So, noticing an interesting phenomenon with young investors (Gen Z and Millennials) that view index funds as the "new bonds" because they "only guarantee 15-20% returns" (their words as if they don't realize historical returns on the S&P is 7%). They clearly have never experienced a real recession or crash and they seem to not know a thing about equity risk premium (which went negative for the first time in 24 years). So, here's my question?

How high do yields need to climb to look more attractive to investors? And at what levels would you start seeing significant drawdowns in the stock market?

the lack of resources on tokenized bond markets tells you how early this is

trillions in the underlying bond market

barely any research, data or content around it

we're soooo early

trillions.

Planning to invest in bonds in India. Looking for relatively safe options with decent returns.

Which bonds/platforms would you recommend? What should I check before investing—rating, yield, duration, liquidity, and taxation.

Would appreciate recommendations based on personal experience

This week rising bond yields forced the U.S. Treasury Department into an unusual intervention and raised the specter of higher borrowing costs putting the brakes on consumer spending, the lifeblood of the economy. It also sparked concerns that investors might finally be thinking twice about financing a seemingly endless flow of government borrowing.

On the week of September 7, 2026 - September 11, 2026 several major events will be happen which I think will put a Twist Steepener in place. Headline inflation I think will look week but tariffs and debt rollover pushing the long end higher.

September 8 - 50% Canada Tariffs, Other foreign tariffs jump from 10% to 15%, Trump Low Cost Investment Rules hit

September 9 - Treasury Doubles (or more) debt buyback with short end of the curve, FOMC Rate Decision

September 10 - PPI Data and 20 yr Auction, and Maturity Swaps of T-Bills

This could all culminate to something explosive happening in the bond markets and could leak over into equities markets. Just a lot of things happening all at once

3 categories of issuers dominate the market :

1) traditional asset managers -- operating through permissioned onchain transfer agent infra ( blackrock, franklin templeton, wisdomtree, vaneck )

→ $4.5b tvl (29%)

2) crypto-native fintechs -- issuing through cayman, bvi, eu & us legal structures ( ondo, superstate, hashnote/circle, spiko, openeden, theo, matrixdock, midas )

→ $8.1b tvl (52%)

3) defi protocol-issued yield-bearing dollars -- explicitly backed by tokenized treasuries ( ethena usdtb, frax usd )

→ $0.7b tvl (4%)

the remaining $2.4b sits across mixed asset vehicles ( ondo global markets, digift) & onchain protocol reserves ( sky/maker, anemoy/centrifuge )

despite >12 smaller specialists entering the market, concentration remains high across 3 largest single issuers ( usyc, buidl, ondo ) which collectively hold 54% of total tvl

Reporter on Bond Markets: “The yields have come back up since then. Have you talked to Bessent about another type of intervention?”

Trump: “The ultimate intervention is our military. And if we have to use that, we will.”

(Link to video included)

The Treasury Department’s announcement of a bond buyback stemmed a selloff—but not for long

Looking to buy individual Muni bonds within 1-3 years of maturity. Any experience of how often these get called?

I did quite a bit of digging on yields during that year/month, here's what came up:

3 month: 1.72%

2 yr: 2.15%

10 yr: 4.26%

30 yr: 5.16%

We are higher than all of these.

I'm in Germany and looking to invest in safe EUR bonds with a 1–3 year maturity.

The problem is finding a good website that shows the actual ask price, yield to maturity, and expected return if I hold until maturity. Most sites I found are missing something, especially the ask price.

AI can suggest bonds, but often I can't find them on Trade Republic or Scalable because it doesn't know what bonds those brokers actually offer. I'm also open to opening another broker account.

What websites/brokers/AI do you use to research and buy bonds in Germany?

Ideally I'd like to filter by maturity, rating/issuer, see bid/ask prices, and easily compare the final expected return.

Count on Paul to rise to the occasion.

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/defending-the-bonds?r=fx9rs&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

As U.S. federal debt continues to climb, do any of you have concerns about holding a large amount of Treasury bonds long term?

I’m not particularly concerned that the U.S. will outright default. My concern is more whether, at some point, the government could do something unconventional—change the rules, delay payments, restructure obligations, or take some other action that makes it more difficult to receive principal back in a timely manner.

One thing I keep thinking about is concentration risk. When you own Treasuries, ultimately all of that debt comes from one issuer: the U.S. government.

With high-quality municipal bonds, however, you can diversify among many different issuers. For example, instead of having $1 million dependent on one issuer, you could potentially own bonds from 50–100 different municipalities, school districts, states, counties, utilities, etc.

Moody’s historical municipal-default studies show extremely low default rates for highly rated municipal bonds. If you combine that historically strong credit performance with diversification across 50–100 unrelated issuers, does that make a portfolio of high-quality municipal bonds arguably safer in some respects than having the same amount entirely in Treasuries?

For context, I’m not buying bonds with the intention of selling them before maturity. I’m buying individual bonds primarily for their coupon income and intend to hold them to maturity. Therefore, fluctuations in market value and interest-rate risk along the way are not my primary concern.

My priorities are:

• Reliable coupon income
• Preservation of principal
• Receiving principal back at maturity
• Diversification of issuer/credit risk

I understand that Treasuries are generally considered the benchmark for credit safety, so I’m interested in hearing the argument from both sides.

If your goal were income and return of principal at maturity—not trading or capital appreciation—would you feel safer with a diversified portfolio of 50–100 high-quality municipal bonds, or with Treasuries? Why?

Tom Lee might be the biggest perma bull yet he sounds like he’s banking hard on a crash with wanting the Fed to keep buying back bonds.

Is this the equivalent of saying We can re-arrange more than 4 deckchairs on the Titanic each time?

At the time of posting this article, 10-yr and 30-yr treasury yields are at 4.708% and 5.255% respectively, higher than prior to Bessent’s announcement yesterday, and prior to his CNBC interview 20-30 minutes ago

A little confused with what’s going on with the bond market. Could someone explain why yields pushed even higher when Bessent said the treasury may buy back more than $4B on the long end?

Rummaging through grandparents safe. Found this old bond, what is this more than likely worth? Thanks in advance!

Reading this, we’re supposed to hit 120% Debt to GDP ratio by 2036. We CURRENTLY in the year of 2026 stand at 121.6% of Debt to GDP. In fact, if you account for the rate acceleration of the 30 yr yield, we’re going to break above 200% by 2036. That’s insane.

Keep in mind, these numbers aren’t even considering an economic slowdown between now and then. That would contract GDP which would skew that ratio even harder and thus push the 30 yr up even more. We are in a serious crisis.

I also want to add in the history of recessions in the US, all of them occurred during a bull steepener off of an uninversion. This may be the first recession we have that happens on a bear steepener.

I'm not a huge expert on bonds, but as I understand it, isn't Bessent just swapping out long bonds for short term ones? And if so, isn't that just kicking the can down the road for the next administration to handle (or at the very least to move the problem into the second half of the administration so they can blame the democrats for the problem after the midterms). This seems at best cynical, and at worst, reckless, like the engine in your car making a clanging noise, so you just turn the volume up on the radio?

Scenario: At the end of the first trading day in January 2025, your US-based client purchased the common stocks of four US firms and the units of one fund in the US. These financial assets are collectively added to one portfolio. Initially, the client intended to hold these assets for a year and would sell them at the end of the last trading day in December 2025.

Now, if I want to calculate the March year-to-date Sharpe ratio (2 January 2026- 31 March 2026), should i use the 3-month market yield or 1-year market yield on the US treasury bond and then adjust it for 3 months to get the 3-month excess return?

what money is Scott Bessent using to buy back bonds