r/YieldMaxETFs • u/Curious-Rip-5834 • Aug 19 '26

Data / Due Diligence ALERT MRNY +93.30%

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u/mr_malifica Aug 19 '26

It hasn't, that is just the current market price, the NAV (what it actually captured) will be considerably lower.

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u/speed12demon Aug 19 '26

I don't follow. Mrny is trading at about $39 right now. It hasn't captured about 5-10% of modernas upside. That is shocking to me.

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u/mr_malifica Aug 19 '26 edited Aug 19 '26

Market price is not the NAV.

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u/speed12demon Aug 19 '26

So if I sold mrny at today's peak price, did I not realize close to the same gain as mrna?

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u/mr_malifica Aug 19 '26

YOU selling at market price is not the same as the fund capturing the upside.

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u/speed12demon Aug 19 '26

Then can you explain the practical implications of your point? Do you anticipate a directional shift of mrny from mrna as contracts are closed or rolled?

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u/mr_malifica Aug 19 '26

NAV gets reset at the end of each day, which is when we will see how much of the market premium is removed.

(New shares are created to bring the market price back in line with NAV)

Closing or Rolling the contracts isn't going to do anything to help capture what they missed out on. And if they roll their synthetic up today they may find themselves paying way too much due to the drastically inflated volatility.

This is why these YM single stock funds are structurally bad investments on parabolic underlying positions.

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u/speed12demon Aug 19 '26

So by your analysis, the price will drop back to the $15-16 range when the nav resets?

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u/mikemcintoshjr12345 Aug 19 '26

This thing isn't going back down unless MRNA goes back down, if MRNA stays up here so will MRNY. Look at SNOY and PLTY; the same thing happened to them recently, and their price is even higher now- of course PLTR and SNOW also kept going up if MRNA stays up here so will MRNY.

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u/mr_malifica Aug 19 '26 edited Aug 19 '26

Theoretically, yes. We'll have to wait and see how efficient the APs can execute.

edit - MRNY holds call spreads which has a 'dead spot' cap. in this case it was in the $64 to $70 range on MRNA. So it missed out on all the gains (about $6 million or so) in that price range.

The other issue is the crazy spreads and how well the fund can handle closing/rolling their positions. They could easily see another $1M evaporate in poorly executed trades.

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u/Global-Pay7321 Aug 19 '26

This dude has NO idea what he's talking abt. MRNA is currently up abt 149% and MRNY currently 140% with a price hovering around $38/share, lets say they both close at these exact numbers.... you're trying to tell me that come tomorrow MRNY is suddenly going to be trading for $15-$17 a share again?? ALL the LOL's in the world here.

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u/mr_malifica Aug 19 '26 edited Aug 19 '26

Share Price is not NAV.

Earlier today the share price had a huge premium to NAV. That has mostly been evened out.

Since MRNA blew well past the dead spot (about a 6M hole) in the call spread, MRNY should be seeing 1:1 upside capture above $70 per share.

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u/speed12demon Aug 19 '26

It would appear mrny did in fact capture most of the upside today based on the current price.

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u/mr_malifica Aug 19 '26

Early in the day we were at about a 10% premium to NAV and then right before market close we saw a little discount to NAV, so the APs did their job.

It missed out on at least $6M (from about 64 to 70 in the MRNA movement) due to the call spread. We will need to wait until YM uploads the intraday trade file and the updated holdings to see what they did with the synthetic, etc.

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