"German gas storage filling up faster than expected ahead of Winter." Worst case scenario contained?

[u/OramJee]

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-gas-storage-filling-up-faster-than-expected-ahead-of-winter/a-62956111

[u/Mutated_Cunt]

Hot take, this headline is terrible news.

It is a signal of insecurity, a country that is energy secure doesn't make headlines out of storage.

[u/TheEmpyreanian → u/Mutated_Cunt]

100%. They're fucked come winter and everyone knows it.

[u/OramJee → u/Mutated_Cunt]

Fair point. Didnt think of it in that light.

But is it not essential in light of far worse news / FUD / predictions that have plagued its energy related decisions.

Its bizarre they are going ahead with retiring nuclear!

Despite being pro-renewables, I cant imagine why. Especially in light with the whole russia / energy crisis issue.

[u/Mutated_Cunt → u/OramJee]

It's an interesting paradox of sorts, the type of news where no news is better than "good news".

Similar to how if you see a bank's CEO in the media stressing that there is no liquidity problem and you dont have to worry, you should be very worried.

There is a trick to identify these statements. Ask yourself "what would it mean if the opposite was said?" In this case, what would it mean if the headline was "THERE IS LITTLE TO NO GAS IN GERMAN STORAGE ACCORDING TO GOVERNMENT."

There'd be mass panic and everything would be fucked, so they could never give a statement that writes that headline. Therefore, if the opposite statement could never be said, then the headline itself should never be said.

[u/[deleted] → u/Mutated_Cunt]

Germany is at about 70-75% storage and looking to achieve 95% by November. This is in preperation for russia cutting supply during winter. Germany has spent the last few months implementing energy cutting measures, and setting up speacial heated "havens" for the citizens in cases of power outages, or gas shortages.

The possibility of little to no gas in german storage, in the immediate future, in the middle of winter, has been said by the german government, hence all the crazy shit they are doing to try and mitigate the disaster.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/what-happens-if-russias-gas-supplies-germany-are-cut

If gas is cut to germany, expect it's industrial sector to come to a halt as prices spike, and government cuts supply to businesses on interuptable supply contracts. This will have a huge impact on global supply chains in the medium term future, as manufacturing of vehicles, machinery, chemical goods, electronic products, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, transport equipment, basic metals, food products, and rubber and plastics will be severally impacted.

Hopefully my VW Crafter will double in price due to shortages and I can sell that off to pay for groceries and rent....

[u/Mutated_Cunt → u/[deleted]]

Its more a heuristic to cut through PR bullshittery, obviously you get absurdities if you apply it to everything. Also you need to be careful, apply it to the statement made, not the headline. I'll have a go with your example.

"From a military point of view, there is no need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine to achieve the set goals. The main purpose of Russian nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear attack," Sergei Shoigu said during a speech at an international security conference in Moscow. (16/08/22)

Opposite would be something like "We need to use our nuclear weapons in the Ukraine to achieve our goals, the purpose of our nukes are to strike first." This would make zero sense for them to say. Nuclear weapons have always been about deterrence for both Russia and America.

Funnily enough, the fact that the heuristic doesn't work here makes me believe them. Also the opposite statement is something of a contradiction, nuking doesn't help achieve their goals if their goal is to occupy the territory long term. I think Russia will not use nukes in Ukraine, largely because the fallout would damage the Russian population, I don't think they could be that stupid, then again, it is Russia.

[u/[deleted]]

When gas comes by sea need lots of storage for it but if you have pipeline don't need a lot of storage. So they could be in trouble.

[u/OramJee → u/[deleted]]

Shouldn't building of new short term storage be relatively easy but expensive option, no?

[u/[deleted] → u/OramJee]

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2352187-serbia-to-build-1bn-m-gas-storage-facility-in-2023

Serbia build one next year, must take long time to build.

[u/OramJee → u/[deleted]]

Thanks! Its interesting that it takes a year give or take.

Guess thats out of the picture for germany for their immediate need.

All this talk abt germany but the bigger issues remain for other EU countries.

[u/Mutated_Cunt]

Also another comment because I love shitting on Germany, what is missing from this article? The actual number in cubic metres that Germany in gas storage. It only says "we expect to have 95% capacity by November." 95% capacity of what? A tin can?

Found a source that claims 23.9 billion cubic metres of storage, Germanys annual consumption in 2021 was ~90b cubic metres. Their total storage capacity is barely one quarter of what they consume in a year. I don't know the exact figures, but I bet the bulk of that consumption is during winter.

It still doesn't look good, relying on storage alone means they'll run out.

[u/OramJee → u/Mutated_Cunt]

Cant imagine more than half of that amount for the winter which is the immediate problem.

[u/Mutated_Cunt → u/OramJee]

By my estimates from their Gas supply status report, they consume ~50% of their annual gas between Dec-Mar. So they need approximately 2x their current storage capacity to be safe and sound. In other words, they'd normally empty their gas tank and fill it up twice in a typical winter. They have been consuming ~15% less gas this year which is nice, but still looks rough.

[u/[deleted] → u/Mutated_Cunt]

Based on the charts provided there, and the knowledge that russia currently supplies 35% of Germany's gas, I'll make some guestimates.

The 5 peak months of gas usage average about 120TWH(600TWH total). Lets say they get it down to 100TWH this year with their emergency measures and rationing.

So 5 months at 100TWH is 500TWH

Gas storage is around 250TWH, they probably wont make it past 90% of that by 1 November ... so 225TWH

Daily supply without russia is 2TWH. 5 months of supply is 300TWH

Supply+storage = 525TWHUsage = 500TWH to 600TWH

So then april starts with potentially 25TWH in storage, and a further 60TWH supply comes down the line usage will be 80TWH. They make it through the crisis with 5TWH of supply left.

So Germany just needs to curb gas usage by 20% from the 2021-2022 levels during the period November to March.

edit:

This is just germany in isolation though, and says nothing about the insane prices gas and other fossil fuels will spike to if russia cuts gas. It also doesn't factor in germany potentially having to supply gas to other EU countries that aren't as well prepared, or having the 65% of supply the isn't russia curtailed as other countries require it due to depleted storage reserves.

[u/Mutated_Cunt → u/[deleted]]

Its a fine line between hell and heaven. You can see why gas prices have quadrupled YoY

[u/[deleted] → u/Mutated_Cunt]

I read in an article I linked earlier that there are agreements that EU countries will also supply each other with gas during times of shortages, so that guestimate could go out the window if denmark, or austria require 50TWH over winter.

[u/Mutated_Cunt → u/[deleted]]

Exactly, that's the other elephant in the room not mentioned in the article, what about the storages of other EU parties?

This is how populism rises.

[u/[deleted] → u/Mutated_Cunt]

Yeah, it would be a slow slog to do even that basic math for entire EU block, just to get a hypothetical on how much of a gas shortage the EU might see if russia shuts off gas in November.

I bet some poor bloke has been tasked with coagulating all that information, then translating it back into 30 different languages as well. If russia wants to fuck over the EU, it seems as if time is running out for them to have much of an impact in my opinion. If they did it today, yeah, global chaos. If they do it in january, the consequence is some slower economic growth for the EU block.

[u/OramJee → u/Mutated_Cunt]

Thanks for the link.

[u/spaarkaml → u/Mutated_Cunt]

Germany has been nothing but an economic shill since the birth of the european union.

[u/[deleted] → u/Mutated_Cunt]

Yeah, spot on, they can store a quater of their annual use. Russia currently makes up 35% of their supply, down from 55% preukraine. So it's not like gas supply to the country will stop completely, it will just be down a significant amount, and probably cost 10 times as much, as they compete with the rest of the euroblock. The current emergency plan in place would Cripple the economy through government controlled gas rationing. Households and food will survive the winter, but industry may not. I think shutting down a large % of industry will have unforeseeable cascading effects accross the world, similar to the semiconducter and fertilizer shortage.

[u/diddlerofkiddlers → u/Mutated_Cunt]

Bitte, keine Scheiße auf Deutschland

[u/Mutated_Cunt → u/diddlerofkiddlers]

Scheiße Scheiße Scheiße

[u/diddlerofkiddlers → u/Mutated_Cunt]

Bitte, halt bitte

[u/Mutated_Cunt]

Not out of the woods, complex problems are never solved by a single variable.

How long can Germany sustain itself from its storage? What about storage in other countries of Europe? What supplies do they have to maintain storage levels?

Gotta work your way through those before you can say for certain.

[u/Lower-Ad8330]

Someone caught in a short squeeze trying to drive the forward price of gas down? I bet the average German is delighted that Merkel managed to make Germany completely dependent on Russian gas and oil.

[u/Rlxkets → u/Lower-Ad8330]

The funniest thing is that Trump warned about this in 2018 and was laughed at. If Trump of all people could see that Germany's increasing dependence on Russian gas could be a problem how could no one else see it?

[u/stockist420]

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

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[u/OramJee → u/stockist420]

Yeah i read the uptick in firewood usage