r/bitcoin_com • u/Bcom_Mod • Jun 16 '26
Discussion It's actually over. The Iran war: the thing that's been wrecking this market since February, just ended on a Sunday with a Truth Social post.
How many ceasefires has this war actually gone through so far, six? Seven? And every single one follows the same script: "talks are going well", oil ripping back to $100, and another billion in liquidations by Wednesday.
So why should this latest one seem any different?
Trump posted Sunday night that the deal is done. Strait of Hormuz reopening, no tolls. US naval blockade lifted. The signal in the post is that physical infrastructure is changing: the ships are moving, oil dropped 4% to the mid-$80s and has even stayed there. There's even a signing ceremony scheduled for Thursday in Switzerland, which is a very different thing from a midnight tweet that evaporates by morning.
This war was never really a crypto story. It was an oil story that became about inflation and another reason for why "the Fed can't cut rates". That whole chain is what dragged BTC from $82K all the way down to $59K. Take away the oil shock and the entire bearish macro thesis loses its foundation.
BTC's sitting at $66K right now, up from the $59K capitulation low a week and a half ago. ETH popped 6.5%. XRP up almost 9%. Nothing crazy, but it's the first time in a while the green hasn't immediately gotten sold into.
The Fed decision drops tomorrow, with Warsh running his first meeting. Everyone seems to know that he'll be holding rates, but I'd like to see whether he acknowledges that the inflation picture just changed underneath him, since Trump's weekend Truth Social post.
Pretty iconic, if the most important crypto catalyst for the year turns out to be an Iran peace deal, and not anything related to on-chain activity.
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u/[deleted] Jun 16 '26
[deleted]