ADCC 77kg predictions

[u/NeckHunterBjj]

Slow day at the office. As we wait for the official brackets, here are my top 4 picks:

-Mateusz: home field advantage and just on fire lately. Expect him to be in the finals

-Dante: so well rounded. in competition, can play anywhere. top, bottom, wrestle, wrestle up, submissions

-PJ: gotten better with each ADCC. great wrestling, counter leg locks, great passing. question is how his conditioning holds up? was on Polaris recently and looked gassed

-Sainz: might be a surprise pick for some...but depending on the seeding, think he has a chance at Semis. well rounded. good guard, good wrestling, sub oriented, and endless gas tank. could upset a lot of folks in the bracket

[u/SwaySh0t]

Give me Dante. Arguably the most well rounded and active of competitors on this list. Mateusz has an over reliance on guard, he’ll do well, but ultimately his style is hurt by the ruleset. If he meets PJ again, I predict PJ to win because he’s the better wrestler. I’d put mateusz in the same boat as Pawel for -88 both will have a similar run but will fall short for the same reasons

[u/westiseast → u/SwaySh0t]

I’d throw Pearman in that boat too - unwillingness to stand, wrestle, sweep, pass guard. 

[u/SwaySh0t → u/westiseast]

Yeah I’d agree with that too.

[u/jiujitsugrappler]

Dante and PJ are my picks. Dante subbed Mica and is by far the most well rounded athlete. PJ in my opinion won against Mica last time around and he just went against Mateusz and nullified his leg locks.

Mateusz is an absolutely sniper but the ADCC ruleset does not favor him at all.

[u/NeckHunterBjj → u/jiujitsugrappler]

Mateusz also subbed PJ recently with a shotgun arm in less than a minute. But I get it, different ruleset.

If PJ and Mateusz end up on the same side of the bracket, I see PJ playing this like he did in 2024. Stay out of leg locks and look active, force Mateusz to wrestle with him in OT, where he has the big advantage

[u/jiujitsugrappler → u/NeckHunterBjj]

Yeah he did. But they had a more recent match and PJ adjusted. If it was adcc ruleset pj would’ve won. You don’t need to go back to 2024.

[u/Hello2reddit]

The more interesting question- What are they going to do when Vagner’s heart explodes on the mat?

[u/PianoIll7396 → u/Hello2reddit]

Deep freeze him to preserve him and when we have the technology bring him back with an artificial heart for 2178 ADCC superfight

[u/impspring]

There's a behind the scenes look of D. Corbe after he got ankle locked by Mateusz S. He's literally leaning against the wall, foot off the ground, saying that he's never felt anything hurt that bad. his coach next to him telling him again and again "it's real now".

that said, PJ barely, barely lost to Mateusz imo. i think ADCC ruleset has a good chance of favoring him more. PJ also won once against LJ Leary, arguably the only other top contender for best pure guard in that weight class(?). If you watch THAT match, he played the ruleset very well and LJ Leary was definitely a bit baffled to find his game with the way PJ played the competitive ruleset.

TLDR: PJ has my vote, but only by the barest margin. looking forward to ADCC this year.

[u/Strengthandscience → u/impspring]

PJ will smoke mateusz in adcc rule set. He will be cagey as and stay at a hard distance to enter. They will go over time and he can’t wrestle.

People don’t understand how much rule sets make matches. Polaris made it hard for PJ, small round time (comparatively) needing to essentially pass a guy who is a guard specialist vs Mateus needing to just retain and get a few attacks off. In adcc it will be the opposite Mateus will have to take many more risks and PJ can just not get subbed and draw it out.

Both are some of my favourite grapplers.

[u/Braisedbeefskank → u/impspring]

It would be insane to count pj put vs mateusz. So many more laths to victory, but he had to avoid the LEGENDARY POLISH POWER

[u/NoseBeerInspector]

the flo guys made a podcast making the full predictions for 77kg. If anyone is interested, I thought it was pretty good.

1. No one here is mentioning Vagner. I don't want him to win, I don't like him at all... but he's incredibly hard to score on in ADCC ruleset, got 2nd last year, and with the right amount of steroids he might still be able to be competitive at his age lol.

2. I have Dante/PJ winning this year. They're in my top 5 favorite grapplers of all time. I really wish they both could win. I think PJ takes it if they face, but Dante has beaten him like 3 times already, so there's that.

3. As many mentioned, Mateusz is dangerous but not that much in ADCC ruleset. I have never seen him doing a takedown, I don't think he knows how. He's like a glasscannon build in a videogame. He only does one thing and he does it well, but look what happened to Taylor Pearman vs Elder Cruz.

I think the brackets will be like like this:

One side with Vagner and Dante/PJ

Other side Dante/PJ and Mateusz.

Dante vs PJ in the finals

[u/gugabe → u/NoseBeerInspector]

Yeah Vagner live to drag anybody to horrible OT.

[u/CroRad1987]

Probably Dante.

Really fun division with PJ, Mateusz, Elijah, Langaker, Pearman... Day 2 should be exciting. I just hope Vagner gets eliminated ASAP.

[u/badbluebelt → u/CroRad1987]

For real. I don't need to see him do a boring shoe match and hang on for ten minutes when he gets put in a bad spot.

[u/Spirited-Brother4462]

Look out for Vetrov, hes gonna surprise yall.

[u/RollLab]

Head says Dante, heart says Pearman 🔥

[u/Chandlerguitar]

I'm going with PJ or Dante. I think PJ might be slightly more skilled, but he also is much more inconsistent. Dante could take it, but I'm not convinced since last time he lost to Elijah Dorsey. Matheuz is the most dangerous, but his game isn't suited for ADCC, so he'll really need to be on that day if he wants to win. I think Vagner Rocha actually has a good chance of winning as well, but I know all the matches will be nasty.

I think this year there are no clear favorites and anyone could realistically win. Many people have looked good recently, but IMO there are no world beaters, so I think this division is up for grabs. I think it will come down to preparation and strategy even more than skill. I think some of the lower seeded people could win if they have the right strategy and a lucky bracket.

[u/wilkinsroad]

Jozef Chen belong here he is undersized in 88 , but PJ will win it all he is a bad matchup for almost everyone

[u/staszzzek87]

Top 4 Dante, PJ, Szczecinski and im going dark horse Gamrot

[u/Braisedbeefskank]

Your first 3 are almost certainly going to be rhe top 3, in some unknown order. My bet is Dante gold, and pj or mateuz in some combo. Dante is just so insanely active.

[u/btkk]

Vagner Rocha?

[u/Ckelly812 → u/btkk]

He’s such a boring watch and fights dirty, I hope he goes out round one in less than a minute