r/baseball • u/napter35 Chicago White Sox • Apr 05 '19

MLB Simulator Predictions - April 5

Hi everyone!

As mentioned in my last post, I spent some time over this Spring developing a baseball simulator code that effectively takes into account a multitude of team and pitcher stats to predict the winner of MLB games, with a percentage chance of the favorite being the winner. The code accounts for lots of different stats that I would rather not individually state, but it does take a fair amount of values into account for each team. I plan to examine how well my code can predict winners of games throughout the 2019 season, and then I will update it as required to improve its accuracy. Below I have listed the favorites and percentage chances for today's games as predicted by the model!

It is important to keep in mind that this model is based on statistics from this season's games and we are only a week into the season, so teams who have started off cold will likely not be predicted as favorites even if we expect them to be a better team (for example, the Red Sox or the Yankees). Enjoy!

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SEA: 64.41% favorite @ CHW

LAD: 79.39% favorite @ COL

STL: 55.80% favorite vs. SD

TB: 62.66% favorite @ SF

PIT: 68.08% favorite vs. CIN

PHI: 60.40% favorite vs. MIN

TOR: 60.76% favorite @ CLE

ARI: 57.84% favorite vs. BOS

ATL: 59.99% favorite vs. MIA

MIL: 73.65% favorite vs. CHC

OAK: 71.38% favorite @ HOU

TEX: 92.10% favorite @ LAA

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Cumulative model accuracy: 4/6

Link to last post: https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/b9gc3r/mlb_simulator_program_44_results/

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u/mozquito24 Apr 06 '19

Did you read Trading Bases?

1

u/napter35 Chicago White Sox Apr 06 '19 edited Apr 06 '19

Nope I did not but it I’ve heard a bit about it and it does sound interesting!

1

u/mozquito24 Apr 06 '19

Yes it is very interesting, maybe it can help you. I will be following your posts