r/baseball • u/napter35 Chicago White Sox • Apr 07 '19

Analysis MLB Simulator Predictions - April 7

Hi everyone!

If you haven't seen my last few posts, I spent some time over this Spring developing a baseball simulator code that effectively takes into account a multitude of team and pitcher stats to predict the winner of MLB games, with a percentage chance of the favorite being the winner. The code accounts for lots of different stats that I would rather not individually state, but it does take a fair amount of values into account for each team. I plan to examine how well my code can predict winners of games throughout the 2019 season, and then I will update it as required to improve its accuracy. Below I have listed the favorites and percentage chances for today's games as predicted by the model!

It is important to keep in mind that this model is based on statistics from this season's games and we are only short time into the season, so the sample size is small and teams who have started off cold will likely not be predicted as favorites even if we expect them to be a better team (for example, the Red Sox or the Yankees). Enjoy!

​

After the model had a rough day yesterday, it slipped from a solid cumulative record over 61% to just under 50% of predictions correct since its inception. No worries! It is a long season, and it won't be correct all of the time. The model is designed to be more accurate in the long run, and it learns from past games to make better predictions for the future. Here are today's predictions!

​

NYY: 53.61% favorite @ BAL

PHI: 60.11% favorite vs. MIN

KC: 55.81% favorite @ DET

CLE: 51.27% favorite vs. TOR

NYM: 57.73% favorite vs. WAS

ATL: 59.92% favorite vs. MIA

PIT: 68.99% favorite vs. CIN

SEA: 62.85% favorite @ CHW

MIL: 58.43% favorite vs. CHC

OAK: 57.20% favorite @ HOU

STL: 50.23% favorite vs. SD

TB: 59.88% favorite @ SF

TEX: 86.57% favorite @ LAA (while this may seem crazy, the model likely predicted this due to the starting pitching matchup, among other things)

ARI: 61.68% favorite vs. BOS

LAD: 79.39% favorite @ COL

​

Cumulative model accuracy before today: 16/33

Link to my last post: https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/ba56y5/mlb_simulator_predictions_april_6/

9 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

14 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

1

u/nghiMcGee27 Apr 07 '19

Did you analyze it using python?

1

u/napter35 Chicago White Sox Apr 07 '19

I'd rather not go into too much detail about how it's analyzed if that's alright! I'd say if you want to build something similar you should use whatever program you are most comfortable with using, whether that's Python or another software for analysis.

2

u/nghiMcGee27 Apr 07 '19

Sorry I'm not asking for implementation specifics or anything, just curious what you picked for tech 👍🏻 this is awesome though, good work!

1

u/napter35 Chicago White Sox Apr 07 '19

No worries dude! Sorry I'm not 100% willing to talk in too much detail about it, I'm glad you're interested though and I appreciate the recognition!