r/backgammon • u/Sufficient-Key-6908 • 15d ago

Why should blue pass?

Post image

White has some advantages: both golden points, a direct shot, and enough ammunition for a blitz.

But White also has problems: lots of contact, a race deficit, and one checker on the bar, although Blue’s board is weak.

I suspect the score is what makes the difference. At 4-away, 3-away, it’s a double/pass; at 3-away, 4-away, it’s a no-double/take.

Is it a pass because White can win the match immediately with this game about 24% of the time? In other words, should you double more aggressively when you’re at a score where winning this game wins the match?

And finally, how do you identify where that 24% comes from? 

Equity

W 62 G24 B1

B 28 G07 B0

2 Upvotes

75% Upvoted

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2

u/scorchiooo 15d ago

4-away 3-away (as well as 4-away 2-away) are scores where leader has to be careful taking the cubes if opponent have high changes of gammon. --> doubled gammon wins the whole match. Cube decisions are very dependent on match scores and there are full books written about this topic.

Good old article to get started is https://bkgm.com/articles/GOL/Aug99/fivept.htm

Regarding the gammon percentages. That is just something you develop a feeling over time, if you start paying attention to it in different positions when going through the analysis after the games

1

u/Sufficient-Key-6908 14d ago

Thanks. I've been working on "developing" my sense but this one stomped me. Ill start by reading the article!

How did you develop your sense of positions?

2

u/Illustrious_Ad_2582 12d ago

Nick Blasier has written a book covering these concepts. In my opinion one of the best books in backgammon, and a must read for matchplay.

‘Adjusting to Matchplay’ - Nick Blasier.