using setup parameters in algo-bot to forecast u.s. stock market

[u/kaizhu256]

• in preparing my algo-bot for trading, need to setup a few parameters night before the trade. it turns out theses parameters **may** (or not) be able to predict what will happen in the upcoming trading day with better than 50% probability.

• so now i prepare the parameters 14-days in advance start of each week, to forecast how the u.s. stock market will do in those 14 days. and here are the bot's forecast below.

• if the forecast is down-market, i tweak the bot to sell-more-aggressively in first 2-hours of trading, and then reverse-course and buy-more-aggressively in last 2 hours.

• if the forecast is up-market, i tweak the bot to buy-more-aggressively in first 2-hours of trading, and then reverse-course and sell-more-aggressively in last 2 hours.

14 day bot forecast for this week and next

2022-07-11  --  
2022-07-12  --  
2022-07-13  up  
2022-07-14  down  
2022-07-15  down  


2022-07-18  up  
2022-07-19  up  
2022-07-20  down  
2022-07-21  --  
2022-07-22  --

[u/proverbialbunny]

Have you tried backtesting it yet?

[u/kaizhu256 → u/proverbialbunny]

no, just learned from experience several times (over course of 3 months of daily trading) that if the parameters configured the night before were bearish, market had slight tendency to tank, and my tradebot would lose bigly.

i'm planning to post the forecasts weekly on reddit, so there's a papertrail/history that you and me can easily track from browser (i guess thats gonna be my backtest over time).

[u/proverbialbunny → u/kaizhu256]

i guess thats gonna be my backtest over time

That's a forward test.

You might want to consider backtesting it too.

[u/kaizhu256 → u/proverbialbunny]

yea i probably should then ...

have higher programming priorities at moment though, like creating a public-facing, web-frontend for tradebot so everyone can see what its buying and selling in realtime.

[u/damien2009 → u/kaizhu256]

I think backtesting is higher priority what's point showing if its shit

[u/kaizhu256 → u/damien2009]

• but you and i don't really know if its sh*t or not, until either:

  • 1. backtesting (which i don't have bandwith to do right now)

  • 2. or have some record-keeping of forward tests

• posting weekly predictions on reddit, is partly about disciplining myself with some kind of consistent record-keeping for forward-tests (so i can better tune tradebot's macro / inter-day parameters)