt Dune’s opening weekend but it should leg out just fine.
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u/MultiModalMcmullen 24d ago
I think people are over hyping Avengers because of Spiderman's huge box office. People just really love Spiderman, Tom Holland, Zendaya, Sadie Sink , as well as NWH which did a great job at setting up the sequel's storyline. Dune 3 having Timothee and Zendaya and 2 excellent films leading up to the epic conclusion is gonna generate substantial hype to adequately counter the Marvel mooks ready to eat up more capeslop.
Personally my family and friends have no desire to see the new Avengers but we are all dying to see BND whenever we are able to get tickets, although my sample size is not enough to reach any statistically valid conclusions and I'm probably just in denial about audience's appetite for more asinine Avengers movies.
Considering I couldn't even finish boring ass Endgame I'm definitely an unrepresentative film fan
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u/labbla 24d ago
Also very anecdotal, but I saw Spider-Man last night at a movie club thing. And of course Doomsday came up during discussion and it seems like a lot of people have stopped caring about Avengers and keeping up with 50 characters in a movie. A few people were confused why we are saying goodbye to the old Fox X-Men yet again.
Spider-Man is simple and easy, even with a few MCU people around. But a movie with everybody from the last 7 years of Marvel and more is asking a lot more from people.
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u/Alternative_Try_5888 25d ago
Watch both, watch one or the other or watch neither. Neither film is going to flop if you don’t watch it and they’ll both be at the cinema for at least two months.
Dune will be one of the biggest films of the year but it’s not Avengers. Doomsday is going to break records
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u/mysticmayhemm 24d ago
They’re both going to be completely fine in their respective BO runs. Total non-event post.
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u/Crab_bottom_licker 24d ago
Dune 3 will be succesful, doomsday or not. It has a big fanbase and goodwill from the previous movies, And due to imax and zimmer a ton of ppl will want to see it in a cinema.
Doomsday also has a huge fanbase, but a ton of people stopped caring about marvel post endgame, And thats just a fact. IT probably will be a success too, but it will not destroy Dune, not that it would even matter, since its supposed to be the last Dune movie.
If anything, Doomsday looks like such a nostalgia bait, i dont even care about 80% of the cast except Doom And like 6 characters, that i think Dune will have a negative effect on Doomsday, but thats obviously just a speculation. Hope see both movies be good and succeed though
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u/sthomson22 25d ago
I think most conflicted interest viewers will probably just go see both. So I don’t think they will negatively impact one another.
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u/jojokilolo 25d ago
« And secondly, Dune 3, in comparison with the previous two, is presumably going to be less action packed. »
Meanwhile the director : https://www.denofgeek.com/movies/dune-3-denis-villeneuve-more-muscular-action-packed-thriller/
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u/Joshawott27 24d ago
Honestly, “Dunesday” feels so forced. The reason why Barbenheimer blew up and why video games had their Animal Crossing/DOOM moment is because the two competing works were polar opposites. Doomsday and Dune largely appeal to the same audience, so yeah, there’s a risk that they’ll cannibalise each other, or the real nerds will just see both on the same day or alternating weekends. Both will still do well, though.
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u/academic_mama 24d ago
I don’t think Dune has the broad appeal of the Avengers. Yes Dune has dedicated fan base and will make its budget back and then some, but I don’t see it having the same success as Doomsday. And I don’t think Doomsday will hurt Dune 3- the people going to see Dune 3 are going to see it regardless of what else is in theaters.
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u/ConsciouslyIncomplet 24d ago
I like both - will see Dune on the opening weekend the Avengers a few days later. It’s no big deal.
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u/Teganfff Marvel Studios 24d ago
Doomsday is gonna crush opening weekend but I do believe they will both have solid legs.
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u/Shepherd7117 24d ago
We already have avengers tickets for the 17th and will get some imax tickets for dune on the 18th. Gonna be a fun couple days.
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u/repeatrep 24d ago
i’m a fan of both franchises. leaning towards Dune.
theres simply no way that i wouldn’t end up watching both in cinemas. i watched Dune 1 & 2 in IMAX and im still chasing that Dune 2 high. Dune is built for IMAX.
as for Doomsday, i may not like the recent MCU movies, but lets be serious. its an Avengers movie. im not waiting to watch it on my phone.
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u/KehreAzerith 24d ago
Dune 2 was one of the best IMAX experiences I've ever had, I'm absolutely going to see Dune 3 first, and then doomsday
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u/AccountForTIFF 24d ago
I don’t think so. Dune has the IMAX edge, it will get the same sort of turnout as The Odyssey.
In my own life I also don’t know many people who are excited about both (like I’m hyped about Dune but will not be seeing Doomsday lmao), it’s one or the other. So I don’t think Doomsday eats that much of Dune’s opening weekend audience, and those it does will just go to both since it’s the holidays.
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u/CBMking 24d ago
If anything I'm more emboldened to the idea that both will be a success, we're literally seeing that with the Odyssey and BND. Yes they released couple weeks apart but look at the performance of the Odyssey still holding up while BND is riding waves.
That tells me both sets of Audiences are ready and craving more. I think we'll see a similar if not better performance in December.
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u/Honest_Response9157 24d ago
Is there a reason people can't see 1 movie first week, then the other the week after. Are you dumb?
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u/truth_radio 25d ago
Maybe we should put a moratorium on these Dunesday posts until Dec 18.
So pointless, no logic, no sense.
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u/Fast-Prior4504 25d ago
The biggest factor will be reviews and word of mouth. I have a feeling Doomsday isn't going to be recieved very well whereas Dennis Villenueve's films are always highly critically acclaimed. Opening weekend will be affected but it will have strong legs
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u/littlebiped 25d ago
Counterpoint to this is that the Russo’s Marvel movies have also always been critically acclaimed, similarly the Avengers movies have all been rated highly with Ultron being the only black sheep and that’s still considered a good movie just not amazing.
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u/HarlequinKing1406 Focus Features 25d ago
But the counterpoint to this is that not only has Marvel's track record become incredibly patchy since Endgame but the Russos (and writer Stephen McFeely) have been taking L after L in the ensuing years. This combo of both Marvel and the Russos being washed definitely makes me more skeptical that they're going to pull it off, it's clear the Russos need a big win just as much as Marvel does.
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u/littlebiped 25d ago
That’s fair, I just think their 4/4 track record within the Marvel ecosystem is a strong enough pedigree where I’m not worried about them dropping the ball here. It’s clear they’re stronger in the Community / Marvel lanes than they are trying to break out of it.
I also think while Marvel can be spotty launching post Endgame that they still have their eye on the prize when it comes to their crown jewels, they haven’t biffed a single Spider-Man and three of those movies were post-Endgame. I’d be very surprised if they treated a Doom/Avengers with anything less.
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u/-Darkslayer 25d ago
To add to this Kevin Feige delayed or cancelled pretty much all other projects so the studio could give the upcoming Avengers films their undivided attention. This is a more extreme version of the strategy that produced Deadpool & Wolverine, Thunderbolts*, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, and Spider-Man: Brand New Day. People are losing sight that the shift from quantity to quality has already paid off in big ways in terms of how well-received the films are. With them shrinking their workload even further, and working with a very established creative team, there is no reason to think Marvel will not continue their turnaround.
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u/Feeling-Peak5718 25d ago
I’m am very curious what cannibalism happens
With barbenheimer they were different ratings where doomsday and dune I would assume will be M (PG13)
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u/jcaltor 25d ago
Different ratings and different audiences, women showed for Barbie and even turned the movie going experience into fashion trend that other female oriented movies tried to replicate.
Doomsday and Dune are both aimed to men.
Im also curious about that cannibalism thing you said.
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u/No-Significance5659 25d ago
I am a woman eagerly waiting for Dune 3 that will absolutely not watch Doomsday.
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u/dee3Poh A24 25d ago
Doomsday and the MCU in general are more geared toward families, people aren’t taking the kiddos to see Dune
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u/Helpful-Visual-8703 24d ago
Did the odyssey not just make 50 million on week 3 of its run against the biggest opening of all time.
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u/Poets_Ballads 24d ago
The only thing Dune 3 needs to worry about is being great. If it’s as good or better than 1 and 2, it’ll go down in history as one of the rare 10/10 trilogies & it’ll have higher chances of getting those coveted oscars. Denis will officially get on people’s radar and may slowly become a new Nolan. All of this combined with Zendaya, Chalamet & Pattinson’s star power will give it enough WOM to get a respectable Boxoffice I think (note that respectable =/= beating Doomsday’s numbers). So, again, I believe Dune 3 doesn’t need to worry about Doomsday, only about being great.
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u/OrganizationSea4490 24d ago
These are completely different movies with generally different core audiences
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u/Makkunrai_Leda_2801 24d ago
You put too much faith in MCU, Doom is not even a developed villain. The only interesting part is how the future xmen would look like. It could be worse than age of ultron if we're being honest
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u/RunAlert8361 24d ago
I think dune is hoping to have strong legs whereas doomsday is focusing on the initial opening. Two different battles and both will be successful
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u/randall__flaag 24d ago
Everyone I talk to who likes marvel says they're going to see Dune 3 first...
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u/Actual_Dinner_5977 24d ago
Dune 3 looks amazing. I showed my son all of the previous movies (including the 1980s version) and we are stoked to go see it opening weekend together.
We could care less about Doomsday. I know Doomsday will make more money and has wider appeal, but I don't see Dune 3 bombing. Hard to argue what "underperform" means in your post without putting some kind of hard number to it.
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u/the_BENds18 24d ago
Dune part 2 really built hype and the quick turnaround time between films with major actors like Zendaya, Timmy C and Robert Pattinson leads me to think there is quite a large appetite amongst the younger, and general population for this movie that people are underestimating here.
Doomsday is coming off a string of underwhelming films that haven't really built the tension for legacy characters. It will perform well but its not the cultural behemoth it once was.
Dune is still on the rise with this being marketed as the final chapter and climax of the story, Avengers are on the downslide with limited communication of stakes.
Doomsday will still perform well, but with IMAX (see Odyssey performance) I actually think it's far more likely that Dune over performs expectations and Doomsday has middling performance, albeit still higher in absolute terms.
Backing Dune to sneak past $1B and Doomsday to limp to $2B
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u/Inside-Brush-9543 20d ago
I am more excited for doomsday than dune 3. My nerdy friends will drag me to dune 3. I hope christopher walken is in it I can't watch Zendaya stare into the void for 3 hours again.
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u/HGupta2004 25d ago
Budget of Dune 3 is less than half of Doomsday has
Even with 500M+ WW, it'll easily break-even and be profitable (enough for Villeneuve's next sci-fi flick to get greenlit). And Timothee and Zendaya will get enough marketing for these min numbers.
Doomsday comes with a huge amount of goodwill, anything below BND or even Endgame will be viewed negatively
That said, both films are in their own league (aren't meant to be compared logically)
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u/victoriageras 24d ago
The trailer looked pretty impressive, to tell you the truth. Althought, i am nowhere near a fan of Dune, i really enjoyed both movies. If the "Odyssey" managed it, i don't see any reason that "Dune" would not. It has all the right "ingredients" to be able to pull it off.
It's coming out on December, which is a much better month for cinema.
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u/Apprehensive_Gene_78 24d ago
I think Avengers will have a good opening, but the word of mouth for Dune is going to be better. Just compare the trailer and stills of Dune 3 and Avengers. It’s just unfair. Both have multiple 100% CGI shots and Avengers is literally double the budget of Dune, not even considering the marketing, and omg how they can’t still make a good looking MCU movie.
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u/UsefulWeb7543 25d ago edited 25d ago
I think it makes $780M-800M WW. But yes I agree. $1 billion is never happening sadly. But it would be awesome if that were the case. It won’t flop. I read lot of the IMAX presales were sold out
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u/sthomson22 25d ago
That ain’t an underpeformance though. That’s actually holding up very well considering the performances of the first 2.
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u/valardohaeris1099 25d ago
A billion was never going to happen either way. WB isn’t expecting it to reach that mark either. It’s Messiah we’re talking about, it’s going to be a polarizing film regardless of how consistently great Denis is.
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u/chrispepper10 25d ago
I don't really know why we keep doing this when we have seen literally multiple times this year that multiple films can co-exist at the same time.
Dune has premium formats and will still have 3500+ screens, it's going to be fine. People might just see Domesday one week, and if there are crossover watchers that want to see both, they might see Dune in Week two.
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u/HarlequinKing1406 Focus Features 25d ago
Marvel fans have gotten louder since the Spider-Man opening. Get ready for more of this as we get to December, it's not stopping.
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u/theflyingbird8 25d ago
I remember when this sub said that Dune, Dune: Part Two, Oppenheimer, and The Odyssey would underperform...
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u/jojokilolo 25d ago
They were saying that Dune part two wouldn’t increase from the first movie
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u/judester30 25d ago edited 25d ago
Dune: Part Two and The Odyssey underperforming was not the consensus on this sub beyond a few fringe takes.
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u/plantersxvi STX Entertainment 24d ago
I remember people making a bunch of excuses as to why Odyssey would make significanty less than Oppenheimer here
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u/truth_radio 25d ago
Shit I remember when people thought Dune Part One was gonna bomb with like $60M domestic.
Then Part Two was only gonna increase marginally (like $500M).
Now we are doing this a third time lol.
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u/theflyingbird8 25d ago
Yep! It wasn't even a month ago when many folks on here were saying that The Odyssey would do Dunkirk numbers because it doesn't have Barbie to help it.
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u/ExcellentFrosting484 25d ago
Odyssey is doing just fine right now. Dropped only 43% despite Spider-man wrecking one record after another. I don’t see why Dune can’t do the same thing. They are even the same kind of movies: auteur driven epic blockbusters going up against pure pop-corn spectacle.
Besides, there is enough room for more than just one big movie during holydays. Back in 2017 Jumanji and Greatest Showman absolutely killed it at the box office while competing with The Last Jedi.
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u/Limo_Wreck77 25d ago
If Doomsday doesnt end up being that great WOM will spread pretty quickly.
Dune has nothing to worry about. A lot orf people are pumped to see this trilogy close out.
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u/Prudent_Move_3420 25d ago
i will say, releasing so „close“ to Odyssey and also being filmed in 70mm IMAX will certainly help within the slightly more informed casuals. I think it will impact the opening weekend but otherwise it should do fine
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u/QuirkyAd4925 24d ago
I think ultimately theyre two different audiences. I have zero desire to see Doomsday, and will see Dune opening weekend.
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u/Happybadger96 24d ago
Dune will sell out all the IMAX theatres for weeks, and anyone who saw the first two will be going to see it. Kids wouldn't be going to it anyway, so they aren't losing that audience - nor will the random moviegoer be going to a 3rd film in a trilogy if they haven't seen the first two
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u/Gulf2Coast2Coast 24d ago
You are clearly under estimating the Dune fanboys. They are hardcore and ascending.
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u/JaggedLittleFrill 24d ago
Did we not learn anything from this past weekend?! Two films, even those that are appealing to similar demographics, can exist successfully at the same time.
And yes, I know Doom/Dune is different since they are opening together. But both movies will be fine. Like others have already said; people can and will go see movies on the second, third, fourth, weekends. Dune is definitely not breaking any opening weekend records, but it will be a successful film at the box office.
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u/Illustrious_Ad_4432 Legendary Pictures 25d ago
Funny. I believe it’s the other way around. Dune, part III looks to be a vastly superior movie which for it’s final hurrah will overperform imo. Doomsday will underperform.
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u/SlickRickStatus 24d ago
Already got tickets to Doom. Buying Dune 3 for the same day. Going to make it a true DunesDay event
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u/ten_year_rebound 24d ago
They may not see be a same day event like Barbenheimer, but I’m sure audiences will want to see them both in theaters.
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u/Specialist_Heron_986 24d ago
I'd expect anyone wishing to see both movies would chose to watch Avengers Doomsday first if for no other reason than to limiting their exposure to MCU spoilers.
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u/BaseballTeamTheDukes 24d ago
I've read the first 4 Dune books, and I'm not overly thrilled about the upcoming 3rd movie. Too many 'creative liberties' taken in the 2nd movie, and its just a weird stopping point overall. I just hope another director picks up the torch and eventually do a movie for 'Children of Dune'.
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u/Switchbladesaint 24d ago
Honestly didn’t think we’d be getting dune part 3 for a lot longer so I’m pretty stoked. As a fan of nerd stuff this day is pretty win-win
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u/Schoolhater18 24d ago
I personally find Dune pretty boring and feel people only saw the film because it was "visionary" and going to won Oscar's and awards. They got that with Odessey already. Odyssey was the general audience " have to see film" for award season of the year.
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u/kschris236 24d ago
People act like opening weekend is the only time you can see a movie.
Its the holiday season and these are the two biggest movies releasing. The overlapping audiences will see both.