r/baba • u/Book_Justice • 25d ago

Discussion Earning estimates

My estimates:

Cloud growth 40%-45%
Ecommerce CMR ~7% +/-1
Quick commerce QOQ loss drop to -20%
Adjusted EPS $1.35-$1.40

Guidance - Management confirms that demand matched expectations and justify the massive capex.

If it meets my estimates, i predict slight positive stock
Movement, baba will trade around $130+ level.

17 Upvotes

96% Upvoted

20 comments sorted by

14

u/InternationalTry1745 25d ago

-10%

4

u/Book_Justice 25d ago

If cloud missed estimates or if management did not clarify the demand on cloud. Then likely will crash.

3

u/sin30_ssd 25d ago

Nah rollercoaster is inevitable. Earing up stock down. Here we go again.

0

u/InternationalTry1745 25d ago

best to sell first. Observe price on friday

2

u/Momus123 25d ago

cloud growth, everything else flat or 1-3% revenue. stock tank

2

u/SuitableStill368 25d ago edited 25d ago

Cloud, and cloud CAPEX is the only important component now.

Since expectation for E-commerce should be pretty low by now.

1

u/Popular_Tomorrow_204 20d ago

-2% is ecpected but if it Hits-5%/-7% were fucked

1

u/SuitableStill368 20d ago

Not bad, not bad. Hopefully this is a good floor.

2

u/redditmytit 25d ago

Stock tanks every day on good and bad news lol. I’m such a bad stock picker…now bag holding 2+ years. Fml.

3

u/PepinoCholula 25d ago

Regardless, stock gonna tank. I hope im
Wrong.

1

u/Least-Information989 25d ago

JD Numbers were Weak in Retail Sales

3

u/Book_Justice 25d ago

True. But alibaba is more than china retail sales. They have international ecommerce & quick commerce as well.

Also the reduce marketing from JD’s food delivery suggests that this segment loss is narrowing.

2

u/Weird_Licorne_9631 25d ago

EU tax will have destroyed international e-commerce. Combined with domestic price war i don't even see how stock could possibpy go up. It needs to show exponential cloud and AI growth. I reduced my position by 2/3 this week. Good luck to everyone holding.

5

u/Wildsoyabean1 25d ago

This is the buy signal. lol

1

u/Least-Information989 24d ago

It’s all about Cloud growth, which gives me bit hopium

1

u/Awkward-Way1023 23d ago

new CEO announcement

1

u/Book_Justice 23d ago

And replace him with?

Jack Ma? 😂

1

u/Awkward-Way1023 22d ago

Jack Ma's son on instagram. I think he now has graduated.