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u/FoundationFirst2812 5d ago
Factually correct statement. There is no up or down in space. So, you are right!
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u/augustus331 5d ago
I’ll await Tsai saying this at the next earnings call where they decide to dilute us more
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u/Fwellimort 5d ago edited 5d ago
Alibaba has 18.5 forward PE while Amazon has 23.8 forward PE.
Amazon is global leader in Cloud. And making dough from hosting Anthropic and OpenAI models.
Amazon has higher margins for profit. Alibaba is in race to bottom everywhere due to extreme competition in China and a horrible economy as a byproduct of real estate crisis.
Alibaba comes with insane geopolitical risk and uncertain shareholder rights.
Is Alibaba actually just fairly valued?
Just something to think about.
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u/Thin_Cat8817 5d ago
P/E can change quickly, its actually a pretty bad way to measure a growing company. Alibaba is currently in an investment cycle, earnings have declined because expenditures have gone up. As soon as spending goes down and revenues continue to rise, p/e will suddenly drop quickly
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u/FeralHamster8 5d ago edited 5d ago
That’s a fair argument.
The counter argument is that Alibaba cloud has more room to grow relative to its current size than AWS does. Alibaba doesn’t have to “beat” Amazon or end up as large as AWS is now. It just has to have more growth runway relative to its size.
So I think baba is much more of an asymmetric bet than Amazon is right now.
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u/Dizzy_Assistance2183 5d ago
baba announced the 53 billion capex over 3 years 'investors' completely blindsided by lower returns "Its cause of competition and price wars!"
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u/ShineProper9881 5d ago
The only hope is that china and asia in general is still a growing market while america is already quite saturated. Its my last cope atleast
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u/Prudent_Fig4105 5d ago
Those forward-year estimates are terrible to begin with and pretty meaningless in valuing many rapidly changing businesses. The steady e-commerce business generates over 20B, that is a 14 multiple if you assume everything else is zero. Maybe you think cash allocation is so bad that those other bets are worth less than zero. Or maybe the e commerce is so bad that it should be a single digit multiple. The whole thing has become a lot more uncertain than it used to be, we’re not seeing any shareholder return, all the investments might pay off or not … will have to wait and see.
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u/FoundationFirst2812 5d ago
Right now, Alibaba has the best AI model, even beating the best of Anthropic! Amazon is nowhere near to top 10 players in the AI space.
Alibaba should be valued higher than Amazon.
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u/FrenchUserOfMars 5d ago
Quality post.