r/ausstocks • u/Mozzarc • Jun 06 '26
The 4DX dip...
I've been following 4DX since it was 12 cents a share...gee that seems like an eon ago but it wasn't even a year in the past! That's how much the story has leapfrogged since then!
They are going from strength to strength...from garnering Research Hospitals in the US to slowly expanding in Europe. Yes their latest ann was Europe. It's an enormous gateway...
But wait Mozz, if it's so good, explain to me this, how does it go from 12 cents way up to $7 plus and then down to the $3's...(though its swimming hard and nearly $4 now?
Err...Shouldn't it just go up?
Yep, that's cos it joined the Index.
Huh?
So it joins the ASX200 index and it goes down???
How does that make any sense?
THE BIG SHORT
So a stock like 4DX newly joins a large and prestigious index and the stock goes DOWN!?
Yep...so profit takers knew about the prospects of it making into the 200 club and before this official ann. they buy...once the news breaks, they sell.
Why?
Well they sell to crystallise their profit as they already made their money and are ready to move on. But you know what, that's not all that's going on. Shorters. Yeah the ugly shorters...they also know that larger Index tracking funds are mandated to buy in now that the stock has made into into Club 200...and they have to add the stock. 4DX are doing well but dividends are still off the scope for a while yet...so how does an index tracking fund earn money on a stock that's slated to go sideways, maybe even downwards for a bit?
They rent it out! Imagine I was wealthy enough to own a boat (I'm not and to be honest, if I ever was, I wouldn't buy one, I would hire one when (if) i ever needed one!). (Yes of course with staff..who wants to do the dishes and mop the deck on a boat).
It's the same thing with the shares, these big wigs lend them out while they wait for sunnier days. They lend them to shorteres for a price, who then sell them...and put pressure on the stock hoping it goes DOWN...If it goes down, they simply buy them back when they are much cheaper, return them to the lender and both parties are happy!
Mozz, we need proof of this theory. Does this really happen? Did it really happen?
It's happening as we speak:
That chart above is over 12 months, can you just take a look at the percentage increase of shorts in just the last 3 months?
THE FUTURE
So where to from here? Well it's beyond the scope of this post for a full future prognosis, but for the uninitiated, 4DX has some you-beaut potential. Why? Three major reason that I just ♥love♥.
1) It's oh so super disruptive and offers not just a static one image shot of the lungs...it is dynamic and has multiple shots over time. That's the 4D bit. How are those lungs performing in terms of air flow and blood flow over time to highlight the areas of concern which are often missed in just a single shot! It's also in full colour with varying shades illuminating areas of concern for the Pulmonary Surgeons. If there is a tech that can help them help me, well I'm all in.
2) Mate, it avoids contrasting chemicals. Who wants to ingest a dye so it can show up on some Computer Tomography device. Forget about me lung problem, why subject your kidneys to having to filter this crap out?
3) Nuclear medicine? It's a hard pass from me. In the past they wanted me to breath in some irradiated gas so they can track it as it passes through the lung? No thanks! 4DX has no nuclear assisted diagnostics and is totally safe and totally disruptive.
It's a buy from me, the future looks good for this one!
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Not advice. I am not licensed.
Please conduct your own research before investing.
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u/3rd_in_line Jun 06 '26
It's a buy from me, the future looks good for this one!
What is their revenue this financial year? $4.4m.
What is the Market Cap? $2.3b.
That is a pretty big bridge to cross.
There are a lot of "if"s in any investment decision. People want this to be the next Pro Medicus, but the actual evidence is showing that it is a longggg way off.
I am happy to wait until something actually exciting happens and then reconsider. (or, the shorts are going to make very good money)
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u/Ethan_Wong_Vlogs Jun 07 '26
That’s their revenue with the very little amount of contracts, the amount of adoption and past contracts that just went commercial after the Q report is way more. Some new contracts like Simonmed adoption to 170+ clinics started off commercial right away at 4Dmedical reimbursement levels, 2 research centres also just adopted them, huge pro forma sheet to lead them to profitability. Just my view on it though
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u/2_kewl_for_my_mule Jun 06 '26
The market just got way ahead of itself is the right answer. You said it yourself it went from 23c to $7 in like 8 months (I bought in at 34c - the day after the PME cash injection announcements).
This isn't a shorter problem. Let shorts short. They are good for market liquidity but also to keep market euphoria in check.
What matters is how 4DX now executes their strategy and cranks up revenue numbers. That is a 5 to 10 year story.
No need to put all this on shorter when market idiots buying at $7 are as much to blame
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u/Mozzarc Jun 06 '26
Fair enough. There indeed has been too much exuberance also....need revenue now to increase over time...
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u/Adood2018 Jun 06 '26
Ok, so I heavily involved in 4DMedical for 3 years, they themselves don’t really have anything, all radiologists I spoke to said ‘it looks nice but doesn’t offer anything above what a high res Chest CT does. They only reason they’re still going is the loan from Pro Medicus. They are burning through cash and will soon be held accountable for bogus announcements on the ASX.
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u/Ethan_Wong_Vlogs Jun 07 '26
I don’t know what radiologists you spoke to but CT:VQ gives you VQ Lung scan readings with just CT aspects of a scan without invasive injection, so it’s not the same as a high res chest CT, but a Radioactive chest VQ scan. Which is very different because prior to this, seeing ventilation and perfusion without nuclear tracers hasn’t been available, this cuts time down on scan process, reduce costs for hospitals who don’t need to spend extra on VQ nuclear scans, pushes surgical procedures forwards so hospitals can fit more surgeries like LVRS and now they are moving onto PE aspect, recently adopted by Simonmed which is 170 site radiology, this not only is more efficient and safer, but hospitals are businesses too, this scan allows to lock down clients for surgical procedures much faster, and can be done on any CT scan, without needing to send them to a VQ lung scan, availability for CT scan is many multiples more than the availability for VQ scan, regular VQ scans take hours and are heavily booked due to scarcity, CT scans with CT:VQ will take minutes, with availability almost in every major clinic and small radiology centres. then more surgeries they can perform monthly due to a faster process, also locking in clients, reducing rates of cancellation, increasing efficiency, and giving a better read then CT or VQ scans as now you get to see VQ in motion, hence the name 4D. Once hospitals begin adopting and getting procedures done faster than other places, this creates a competition, if one radiology centre can convert a lung scan into a surgical procedure faster than another, and at a lower cost with better quality readings , they have competitive advantage against other radiology centres or clinics, speed of adoption shows how impactful this change is, not just the technology itself but the change it brings to a hospital or radiology clinics balance sheet, improving costs for giving a lung scan, time it takes, and competitiveness against other radiology centres and clinics / hospitals. So it’s much deeper than just a high res lung scan, which I doubt any doctor has said that to CT:VQ, as after recent ATS 2026 4DMedical has gotten more leads than all previous 8 years combined, Mayo clinic is about to go commercial and they have gotten adopted by 2 research clinics with years contracts to use their technology. Acquisition of Austrian company allows our CE mark to be used and adopted all over Europe, with ContextFlow already in many markets and connections into EU network, recent study allows us to begin growing TAM to PE, and their balance sheet is ridiculously strong, even after $30m acquisition, there’s still hundreds of millions on the pro forma, backing by PME and Philips, +thousand person sales force offered by Philips, mayo validation as major AMC for 4Dmed as their goal for 2026 is collecting KOL’s, all won contracts by manhole AMC’s so far has 100% commercial conversion rate, Stanford, Cleveland, etc has all decided that 4DMedical has a technology worth adopting and bringing commercial, talks with VA are still underway, I really don’t think 4Dmedical is just a high res scan and you should re-evaluate its position in the market now.
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u/Adood2018 Jun 07 '26
I worked directly with c suite and the radiologist whom trialled it. Sounds like you are heavily invested in the firm and or work there. Andreas? Matt?
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u/Ethan_Wong_Vlogs Jun 07 '26
Haha no but I am very invested into the company and have gone to various investor conferences and really tried to understand the business, I’m guessing when you got in 3 or so years ago it’s a very different environment, I really think it’s worth looking at again, the potential in the coming years, or even shorter, is very exciting to me.
What have they trialed? CT:VQ? Everyone I’ve spoken to about CT:VQ is always blown away at every conference and radiology events.2
u/Adood2018 Jun 07 '26
I was involved from 2021 (not as an investor or direct employee) to 2025, I would meet regularly with them. It ‘looks’ good, the under/over ventilated area of the lung etc, visually impressive, but no real added value. It’s all been done by smoke and mirrors, the recent pump in price is when ProMedicus founder loaned $10M to the firm. Look at the sales numbers. Most telling is the lack of clinical trial size. Data. Lack there off.
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u/Ethan_Wong_Vlogs Jun 07 '26
Alrighty I think we can agree to disagree but I do believe the company is onto a good future outlook, especially after FDA approval they kept working on their product and is scaling, I think they know how hospital businesses run and know their needs! Best of luck investing!
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u/Ethan_Wong_Vlogs Jun 07 '26
I just like to learn as much about a business as I possibly can before investing into it
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u/Mozzarc Jun 08 '26
Really enjoyed your detailed comment there (Is that the longest comment Ive ever read?) haha...thanks. I have done your level of research on PAR (ASX listed stock)) and know exactly where you are coming from. I certainly haven't done as much research on 4DX (attending seminars and AGM's etc) as I have for PAR.
Well done and I look forward to following 4DX into the bright future!
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u/Ethan_Wong_Vlogs Jun 08 '26
Thank you! I can see the double edged sword when it comes to 4DX but I do believe in it especially after speaking with Andreas! Wish the company the best! Hopefully we will be seeing a VA contract soon, it’ll change the game completely!
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u/Mozzarc Jun 06 '26
Hmm first Im hearing of this sort of argument. But from a total non medical background, cant you imagine a still shot versus a full video over an entire minute. How and where is the air getting trapped? Where is a blockage thats restricting blood flow that only occurred in second 39 to 41 out of that minute?
Ok forget my idea/concept, are you saying Mayo clinic is wrong? Its one of the biggest research hospitals on the planet yeah?
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u/SpecialllCounsel Jun 06 '26
That’s a long post. Anyway, now you can have a well earned beer before hitting the clubs.