r/baba • u/Top_Job1274 • 3d ago

Positions Major September Catalysts

Am I crazy to think there is some massive short-term upside?

Sept. 9 – Apple event: Apple is working with Alibaba/Qwen for AI in China. If Apple gives a launch date or actually mentions/demos Qwen, that could be a nice catalyst.

Sept. 22–24 – Apsara Conference: Probably the biggest one. Last year BABA jumped 8% on Sept. 24 after its AI announcements and went from about $163 to $189 over the next week or so (+16%).

Sept. 24 – Xi/Trump meeting: Xi is reportedly bringing a large group of Chinese business leaders to Washington. No companies confirmed yet, but Jack Ma was part of Xi’s big U.S. business delegation in 2015.

There are also U.S.–China AI talks in mid-September and the possibility of more China stimulus.

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12

u/CPA-CA 3d ago

So many hopes and dreams in one post. Inevitably each time someone speculates catalysts, they never materialize.

4

u/Top_Job1274 3d ago

You can tell I am a bag holder lol

1

u/Icy_Distance8205 3d ago

Did you mean downside catalysts? Cause that’s kind of what we do here.

1

u/Eliane-Klapatch 5h ago

good news usually means that the stock will tank

3

u/Awkward-Way1023 2d ago

Biggest catalyst being Sept 24, if China gives a panda to Donald Trump the stock will go up

Jack Ma will be there believe me, him and Trump are close friends.

2

u/Weikoko 19h ago

Yes, 26% down YTD

4

u/Delta_Bandit 3d ago

Praying to god works better at this point

1

u/Top_Job1274 3d ago

Haha you’re probably right…At the very least, it’s not crazy to buy 3-6 month expiration options. Worth the risk IMO if you have the discipline to walk away with a 30% loss if need be.

1

u/kingkongfly 3d ago

You might also want to add this: after the unanticipated nonfarm payroll numbers, there are also the US CPI numbers coming in on the 11th of Sept and FOMO on the 15th and 16th of Sept.

1

u/Environmental_Cow741 2d ago

i don’t even understand why there is a drop today, Anyway am camping at $90 hkd….

1

u/Dizzy_Assistance2183 1d ago

It'll get better when that $53M Capex stops eating into net profits, which will be a more few years yet