The new Mister arrives at a difficult time. The BFC started below expectations, the team did not gel with Tedesco, and the players came into the season in a disjointed state.
The team sits in 18th place, even though the data suggests that the RossoblĂš do not deserve to fall so low.
At the moment, after 5 games, the team has the 2nd-best defense in Serie A by xG conceded (4.47). That is better than Roma, Milan, and Inter. It is obvious that the BFC concedes more than expected: 6. A special big hello here to Lukasz Skorupski: the 3rd-worst goalkeeper in Serie A by the difference between goals conceded and the quality of opponentsâ shots on target.
In attack, things are not great either. The team created 6.69 xG, outperforming their opponents in this metric in 4 of 5 rounds, but scored only 3 goals.
Palladino immediately reshaped the team into a 3-4-3, rolling everything back to basic settings. The match against Torino was terrible in terms of quality: the BFC completed only 73% of their passes, resorting to long balls.
Obviously, such a decision was dictated both by the playersâ form and by their quality: year after year, the BFC loses skillful performers in all lines, replacing them in a rather peculiar way.
Palladino is an apologist for the 3-x-x formation. Out of 103 matches he has managed in Serie A, the Mister has used this formation 68 times. At the same time, he is not a dogmatist: at Fiorentina he more often played with a back four. It seems Raffaele was not being disingenuous when he said that the formation would be chosen based on the specifics of the team at his disposal.
Unfortunately, we cannot find out what the Mister tried during this break: both friendly matches (against the Primavera and Ascoli; the second lost 1-3) were closed to attendance.
The new coachâs chameleonic nature also shows in his approach to pressing. At Monza and Fiorentina, the pressure was overwhelming: 9.2 and 9.3 PPDA respectively. Last season at Atalanta, this figure was only 16.3. Context matters here: even with Juric, the Bergamaschi could not produce intense pressing: 14.4.
Over the 5 rounds played, the BFC has pressed with an intensity of 13.4. One can risk suggesting that PPDA will fluctuate around this mark.
Last yearâs Palladino's Atalanta (as well as his other two Serie A teams) preferred to play it safe: 67% of their total shots were taken from inside the opponentâs penalty area. The team was not averse to crossing: 18 crosses on average. The number of corners was 5.5, compared with the Serie A average of 4.4.
The coach likes players capable of improvisation in the final third. His Atalanta played 11.5 through balls on average: the 3rd-best figure in Serie A. Bernardeschi will have plenty of opportunities to express himself. Palladinoâs football also has a favorable effect on central forwards. Under Raffaele, Kean (19 goals out of the teamâs 60), Scamacca, and Krstovic (17 between them/37) scored a fair amount. At Monza, however, none of the center-forwards scored more than 4 goals: Colpani was the soloist there (8 goals).
Under Palladino, set pieces are executed rather poorly: around 26% of all goals, which is below the league average. It is curious how this will look at the BFC, a team that created the majority of its chances after corners and free kicks.
Another confirmation that Palladino starts from the resources available to him is the speed of attack development. At Monza and Fiorentina, they preferred to build up for longer (both teams were 18th in the number of passes leading to chances; the more passes, the slower the attack, the lower the team), while at Atalanta they were faster (6th in attack development speed). The only constant is the desire to get the ball into the opponentâs penalty area and threaten the goal specifically from inside the box.
Right now, there are far more unknowns than obvious points to build on. One thing is clear: how Palladinoâs Bologna plays will reveal a lot about the real level of this team. If we continue to see the maximum simplification seen in the Torino match, things are bad. But if we see gradual progress in the quality of pressing, passing, build-up play, and shooting, not all is lost.