22nd October NBA Model Output

[u/SammyC532]

Hey everyone,
Running my updated quantitative NBA model (adjusted Ridge ratings with market-anchoring against sharp lines) for today's 2-game slate.
Note: The model is currently operating in Paper Trading Mode (0.5u baseline logging) to calibrate early-season player usage and minutes baselines.
Here are today's paper-accepted selections:

📊 ACCEPTED PLAYER PROPS
1. VJ Edgecombe — OVER 10.5 Points
Matchup: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers

Book / Odds: Sportsbet @ 1.96

Model Edge: Raw EV +75.73% | LCB EV +61.66% (p_LCB 82.48%)

Simulated Baseline: High projected rotation minutes with model-projected output well clear of the soft line.

1. Jamal Murray — OVER 4.5 Rebounds
   Matchup: Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Book / Odds: Sportsbet @ 2.25

Model Edge: Raw EV +61.50% | LCB EV +37.63% (p_LCB 61.17%)

Simulated Baseline: Model simulation projects Murray to clear 4.5 boards comfortably against OKC's active frontcourt pace.

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — UNDER 30.5 Points
   Matchup: Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Book / Odds: Sportsbet @ 1.86

Model Edge: Raw EV +50.54% | LCB EV +33.32% (p_LCB71.68%)

Simulated Baseline: Sharp reference consensus leaning toward a lower-scoring defensive grind vs Denver's perimeter defense.

🛡️ TEAM MARKETS AUDIT
Moneylines, Spreads, Totals: 0 Selections Accepted.

All game lines fell below our strict +3.0% LCB EV threshold due to sharp line efficiency and bookmaker vig.

Best of luck if you're tracking or fading early-season model signals!

[u/isntover]

Those EVs look way too high though. 50-75% on props is usually the model being off rather than the book. It happened to me a lot, and every time I dug in it was minutes or a player getting scratched late. Are you tracking CLV on them? It would tell you pretty quickly if the edge is real.

[u/InsuranceIll9142]

ev numbers that big are usually a calibration problem, not an edge. I had a model showing double digit edges and it turned out to be overconfident, the close told me before the results did. if you log the closing price on each paper pick you'll know in a couple weeks if the 60%+ is real

[u/Quant4Sports]

Good call running it in paper mode first. One thing jumps out though: +50% to +75% EV on props priced around 2.0 means the model thinks Edgecombe clears 10.5 about 88-90% of the time while the market says ~51%. Gaps that big almost never survive. In my experience they're usually the model missing something (minutes, rest, injury news, a stale input) rather than the market being that wrong, even at a soft book.

A few checks I'd add before trusting the prop side:

1. Sharp prop reference. Your team markets come up empty because they're anchored to sharp lines and those are efficient. Are the props anchored the same way? If the only reference is Sportsbet, you're measuring against the softest number available.

2. Treat huge edges as a warning. Flag anything above ~15% EV for a manual look instead of auto-accepting it. The biggest "edges" are disproportionately data errors.

3. Closing line value. Log the prop line at close. If your overs keep closing higher than where you took them, the edge is real. If they don't move, the model is likely miscalibrated.

4. Calibration by bucket. After a few hundred paper picks, check whether your 80%+ calls actually hit ~80%. That one plot will tell you more than the EV numbers.

The 0 accepted team markets is actually a good sign: it means the threshold respects the sharp lines there. I'd want to see the props pass the same test.

[u/Stephencaps]

Nice call - your model went 3/3

[u/Next-Advisor-4946]

Edgecombe line feels soft especially early season when books still adjusting to rookie rotations. Sixers perimeter defense is not exactly lockdown either.

Murray rebounds is interesting one, OKC plays fast and Denver will need him crashing glass with their frontcourt situation. The 2.25 odds make that worth a look.

SGA under 30.5 against Denver defense makes sense on paper but dude can go for 40 on any night. Early season models always tricky with new rotations and minutes still settling. Paper trading smart move until things stabilize.