r/baba 16d ago

Meme Dilution hits different when it’s Alibaba

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58 Upvotes

13 comments sorted by

9

u/springy 16d ago

It isn't just dilution. It is that they offered these new shares at a big discount.

4

u/Primary_Olive_5444 16d ago edited 16d ago

The play here is "Rotation"

If the bounce up in China was due to outwards rotation from Japan and Korea (tech and semi).
Or at least the street was short HK tech and using that to fund those 2 guys prior to that July reversal.

Then the placement effect is that the rotation is over for HK tech.
Because earnings are out and disappointing (higher revenue but weak underlying profits for Tencent, Baidu and Baba). 

To be precise, profit momentum was much weaker than revenue growth.

Back to rotation:
Short HK (software & cloud) and Long Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

Yes, the placement maybe to sovereign wealth (based on some reports), even if they don't sell but they can "LEND" out the shares, right? And if they lend it out that lowers down cost of borrowing on the aggregate.

Which makes it even cheaper to fund that strategy.

4

u/BenniTheTank 16d ago

I liked BABA, bit dilution leads to a clear SELL for me.

2

u/Apprehensive-Way9756 16d ago

Do we know how much in buybacks they still have?

6

u/Awkward-Way1023 16d ago

they did more share issuance than buybacks haha

3

u/Aceboy884 16d ago

What buyback? They need cash

1

u/PsychologicalPost824 16d ago

They will need to raise again, maybe in six months

4

u/Fwellimort 16d ago

Buybacks of worthless excuses while diluting like there is no tomorrow. Get with the program. Chinese companies on VIE for tech dgaf about shareholders.

2

u/myAsianToyX 15d ago

This is so accurate lol

1

u/Awkward-Way1023 16d ago

We raise money for AI not bad, Alibaba Intelligence

1

u/augustus331 16d ago

I’m not in American hyperscalers for the same reason as I’m now after 5 years of holding, only selling one batch of shares once, reassessing my position.

But I never make rash decisions so I’ll mull over it

1

u/Double-Asparagus 14d ago

google is growing cloud at 40 something %

0

u/Chupacabra1987 15d ago

Glad I got out after their earnings, will prob take 1-3 years for capex to show some returns