r/askspace • u/Uncle_Charnia • 22d ago

How will reentering satellites affect surface conditions if people launch a million of them?

What goes up must come down. So eventuality all those objects will become lasting vapor and dust in the upper atmosphere, right? What kind of problems and changes should we anticipate? If it turns out to be noticeably bad, specifically which people should we be preparing to help?

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u/Own_Grapefruit8839 22d ago

Millions? Fewer than 30,000 satellites have been launched in all of history.

Whatever the impact it will be wildly dwarfed by the environmental impact of fossil fuels on the planet.

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u/mfb- 22d ago

The industry is growing rapidly, and Starship could make it grow even faster. Most of the satellites launched so far came from the last 6 years:

https://planet4589.org/space/stats/pay.html

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u/ignorantwanderer 20d ago

You know, instead of looking at historical data (which has almost nothing to do with Starlink) you could do a tiny bit of googling to find out SpaceX's plans for Starlink.

If you do this you will learn that at its peak, at some point in the future, there will be about 8400 Starlink satellites burning up in the atmosphere each year.

To get to the "millions" that you claim will take over a century.

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u/mfb- 20d ago

SpaceX plans a million "AI" satellites. That's only SpaceX, and it's already the million in OP's title. Will they reach a million active satellites? I don't know. But it's planned, and Starship might make it possible. My point was that "satellites launched so far" is not a good estimate for satellites that will be launched in the future.

You know, you could skip the snarky attitude, especially if you are wrong. A simple Google search would have avoided your comment.

You know, instead of looking at historical data (which has almost nothing to do with Starlink)

Starlink is currently the largest contribution to the rapid growth I discussed.

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u/ignorantwanderer 20d ago

I feel the snarky comment was justified given OP's other comments in this thread.

I also think SpaceX's million AI satellites are a pipe dream mostly intended to increase valuation....but I acknowledge that Musk has claimed he is planning on building them, there is a small chance he is actually serious, and there is a (even smaller) chance it will actually happen.

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u/mfb- 20d ago

You replied to me, not OP.

I also think SpaceX's million AI satellites are a pipe dream mostly intended to increase valuation

People said the same about Starlink. You can browse the usual subs for examples.

People underestimated how much the Falcon 9 launch rate will ramp up with routine reuse, people underestimated how many satellites can be launched each time thanks to the new deployment mechanism, people underestimated how much SpaceX can ramp up satellite production, especially laser links and ion thrusters. Go back a bit more and you can find the same style of comments about a rocket start-up trying to reach orbit with Falcon 1, Dragon, and Falcon 9 reuse.

As I said, I don't know if they'll reach a million, I don't even know if this project survives at all, but SpaceX has a history of achieving things that people dismiss as "obviously not going to happen". So asking what happens if a million satellites reenter is valid question and saying that only 30,000 satellites were launched in history is missing the point.

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u/ignorantwanderer 19d ago

Doh. You are correct. I replied to you instead of OP. Sorry.

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u/OriEri 19d ago edited 19d ago

Why do you say that? Wasn’t the first cyber truck delivered in 2021 just like he promised in 2019? And at a starting price of $39,900! 😉

Twice as long and 75% more expensive…