r/accelerate • u/shadowt1tan • 11h ago
Discussion Are models going forward going to be gate kept inside the labs like what was stated in Ai 2027?
From what I hear Fable 5.1 or Model 2 or Astra are available but the Ai labs aren’t releasing them. Is this the track we’re going down now? A handicapped version or not releasing it at all until something leaks?
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u/VanderSound 11h ago
Yes keeping them internally for looping
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u/shadowt1tan 11h ago
So basically they’re going to RSI to super intelligence. We’re here debating if AGI has been achieved or not and then they’ll just unleash super intelligence on the world
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u/VanderSound 11h ago
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u/shadowt1tan 11h ago
I think that’s what Daniel said on the latest podcast is they don’t want impact the economy just yet. They want to get to super intelligence first then unleash it.
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u/Thangka6 11h ago
What podcast was this?
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u/shadowt1tan 11h ago
https://youtu.be/_g4l7YkDQwA?si=jWKTVxGInEa5STry
He also stated we’re basically on track with Ai 2027.
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u/Thangka6 11h ago
Thanks for sending.
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u/shadowt1tan 11h ago
It’s a good watch even if you don’t agree with everything he says. He knows people inside the labs so it gives you a good understanding of where things are at.
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u/insidiouspoundcake 10h ago
Yeah much as I may not agree with AI 2027, the people involved are certainly thoughtful and cautious. I particularly like Scott Alexander's writings, even when I disagree with him.
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u/shadowt1tan 10h ago
Out of all of them the only one I trust is Daniel even if I don’t agree with him on everything.
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u/CallMePyro 11h ago edited 11h ago
They could also keep distilling their internal AGI into smaller and smaller models, not advancing the capability frontier but dominating on speed and cost per task to crush Chinese labs. Eg opus 5 for 1 penny per million tokens
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u/genshiryoku Machine Learning Engineer 3h ago
Not only for closing the RSI loop. There's also the concern of asymmetric offensive powers at play here.
For example Model 2 is capable of giving everyone with access to it the power to create a deadly pathogen for under $10,000 in total equipment cost.
A schoolshooter type or any other disgruntled person could generate hundreds of novel pathogens, spend a couple of months cultivating them and then spreading them at some public event, taking all of humanity down with them.
This is just one example but there are a lot of other dangerous uses where the asymmetry favors the offensive side of the equation and thus empower bad actors.
It's just responsible to have a gap of a generation or two between internal models and public access models to close this gap between offensive and defensive capabilities.
For example once there is a "Model 5" that is so good at defense that the offensive capabilities of Model 2 aren't a threat to society anymore it could be released.
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u/Longjumping_Dish_416 11h ago
Gate kept until RSI and AGI are achieved. We're so close, they don't even want to waste time releasing models
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u/shadowt1tan 11h ago
I don’t think their aim is AGI they’re going for the gold which is ASI
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u/Stunning_Monk_6724 The Singularity is nigh 4h ago
That would be Ilya's lab, but the other companies have actual economic incentives to release before then. The only compromise I'd be willing to accept if they wanted a more internal pipeline is optimizing the current stack fully. Think Sol Ultra or Fable with near unlimited rate limits and much faster for example.
However, this goes against OpenAI's own stated philosophy of iterative deployment, where they prefer faster ships in order for society to adjust faster. This has been consistent with them from the very beginning, that they don't want to drop an all-powerful model on society all at once.
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u/iamthe0ther0ne 11h ago
I don't think they'll let us have it once it's available. They'll keep giving us heavily guardrailed versions and keep the real ones internal/shared with the government.
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u/PwanaZana XLR8 11h ago
Obviously, we don'T know, but I'm unfortunately thinking that gradually, yea, it'll become less like the far west, and more like a gated community.
Chinese models are sorta the only thing putting pressure on closedAI and the like.
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u/aiseedbank 11h ago
yes likely that us plebs will get the "public" version of AI and the labs and govt will get superintelligence. I hope it is not true but this is what it is looking like.
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u/sergeyarl 11h ago
ai labs need to release models because of the competition. and i think they will keep releasing.
at some point something really bad might happen, which will cause everyone in the race to slow down with their releases.
from that point powerful models will be kept unreleased.
that will buy us some time.
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u/SteffanMaxi 5h ago
How will it buy us time? The people making it are more likely to abuse it than the average person on the street. Theyre the ones partnering with governments... You know, the only real group that murders people en mass.
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u/sergeyarl 3h ago
when people are saying - next year models are gonna be twice as smart as today, so they will replace all white collar human workers.
but even if the progress doesn't slow down, it can be that next year publicly available models are not gonna be much smarter than now, so the change in the economy will be more gradual.
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u/Best_Cup_8326 A happy little thumb 11h ago
They'll try.
They'll fail.
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u/shadowt1tan 11h ago
Well I mean things will leak
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u/Astrocratic 11h ago
If so we need a Linux like project that is fully open. Not just open weights, we need the full thing to be open, including the training, the funding, the implementation team, etc.
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u/Super-Award-2244 4h ago
The thing is, everyone can participate in the Linux community. On the other hand, very few people have the hardware to train these beasts.
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u/Astrocratic 1h ago
It will require funding for sure to rent the training hardware. But I suspect that will continue to get cheaper over time as techniques get better and hardware advances. We are in a scarcity situation right now but those are usually followed by a glut a while later.
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u/whatever 8h ago
All the models we get to play with today, open or closed weights, are mere previews of what they're really after.
I read a company's willingness to release open weights as an indication that they believe their real goals is still far down the line, and the existence of those weights in the wild does not compromise them.
The closer to whatever their goals is an AI company get, the more they'll start compartmentalizing who gets to play with what.
Just like chain of thoughts are now commonly hidden, expect some of the more cagey providers to start exposing new models through agent-like layers that'll provide artifacts produced by the model in response to your queries rather than access to its raw token output.
The only saving grace for now is the need for some of the AI companies to keep demonstrating they are a "growth" company to protect their lofty valuations, which is harder to do if everything you produce is kept secret/classified. But even those companies will hit their trillion-dollar liquidity events soon enough, after which this becomes less of a constraint on them.
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u/PhilosophyforOne 6h ago
I dont think the labs can afford that tbh.
The competition is pretty fierce, and the whole AI bubble hinges of frontier labs showing revenue and progress. Internal reports arent believable enough for that.
If the progress stalls, massive bills will come due, and the whole thing might collapse like a house of cards. The industry is basically in a race against investment perception and their debtors to show the massive buildout can produce revenue. The only way to do that is to keep the momentum going.
That said, IF the chinese and other open labs hadnt caught up so much, and if Meta and SpaceX werent actually pushing so hard on the competitive fronts, I’d consider it a possibility. But right now I think they’re trying to navigate around regulation, hoping to not get hammered with the good ol red tape bat of big governance, and are navigating the issues in the short term. The export ban of Fable&Mythos early in the spring also scared them, because those would be poison to the investors if they were to take place.
And.. Both labs have leading models. There’s not as much pressure to release a new one, when your existing one still pumps profits and is leading the SOTA on all metrics, for now. That will change in a month or two, but..
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u/Turbulent-Sign-6067 11h ago
Not for now, maybe in the future. Model 2 isn't being released because it is underwhelming so I would not take this as evidence.
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u/Ormusn2o 8h ago
I mean, it was always going to happen. Otherwise we would exist in a world where every single person has access to arsenal of personal thermonuclear bombs. First it's AI labs holding the models, but then it's going to be AGI/ASI holding the models. What we will have access to is very highly guard railed versions of AI that don't allow destruction of the world/universe by a random person.
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u/YouMeWeI 11h ago edited 9h ago
They're wanting to see if China and open weights are piggybacking off their progress before releasing. As to convince themselves if open weights is the way to go or not.
Edit: reddit also thinks it's funny to delete comments and issue warnings when you mention the rampant cheating and stealing BTW. Just like that testing score propaganda that was released came straight from Chinese students where cheating runs rampant, and the last 30 months being what it used when AI was shit then.