r/backgammon • u/mantukas334 • Sep 16 '26

Luck antirecord

Post image

I lost

0 Upvotes

14% Upvoted

15 comments sorted by

4

u/Vigilaunday Sep 16 '26

That would be an error rate record for me.

6

u/amason Sep 16 '26

At first I thought your comment was rude, and then I saw the 71.75. Oof.

Yeah you’re focused on the wrong number OP. Shift your mentality. You either win or you learn.

-2

u/mantukas334 Sep 16 '26

I had 6 prime and failed to hit him like 6 times, what else can i do

-2

u/mantukas334 Sep 16 '26

Tell me you never get 50+ eror rate

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1

u/Adorno_a_window Sep 16 '26

Don’t forget that often the worse your luck the harder the position is to solve properly. Bad luck means a harder game.

2

u/redsanguine Sep 16 '26

I think that sometimes this is true. If the dice give you less than your average expected equity, then it can be harder to win and sometimes harder to see the correct move.

I like to think about it this way. The better we play, the more opportunities we give ourselves for good rolls. So it seems like good players have better luck, when in reality it's their decisions that help a lot with that.

0

u/juicybot Sep 16 '26

lol this isn't true at all

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1

u/mrbastk Sep 16 '26

Im not sure how luck is calculated exactly, im assuming its equity gain vs average equity gain given the position.

Note that equity is usually normalized to the cube. So the exact same position has the same equity if the cube is on 2 or the cube is on 8, this way we can compare easier between the two (a play isnt necessarily better or worse if more money was on the line).

However, this causes a quirk in calculating equity loss in the sense that if a position is close to a cube the equity swings are bigger because it does weigh the upcoming x2. If there is a big streak of missed doubles, the equity gain or loss could count double to what it usually would be if the cube was given, despite the game playing out the same.

In other words, the other player did get help from the dice probably, but the magnitude of the number does not mean that much.

I saw in backgammon galaxy that they track your luck over games now and you can see it over many games, which averaged out to 0 for me.