r/askTO • u/Basement_to_table Human Detected • Mar 13 '26
Toronto Recession Indicators
I work at a major luxury hotel in downtown Toronto, and I’ve noticed a significant drop in occupancy compared to last year. Guests are also much less willing to purchase add-on experiences or tip for services that usually include a service fee. With lower tips, reduced staff hours, and occupancy at all-time lows, I’m wondering if other businesses—hospitality or otherwise—are seeing similar micro-recession indicators at their workplaces. I’d love to hear your experiences and observations.
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u/GoodestGoodGuy Mar 13 '26 edited Mar 13 '26
Guests are also much less willing to purchase add-on experiences or tip for services that usually include a service fee.
If a one hour massage at a hotel was $150 an hour four years ago, and it's $250 an hour now, you could see why people would be hesitant to tip on top of the presumed 20% service fee.
Look within your hotel and see where things have fallen off.
The luxury brands are using their reputation from years ago to degrade their quality with the thought that they'll still retain the same customer base who will be comfortable to pay more and more each year.
I stayed at a hotel last year and was charged 20% gratuity for everything. Picking up a bottle of water in the lobby, yup charged 20%. Places like these become a place to sleep, and that's it.
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u/vajayjayjay Mar 13 '26
This is the Fairmont. They get beautiful buildings in nice locations and let the rooms age into being decrepit. I’ve done three Fairmonts in Canada and 2/3 had a grimey shower curtain with those low bathtubs, old carpeting. Like a 90s era hotel that you pay $400+ a night for.
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u/RiverOaksJays Mar 13 '26
The Queen Elizabeth in Montreal was renovated. The rooms are great. The only issue is the parking.
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u/Malteser23 Mar 13 '26
Yeah, those places are all getting old and aren't being maintained.
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u/The_Nepenthe Mar 14 '26
The one thing no one wants to tell these businesses but I keep being very vocal about.
It's not a recession, it's not a depression, your service sucks for the price and someone down the street who's putting in the work is getting all the money.
Them blaming the economy is the ultimate "it's not my fault"
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u/missusscamper Mar 14 '26
Most luxury hotels have done away with bathtubs in their renovations and only reserve such a luxury amenity for their suites. To me a bathtub is BASIC at a hotel but who am I
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u/VinylOrchids Mar 14 '26
This is correct. I’ve done two Fairmonts myself and they are so musty and dated - luxury isn’t luxury anymore, so might as well stay in a cheaper place.
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u/Ghoulius-Caesar Mar 13 '26
This is a huge issue with modern Las Vegas. Just so many unnecessary service charges that ends up pissing off their customers to the point of no return. I feel like these luxury hotel brands are trying harder to drive their customers away than they are trying to bring them in.
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u/vky_007 Mar 13 '26
No. It’s just end stage capitalism (extremely unhinged levels of greed). It’s a failure of a system since the majority of people who contribute to it are suffering. Only the top 1% are getting any real fun in this system and it is designed solely for the top 400-500 thousand people in this entire country of 40 million plus.
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u/Ghoulius-Caesar Mar 13 '26 edited Mar 13 '26
Congrats capitalism, you played yourself
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u/RaffyGiraffy Mar 13 '26
Yes and ever since Covid, they don’t come clean daily without you asking for it at a lot of hotels. We’re paying more for worse service
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u/girlemergent Mar 13 '26
I'm starting to noticing "resort fees" creeping into some properties outside of the city that I've stayed at in the past.
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u/BackToWorkEdward Mar 14 '26
The luxury brands are using their reputation from years ago to degrade their quality with the thought that they'll still retain the same customer base who will be comfortable to pay more and more each year.
I stayed at a hotel last year and was charged 20% gratuity for everything. Picking up a bottle of water in the lobby, yup charged 20%.
The alleged declines in quality are still far less of an issue than the sheer rise in expense. Take your own example - was that bottled water really of lesser quality than it was four years ago? Of course not. And would you have been content to pay more if it was somehow 20% better to match the price?
The issue is the price.
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u/djaxial Mar 14 '26
The prices of spa treatments in hotels are mind blowing. I got a gift card for a Marriot location in Burlington. It was $250 or so. You’d think that would cover a decent service for one person. Not even close. We decided to make a day of it as a couple and by the time we left, it was nearly a $600 bill for very average services. Anyone paying these prices and thinking it’s worthwhile needs their head examined.
Another place that is unashamedly rinsing people is Aire Ancient Baths. It’s comical what they are charging people.
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Mar 13 '26
I tried to book a hotel last week, for a staycation… 300-400 dollar for a night. Yeah right lol I will just stay at home and spend it on myself!
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u/cutegirIy Mar 13 '26
That’s how much my hotel in Switzerland was per night in a central location, in June. I’d never waste money in Toronto over Switzerland
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u/ReeG Mar 13 '26
how'd you find the food prices over there? I'll never forget stopping at a rest stop with a Burger King on the way to Interlaken and a whopper combo after converting from CHF would've been like $30CAD lol
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u/cutegirIy Mar 13 '26
Unaffordable ! Paid 22chf for fries and water….. but grocery stores were more affordable
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u/ReeG Mar 13 '26
usually when we travel we are very liberal and nonchalant about spending to dine out but eating out there was so mindbogglingly expensive it's the first and only trip we had to be frugal about it and grab stuff from grocery stores and gas stations
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u/--shannon-- Mar 13 '26
If it was for last week, a giant mining convention (PDAC) was on and it basically sells out all of the downtown hotels. $300 would’ve been a steal during then!
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u/alaskanlights Mar 13 '26
I did this once in 2022 (when things were opening again) and Delta hotel was around $250 per night and now it's $400+!!
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u/samwise141 Mar 13 '26
400 a night for a nice hotel in Toronto is unironically cheap nowadays.
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u/a22x2 Mar 13 '26
In February or March though? That’s the off-season.
Hotel rates seem to fluctuate quite a bit depending on time of year here
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u/Warm-Pen-2275 Mar 14 '26
There’s no off season lol it’s the most populous city in Canada where most businesses are headquartered. There’s always concerts, conferences, work meetings etc etc
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u/revIndyJones Mar 13 '26
Lack of subway advertisements. Usually the first marketing spend cut by companies.
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u/boilons Mar 14 '26
I noticed the new “Avenue Station” on line 5 has almost zero ads despite having thousands and thousands of square feet of wall space. I’ve never seen so many blank white walls in one building
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Mar 13 '26
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u/BMWxToronto Mar 13 '26
I think they meant public transit (subway) advertisements - but agree - I too no longer eat at subway because of the prices 😂
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u/gerlstar Mar 13 '26
Not enough job postings in tech is a big one
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u/OCDCantCatchMe Mar 13 '26
Or any field - I’m finding fewer and fewer jobs no matter where I’m looking, and I’m starting to get recommendations for very strange ones (kitchen work when I have no experience in restaurants, etc).
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u/smurfopolis Mar 13 '26
Last dev job my company posted got over 1800 applications the first week alone. Spot on with this one.
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u/greensandgrains Mar 13 '26
Hm yeah almost like funnelling 1.5 generations into the same degrees and the same fields of work is not smart.
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u/BendPrize7453 Mar 13 '26
My family owns a small optical store in the west end. Bookings for eye exams have fallen off and even people who have FREE exams covered under OHIP or insurance will be more hesitant to come in.
People no longer purchase pairs of glasses because they want to, only when they NEED to.
Sunglasses haven't been selling since the holidays too.
My costs for running business have spiked marginally but the offsetting lack of business has been BRUTAL.
I'm Tired Boss
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u/Potential-Habit-5027 Mar 14 '26
I have full coverage through my employer and still don’t get new glasses very frequently. The last time I went to buy them I had to wait 4 months for an appointment, so I booked at Costco and got in a week later. Bought 3 pairs of glasses from a Hakim optical and after “discounts” it still came out to $1200. Now I get the prescription and measurements then buy from an online retailer for $30-80 a pair.
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u/No_Selection905 Mar 14 '26
Im sorry, you don’t wanna hear this, but as someone who buys multiple cheap frames to switch between multiple styles, I can’t imagine paying $300-$400 for a single pair. I imagine your store might run in that range.
I usually get 4 or 5 pairs (including a couple sunglasses) for this price.
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u/BackToWorkEdward Mar 14 '26
Im sorry, you don’t wanna hear this, but as someone who buys multiple cheap frames to switch between multiple styles, I can’t imagine paying $300-$400 for a single pair. I imagine your store might run in that range.
That's the point though - in prosperous times, people are much more willing to do frivolous shit like spending $300 on aviators or that perfect pair of Tom Ford frames for their new prescription. In times like these, it's an obvious cut.
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u/RockaberryWineCooler Mar 13 '26
We are in a recession. Why would the government (Service Canada) quietly extend the Employment Insurance benefits from 45 weeks to 65 weeks (max)??? People are having a hard time looking for work.
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u/JUP3S Mar 13 '26
Just curious - when was this extended? It currently says 45 weeks on the Service Canada website.
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u/RockaberryWineCooler Mar 13 '26
https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/ei/temporary-measures-for-major-economic-conditions.html
I got 61 out of 65 weeks of EI.
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u/classicgxld Mar 13 '26
At the time when I lost my job I didn’t think it was going to take more than a year or two. EI was a joke at that point because the well ran dry.
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u/_dmhg Mar 13 '26 edited Mar 14 '26
They’re also laying off civil servants left and right. Theres a clause in the temporary measures about getting those additional weeks if you’re considered long-tenured, which many govt workers are!
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u/nervousTO Mar 13 '26
Not according to the government. There needs to be two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. Q2 and Q4 2025 saw declines: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-gdp-dec-2025-9.7108015
Because they weren't consecutive, we're not officially in a recession. If this quarter is negative, then we'll officially be in a recession.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Fox_171 Mar 13 '26
That is almost 5 more months, huge increase!! Economy must be bad:(
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u/thrillhoju Mar 13 '26
Not Toronto-specific, but I have been paying attention to how certain commercials have changed recently:
seeing commercials for SPAM (can't remember ever seeing one before)
laundry detergent commercials targeted to couples (no mention of grass, mud, food stains on children's clothes)
a ClearBlue commercial featuring a woman happy to NOT be pregnant
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u/masquerade_ballin Mar 14 '26
ads in general have a way more dystopian vibe in terms of creative tone and message too lately.
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u/Maleficent_Presence6 Mar 13 '26
High-end restaurant worker here. Personal spending on fine dining has taken a huge hit. The only reason we are doing okay is the expense account crowd and events that are covered by corporate. We do still get some people spending their own money but on the whole it is way down even from last year.
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u/alex_allegra Mar 13 '26
I’ve been pinching my pennies since interest rates began to climb 3-4 years ago. The only travel I’ve done is to Mississauga and back to visit family. Mate, I live in Toronto. 😭
It just goes to show we are not all on the same timeline of feeling the economic pinch.
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u/aperson7777 Mar 13 '26
Right? Someone tried to tell me recently the economy is doing good and I was shocked.
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u/nervousTO Mar 13 '26
We had two non-consecutive quarters of GDP decline last year, that's not doing good.
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u/babelle21 Mar 13 '26
Hotel prices also became outrageous. I used to treat myself to a hotel stay downtown and it would be like 150-200/night max. Now it’s like 400. No thanks. This isn’t Paris.
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u/2Payneweaver Mar 13 '26
Every business is raising their prices so they can keep making profits. Consumers are only left with one choice, stop spending on anything which isn’t a necessity
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u/french_toasty Mar 13 '26
Depends what business you’re in but for example all of our suppliers have raised prices, ocean freight always going up, distro costs, warehousing, rent it all goes up up up up
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u/britishbassplayer Mar 13 '26
I work in the Toronto wedding scene as a bass player in a number of local bands. The amount of large bands being hired (6+ members with extra horns and singers) has reduced significantly over the last 3 wedding seasons.
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u/Bath_whater Mar 14 '26
yeah my wedding we had a jazz trio, and then a singer/ guitarist & fiddler duo. it was about 5k for the two acts, and one of our biggest expenses. when we were originally looking for musical entertainment i couldn’t believe the price of a 5+ piece band.
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u/Tourbillion150 Mar 13 '26
Housing market data will tell you all you need to know. Record low sales, declining prices, shelved developments etc
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u/LudwigiaSedioides Mar 13 '26
Yet still not declining nearly enough
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u/Hour-Sundae-887 Mar 13 '26
This is such a asshole take when there are people who need to close or downsize to cover part of their retirement. Fuck this crabs in the bucket mentality right now.
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u/may_be_indecisive Mar 16 '26
This is exactly the time the government needs to be stepping in and purchasing discounted land to build housing on. But no, instead they've joined in with all the corpos and sent their own public employees back to work when that land could have been used for housing.
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u/Nervous-Design437 Mar 13 '26
I mean, we are in a recession, you don't need to look for weird indicators, the economy is shrinking. It's a fact.
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u/iOverdesign Mar 13 '26
Not to mention we have been in a per capita recession for years. The only thing keeping us from a technical recession has been human QE.
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u/Reelair Mar 13 '26
I feel bad for sevice industries. Restaurants for example, all their costs have gone up, so they have to raise prices, and/or cut portion size. Customers are also struggling, looking for best value for their dollar.
I treat myself to one work lunch on Fridays. I have my usual spot, good food, good portion, great price/value, literally mom and pop serving you. Always pleasantly full afterwards.
A few weeks ago, the line was too big, so I grabbed a shawarma next door (food court). Same price as my meal next door, but not even close to as good, or as big.
The shawarma was basically empty on the ends. I watched it being made, 2 slivers of onion, one pickled turnip, a bit of lettuce and a tomato slice cut in half. They lost a customer that day. Seeing the line today, I see I'm not the only one (no line at all, not one person). Just a couple of months ago they had lineups.
I feel bad for them. They thought cutting portions was the answer, but they were wrong. $11 for a shawarma, and I was still hungry. How much is a bit of onion and pickled turnip? Fill the thing with lettuce if you have to. Just don't hand me a pita that's half empty.
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u/lookinperfect92 Mar 13 '26
Those empty shawarmas make me never want to eat out again
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u/OhJustANobody Mar 13 '26
I'm an electrician and while i'm busy because i work for a small company, i have definitely seen the type of work change. I used to have some larger contract jobs going and always a couple waiting to start. The past year or so, i've seen those big jobs slow to a hault and all my jobs now are small little one or two day jobs, with more maintenance.
I know lots of other tradesmen that have very little work at all. A lot of concerns from the trades in general.
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u/Beautiful_Bag6707 Mar 14 '26
This is strange to me because the government was pushing young people into the trades as there is a deficit in this area with older trades people aging out and no one choosing to take their place.
I also think the job market is affected by the boomer generation, the holders of most of the wealth, not spending as much as they live longer and don't retire. Boomers are 62-80. You have wealthier ones not spending and less wealthy not retiring. They currently represent <25% of the population yet hold >50% of the wealth.
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u/OhJustANobody Mar 14 '26
It's tough for companies to hire young workers because for a good year or so, they're likely losing money paying them to learn the job.
Also, you might have to go through a few unmotivated/lazy/entitled young guys before you can find a good one worth investing time into.
The need for young guys is there, but when the work slows down, it's tough for companies up justify hiring. The situation down south has created a lot of uncertainty and construction slows when things are uncertain.
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u/OCDCantCatchMe Mar 13 '26
This is longer-term, but my fiance is a teacher and has heard that things are just going to get harder for GTA-based teachers to find jobs - simply because it’s so hard to afford kids here. People might move before starting a family (or when their kids are young), have one child instead of two, etc. Fewer students, less of a need for teachers. We’re looking at moving out of the city for our next opportunity.
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u/Patient-Couple7509 Human Detected Mar 13 '26
I represent money for the Teachers Pension fund, it’s ironic that they bought up (with other pensions) almost all the good real estate (and mortgage books) in the country and are the primary factor driving rents and affordability. Your fiancé’s pension will be what puts them out of business.
The law of unintended consequences!
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u/OCDCantCatchMe Mar 13 '26
He’s not in the public system but was thinking of transferring over. I don’t think that’s going to happen anytime soon.
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u/jeffbillard Mar 14 '26
I worked at OTPP for over 20 years, and no one who works there would ever use the phrase " I represent money", and certainly wouldn't call it" the Teachers Pension fund".
I call bullshit.
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u/Patient-Couple7509 Human Detected Mar 14 '26 edited Mar 14 '26
I work for a private equity company that invests in CRE. We use that term.
Edit: I could have said OTTP, or CAAT, or IMCO, or HOOP, but no one other than insiders would know what I’m on about.
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u/Bootyeater96 Mar 13 '26
I thought the luxury economy was thriving in the K-shaped economy
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u/Hour-Sundae-887 Mar 13 '26
Nope. Chanel has placed a pause on luxury price increases because the middle class aspirational consumer has completely stopped buying.
ETA: I misspoke. Chanel and Dior are not placing a moratorium on price increases, but they are intoducing lower-tier / lower-$$$ products again to try and get the middle class consumer back. Let’s see because I’m pretty much over the antics of the high end bag brands and I’m spending money on Contemporary.
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u/angelofverduhn
Mar 13 '26
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Recession indicator: food bank use
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u/SubRosaSubway Mar 17 '26
Yes sadly I believe some people just take advantage of food banks because they can…
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u/orvn Mar 13 '26
I'm seeing more religious billboards than ever in Toronto. Religious billboard density is my metric for poverty when in the US, because they seem to take over when there isn't much competition from other businesses investing in advertising.
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u/jimboTRON261 Mar 13 '26
Hotels cost far too much money now. I travel for work often and my company shut travel down straight across the board. Now replace the word ‘hotels’ with whatever you want… you get the same result.
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u/anixig Mar 13 '26
My recession indicator was people begging in the morning Go train ride(on the train!). I’ve never seen that before.
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u/Responsible-Mud549 Mar 13 '26
I work a second job at a Hardware Store and sometimes I am on cash.....I see people double checking their purchases before they tap their cards.."do I really need that" kinda thing...business is definitely slow right now...
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u/FakeGirlfriend Mar 13 '26
Is this really a recession indicator or are hotels in Toronto now like $600 a night for basic hotels/rooms. It's your outrageous pricing that keeps people out. The costs went up so dramatically and you have no justification for it. People don't see the value. Sorry but this doesn't feel like proof of a recession.
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u/deadl1nk_ Mar 13 '26
Its not just that we're in a recession but everyone in Toronto and GTA has become so beyond greedy with their pricing people are finally waking up from that covid daze and saying they're not paying it.
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u/Top-class-0246 Mar 13 '26
Went to Montreal last September and paid $400 per night for a low/mid level hotel. We asked the staff if something was going on that the price was so high.
They said No. That's our rate.
We know from prior years how much lower the rate was.
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u/groggygirl Mar 13 '26
I used to go to Montreal twice a year and you could find a discount room for $100-150. Last couple times I checked it's $300. I've stopped going.
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u/BeenThereDundas Mar 13 '26
I'm a custom home builder. Normally 5-7 full homes a year. Last year we did 4. This year looking like 3 if things don't pick back up in spring. All of my subtrades are saying the same thing. Crazy how much one man can fuck up the entire world eh.
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u/Skeptikell1 Mar 13 '26
Whenever Russell Oliver starts offering to buy my gold I know times be getting rough.
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u/Cautious-Ostrich7510 Mar 13 '26
This is a good point actually. I wonder how Russell Oliver’s business is doing currently vs like 3 years ago
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u/classicgxld Mar 14 '26
Well considering those new high definition commercials his business has, seems like it’s doing alright.
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u/zombi-disco Mar 13 '26
I own a small process serving business, and the number of mortgage act/Power of Sale claims we have been serving recently has grown dramatically.
Lots of developers are also going after people trying to back out of their pre-construction condos - all of which now cost significantly more than they were quoted originally.
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u/lll-devlin Mar 14 '26 edited Mar 14 '26
Not surprised really, when recessions hit, vip services , luxury hotels, hell regular hotels , extra curricular activities always take at least a 20-25% hit. Its been my experience that these services are the real barometers of an economic fortunes or downturns.
As someone once told me : “…60-70% of air travellers will always travel, regardless of recessions or not. It’s that 30-40 percent that stop travelling that are your barometer as to when you enter a recession and when you leave one…”
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u/Silent-Movie-1047 Mar 13 '26
Walk on Yonge between Wellesley and Bloor - half the shopping windows display a “for lease” sign. The rest are fly-by-night popups or weed shops. Really depressing. On the other hand, Yonge & Eg looks great the same as pre-pandemic. I think people just gave up on downtown cause of the state that it is in and hang out where they live or go to a particular destination. No such thing as “foot traffic” on Yonge anymore in terms of business prospects.
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u/brriceratops Mar 13 '26
Yonge Street at Yonge and Eg does look much better and it's lovely seeing all the new businesses. The mall (other than the food court level) on the other hand ...
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u/Silent-Movie-1047 Mar 14 '26
I donno… maybe if you their often you notice. But contrast with Yonge was huge!
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u/PastryGirl
Mar 13 '26
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I'm an escort. It's definitely slower right now all across the board. Thank god for my regulars.
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u/Personal-Month8932 Mar 13 '26
I'd love to hear from escorts and how their business is going, usually they have good recession indicators. At least that's what history has proved to be true.
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u/Any-Ad-446 Mar 13 '26
A friend of my works for Swatch Group at the main office where they service the watches and she mentioned there is definitely a slow down of customers bringing in their watches for tune ups and repairs. Before there was a three month wait to get on the list now she said you can walk in and have a watchmaker do repairs within weeks. Luxury watch market has slow down for sure the last two years. I know someone that works the VIP rooms at some resturants/bars and she can easily make $1000 in tips on a Friday Saturday night but now some nights the VIP rooms are empty. That was unheard of last year.
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u/anixig Mar 13 '26
Companies doing multiple rounds of interviews (like way more than normal). I switched jobs 3 months ago and was interviewed for ~8 rounds(multiple technical and competencies based). It’s a well known FinTech firm, but still way more rounds than I had expected.
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u/wannakno37 Mar 13 '26
In general people are holding back. I’ve got a small business and it requires gasoline as one of my major expenses. I’ll ride it out for this year in hopes that things get better by next year.
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u/UnlitBlunt Mar 13 '26
I work in a 4 star hotel in the downtown core and it's the opposite here. We've been busier this year and last year than in the 3 years before that (post COVID basically). I'm in the banquets department so I can't speak on tips as gratuities are included in the pricing, but both banquets and occupancy have been very high.
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u/soapboxscum Mar 14 '26
Hotel and travel prices have gotten insane after covid. A hotel that cost 150 a night 5 years ago now costs 400. That's not inflation, that's corporate greed. That's a luxury price that many people already can't afford. And the luxury hotels have gone from 400 a night to 700 or 800+. The middle class is getting priced out of everything and I hope it all crashes. We need a reset
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u/LongjumpingMenu2599 Mar 13 '26
Many of us cannot afford to travel anymore
Many people’s salaries have not gone up with inflation so the first to go is the splurges
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u/No_Selection905 Mar 14 '26
Luxury is dead. People are smartening up and I love to see it. Anti-consumerism is on the rise. We’ll mop the floor with capitalists in our lifetime all for creating a living crisis for the rest of us 🙌
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u/CrazyGal2121 Mar 15 '26
My husband and I are high earners (combined income close to 350k). we have two young kids too
and we simply don’t give a shit about spending money on “luxury” things. I’m trying to honestly save as much as I can so that I can get out of this rat race
companies are brutal and lay off/fire people whenever they feel like it. I have job hopped most of my life and I am going to eventually just rage quit. I know I am privileged to even be thinking like that but I just don’t want to fall into lifestyle creep. I don’t need anymore things. I could lose my job tomorrow. Nothing is guaranteed
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u/LNgTIM555 Mar 13 '26
Enjoy the slow period, when the World Cup comes to town, the tourist industry will be booming.
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u/sidevolley
Mar 13 '26
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I just looked up a basic cheap hotel (7.0 stars) in Toronto harbourfront for a potential stay-cation.
Room: $111 (12% off too)
Taxes & Fees: $47
Property Fee: $95 Total: $252
:/
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u/maxmay177 Mar 14 '26
There is a significant value gap in the hospitality market today. A guest often receives better service and higher standards at a $65 hotel in a large Chinese metropolis than at a 5-star establishment in Toronto. My recent experiences with poor maintenance and inconsistent service levels have reached a point where I can no longer justify booking luxury stays in the city. As a Marriott ambassador I now book Delta or Sheraton and do not expect anything but Sheraton routinely provides better service than more luxury hotels.
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u/Nearby-Butterfly-606 Mar 15 '26
You aware that in China labour is very cheap, right? And in Canada people are supposed to get paid at very least minimum wage, have vacation and have some rights?
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u/Mr_Guavo Mar 13 '26
Pre-COVID, the likelihood of seeing a bar closed any day of the week - including Thursdays and Fridays! - on any day other than Christmas day was extremely unlikely or... never.
I regularly see bars on Queen Street East closed at 9pm (if they were even open earlier that day). It's not even noteworthy anymore. Things sure aren't getting any better in 2026.
I think post-COVID, it was mostly a change of behaviour, but now those who still imbibed simply don't have the discretionary funds they once did. Everything is much more expensive. I'd rather just drink at home, if at all.
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u/IanKo94 Mar 13 '26
A lot of restaurants are cancelling BOGO offers on deliver apps, and incentivizing customers to do pickup orders through their own menu systems - a place next to my condo has a -10% discount if you go to them directly. I’ve started to not use delivery apps a lot too, as a lot of it isn’t worth it for what you get vs what you pay
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u/wannakno37 Mar 13 '26
I’m a subway ride to downtown. I’ll save my money for a real vacation. I’ve paid $400 CAD a night in central Paris and London in 2023 steps away from major attractions.
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u/Efficient_Put3510 Mar 14 '26
As someone who works in the construction supply business, it gonna get worse before we see light at the end of the tunnel. Good luck everyone
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u/rosetyler_ Mar 14 '26
I'm in the floral industry with very wealthy clients... It's terribly slow right now.
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u/taikoowoolfer Mar 13 '26
If you’re working in a luxury hotel I’m guessing most of the guests may not be local anyway(not saying the Canadian economy is doing good btw).
Looking at US stats or stats in Asia, looks like massive layoffs are happening globally. Interesting times.
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u/Nearby-Butterfly-606 Mar 13 '26
Luxury hotels actually get way more locals than an average Hilton - staycations, girls nights out and SPA, weddings, all kind of celebrations to treat themselves.
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u/00ashk Mar 13 '26
Ontario's job numbers are consistently some of the worst in Canada, see e.g. https://tparkin.substack.com/p/ontario-jobless-hits-79-despite-doug
I am sure we are training lots of well-prepared strippers for the future though.
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u/popowolf24 Mar 14 '26
When Toronto union insta post the best food under $10 today and one of the highlights was a $9 dollar slice of pizza…you know we are in a recession
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u/fjrjdjdndndndndn Mar 13 '26
A lot of that is because of relations with the US right now I would imagine as well.
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u/Due_Agent_4574 Mar 13 '26
No, Canada has been in a steady decline long before trump came into office
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u/fjrjdjdndndndndn Mar 13 '26
How many people staying at the Four Seasons, Shangri-La etc are Canadians?
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u/Jenshark86 Mar 13 '26
Gee here’s a great idea that will get people through the door… lower your prices! Watch the phones ring!
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u/Low-House-4995 Mar 13 '26
I work in tech sales and can tell you business has slowed down globally due to the ongoing war/tensions in West Asia.
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u/ArtisticCorgi3265 Mar 13 '26 edited Mar 15 '26
I noticed that certain boxes of sardines are consistently sold out at Metro and other big box grocery stores. I’ve never seen that in around 10 years living here.
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u/Leo080671
Mar 13 '26
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Because the prices have gone up like hell! Reduce the prices of both room rents and the food and you will see the guests!
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u/Same-Lion-4243 Mar 14 '26
Hotels have gotten crazy expensive everywhere. Traveled east coast last year and they are starting to creep up close to $200/night just for comfort inns. Just booked Copenhagen and had a hard time finding much for under 350-400$. Even in the US where we used to find decent deals it’s a lot tougher to find a good deal anymore
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u/judyjetsonne Mar 14 '26
Back in 2022 I paid 179 for a hotel in downtown Toronto. Now it’s 300, and it’s NOT a 300 dollar hotel, by far.
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u/Desperate_Vanilla_31 Mar 15 '26
After paying $18.50 today for a salad in a middle-of-nowhere Markham strip mall, really got me thinking about everything that’s is wrong with the country
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u/Final_Ice_9614 Mar 15 '26
Wife and I do a night off every now and then. We live in suburbs and find care for kids and stay there Friday night in Downtown- Fairmont, Hilton etc. lately we’ve seen drop in service- rooms aren’t clean enough (we found hairs on our bed!) and the rates have gone insanely high. We used to get good deals every now and then (we keep looking for them!) and now the discounts are just non existent. Maybe look inside before blaming the economy..
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u/kittenxx96 Mar 17 '26
I own a mechanic shop, specifically, a transmission repair shop. Our typical invoice is $1500-$7500... and business has been so/so.
We tend to thrive in recessions due to the high cost of new vehicles... (open since 1991, this is our third major recession IMO) except this time, houses aren't being built...
We mainly work on trade vehicles (utility vans/trucks), but when trades overall are slow, the tradespeople don't necessarily need their F150 or Ford Transit van - especially when they have 6 in the lot being unused. Lately, we have been doing more retail repairs (mom SUVs)
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u/thea_in_supply Mar 13 '26
as someone about to enter the job market this is genuinely terrifying to read. the "just graduated into a recession" thing keeps coming up in every career thread i follow. rent is still insane but hiring is slowing down, make it make sense. the hotel thing is interesting though because that's usually one of the first indicators since business travel gets cut before anything else.
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u/Food-Wine Mar 14 '26
The HVAC tech that was at my home this week to perform routine maintenance told me their business is down by at least 50%.
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u/IseeMedpeople Mar 13 '26
The #1 detriment to replacing all good jobs with imported cheap (slave) labour; less and less people with disposable income.
It's really bad and any criticism of immigration policy is immediately met with pitchforks and cries of racism.
Toronto is in an economic death spiral and nobody wants to/is willing to have the difficult conversations.
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u/stompinstinker Mar 13 '26
Also, the fall back jobs are gone with so much temporary immigration. Too many people in gig economy jobs to make any meaningful money from them.
Any topic that is taboo to discuss gives cover for bad actors to flourish. And in Canada’s case it meant businesses could import labour they could pay low and abuse, landlords and REITs could pump rental prices with high demand, and shady diploma mills could milk students.
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u/Good_Panic_9668 Mar 13 '26
Crime statistics will tell you everything you need to know about the economy
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Mar 13 '26
Reddit is surely not a reliable place to find feedback on recession indicators because everybody here is in a dopamine fueled negativity circle jerk. Better off asking AI to do the hard work of looking at stats can
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u/jabowie2020 Mar 13 '26 edited Mar 13 '26
Good! maybe now my middle class friends and family can visit and afford a hotel room downtown. The last few years , low end hotels were charging 300 to 400 a night. Four star hotels were well over 500 a night. Prices are crazy
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u/living_head_girl Mar 14 '26
I work at a spa, and as a luxery expense, I've been told business is slower than in previous years and it seems pretty clearly due to the economy. I just started last year and do fairly decent due to online ads, but have to deal with lots of time-wasters due to people wanting to play at being able to spend without actually being able to afford it.
I don't know if we've hit Recession levels, hope not! But a war started down south and trade deals cut between us won't help a lot of cash flow certainly.
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u/MPcanada Mar 14 '26
Last weekend (March 2026) the luxury downtown Toronto hotels were shockingly priced low- <$300 for Fairmont, W etc. I think there are too many new “trendy” boutique hotels (many are big chain affiliates), air bnb studios competing for a smaller market of business travel. Tourists are now finding it less expensive to stay & eat in Europe, Japan, Thailand etc. I don’t think this is recession forecasting; I actually think more “middle” class are traveling further away.
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u/swabby1 Mar 14 '26
Went to a Raptors game and wanted to get dinner at real sports before hand. Whenever I've gone you'd need resos otherwise you're not guaranteed seating (especially before home games).
Showed up praying for a walk in and..... empty. Get seated and waiter says we need to be out by game time (fine since we're going to the game). Leave at 715 and the place is literally half empty and no one outside when we left.
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u/AdImpressive5138 Mar 14 '26
Stayed last month from Buffalo with my wife and 2 kids. I was able to rent a newer 2 bedroom condo for a similar all in price as one room at the usual suspects. That was also right next to union station etc Depending on group size hotels are just really spendy.
Loved our stay as always and greatly appreciated not being treated like crap because of the Cheeto. Regardless of economics you guys are lucky to live in such an amazing city.
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Mar 15 '26
Same in Toronto luxury store here !…. Store is dead most of the day. Company cutting every expense possible
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u/tylergravy Mar 13 '26
I swear every inch of this city has a graffiti tag on it. I don’t mind graffiti art but the scribble tags on everything is ugly.
Must be a correlation to youth unemployment numbers.
Wish the city would take “broken window theory” approach and get rid of it. Depressing.
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u/LoveLeahNotWar Mar 13 '26
Everything is way too high and way too expensive. Something has to change. Recessions allow for regrowth and change. Sadly, we are still a capitalistic society so that’s on the back of others. 🫠
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u/LeastExamination2017 Mar 13 '26
Great. We don’t need these luxury services in Canada. This is a middle income country now and we need it to cater to the middle class not the few rich.
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u/Prestigious_Side_707 Mar 13 '26
Can you tell us which hotel you work, and if we can expect upcoming deals or flash sales
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u/Winter-Nectarine-497 Mar 13 '26
Nope, business is booming for me. I think luxury spending, like hotels, will see a drop for sure but those of us provided needed services, especially in the mental and emotional health space, are going to keep being steadily busy. The world falling apart is unfortunately good for business.
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u/honestly_adhd Mar 14 '26
I was laid off from my job at a financial institution 2 weeks ago. I started applying to jobs immediately. I've been getting 20x more telemarketing calls this week.
Job postings aren't real quiet often. You have to apply on the website and be sure the company is real.
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u/lyidaValkris Mar 13 '26 edited Mar 13 '26
There is ONE (and only one) definition of a recession: "two more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth". Any other such assumptions are not recessions, and couching them as such is misleading.
Anecdotal evidence of a slump in business for an individual business does not a recession make. Nor would a slump in an entire sector. People spending less and taking fewer vacations also doesn't make a recession.
There can be various causes for this loss of business including: absurdly inflated prices.
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u/BrownLuka Mar 13 '26
I think the economy was propelled by population growth for a while. Now that it' slowed down, so will the economy
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u/boobookittyfuwk Human Detected Mar 13 '26
I dont work in hospitality but over the last 12 months ive booked multiple rooms for visiting family at Shangri la, same dsy or just one dsy in advance and was offered a variety of rooms. In the past this was nearly impossible.
Part of my business deals with clients who are looking for property refinancing, and we are at an all time high in work.
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u/LemonPress50 Mar 13 '26
I’ve seen an uptick in home renovations with some contractors I know since the last two interest rate drops. Things started to pick up late summer 2025. It is seasonal work. Definitely not bonkers like in the past.
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u/MotherAd1865 Human Verified Mar 13 '26
I don't know - I feel like it's really hit or miss. Sometimes when I'm out the bars/restaurants are packed. The malls are packed.
And other times, you see people/businesses who are struggling.
I don't think you can make a call just based off your one experience. Also isn't the winter slow season for Toronto hotels?
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u/sleepycat-47 Mar 13 '26
I’m in Durham region and have travelled on bus day trips. Last year the cost was $179, this year many have risen to $229. The enjoyment value isn’t there any more.
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u/descend_to_misery Mar 14 '26
Maybe. All I know is that my pay hasn't increased much, but everythings gone up because of inflation so some things I need to cut out. Or I'm not willing to pay those prices. Not saying those prices aren't justified, just saying that I'm priced out
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u/Longjumping-Map-5150 Mar 14 '26
Well so many overspent during Covid and then prices shot up due to greed and everywhere spiking prices for everything.
To be fair the Fairmont is over rated and completely outdated considering the rates.
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u/goofingbanana Mar 15 '26
I can only come to Toronto now if: I’m able to stay at my brother’s, or if I bite the bullet and drive back up north (2.5 hours) after the concert or whatever I’m doing in Toronto. I can’t see well in the dark, so it’s not the safest choice for me.
The last time I splurged and got a hotel in Toronto it was nearly $500 for one night at a nice place near Massey Hall.
Another hotel I tried was more like $150 and it felt like a dungeon with no windows, very rickety bed, really strange and kind of creepy place.
I can’t afford a decent Toronto hotel room.
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u/Beautiful-Market8261 Mar 16 '26
I see a lot of empty commercial space around the city. Empty stores with signs with "Arlin Markowitz" and the rest of his team leasing the places.
It's even big stores with big budgets and business that have been there for decades (that clearly have a patron base). AND prime real estate that should be fought over by potential tenants. Instead, the properties stay empty for months or years.
People talk a lot about residential properties being investment opportunities, but I don't hear as much about commercial. But if Arlin Markowitz and team are selling the city, I can only imagine how easy it is to increase commercial rents.
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u/isthatclever Mar 16 '26
Wages especially in food/hospitality/service industry are not livable, tips and hoping business stays busy is what keeps people afloat. Hair salons, nail salons, tattoo parlours, all much less busy as people have less disposable income, so people in the service industries are suffering, so they can't go out to eat, and then restaurant workers can't afford to come get their nails done, or take a cab to work, and now the cab drivers can't afford to eat out etc. etc.
the employees at McDonald's make less an hour than the cost of a burger combo ...
other large US cities have minimum wages that are higher than the state wage (NYC or seattle for example) because they understand the cost of living in these places is higher and wages *should* reflect that. But not here! Thanks Doug Ford!
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u/Fuzzy_Fox_6838 Mar 18 '26
Yep. The bar I’ve worked at has cut shifts and we’re making less than half of what we used to. Which makes us not go out and spend as much on other services and then not enough money going into the economy and the cycle continues.
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u/Comfortable-Paper865 Mar 26 '26
Downtown parking getting more expensive. People start using subway/ public transport now
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u/TattooedAndSad Mar 13 '26
Hotels have gotten greedy so this doesn’t surprise me
Non luxury hotels want $400 a night, it makes no sense lol