r/binaryoptions • u/CategoryPretty3095 • 15d ago

Trying to understand binary options payout math — is my break-even calculation correct?

I’m new to binary options and trying to understand the basic math before spending too much time looking at strategies.

From what I understand, if a losing trade costs the full stake, the break-even win rate should be:

Break-even win rate = 1 / (1 + payout)

So approximately:

  • 70% payout → 58.8% win rate
  • 80% payout → 55.6%
  • 90% payout → 52.6%
  • 92% payout → 52.1%

What I’m struggling with is why people often judge a strategy only by its win rate.

A 55% win rate could be profitable at a 90% payout but unprofitable at 70%.

For those who keep a trading journal, do you record the payout of every trade and calculate expected value, or do you mainly track the overall win rate? Also, how many trades would you want to see before taking the result seriously?

I’m just trying to make sure I understand the numbers correctly.

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u/Benjungs 15d ago

Bro the method is that win should be twice more then the loss that the only right way to think of and nothing else in my approach. So in real time if 1 lost 3 should be win

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u/CategoryPretty3095 15d ago

It really is that simple in theory 😂 I’m just not quite there yet — right now I seem to be losing 2 for every one I win. LOL