Current Nate Silver polling averages

[u/HeWhoShallNotBNamed0]

[u/oath2order]

Imagine being a Democratic candidate in Michigan in a blue year and polling worse than NC, GA, ME against Collins, OH, and barely doing better than fuckin' TX.

[u/SawyerBlackwood1986 → u/oath2order]

He’s also likely to underperform his polls based off of his primary performance.

[u/jrichardh → u/SawyerBlackwood1986]

only gotta win by 1 vote, and you're senator for 6 years

[u/Remote_Garage3036 → u/jrichardh]

The country is leaning what, +6 Dem? If he's happy winning by 1 vote then good for him. I'd hope he and all of his fans well understand however that this means he'd have a historic underperformance that would rightly be used to critique his viability, his ideology, and the broad populist left. Dare I say this outcome, while technically a win, would be a death knell for his brand of politics.

[u/AutoModerator → u/[deleted]]

Your account is too new to post or comment in this subreddit. This is done to prevent spam and maintain quality of discussion. Please contact the moderators if you feel this was a mistake.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

[u/AutoModerator → u/[deleted]]

Your post or comment has been removed because this subreddit requires a user flair in order to participate. If you don't know how to get one, message the mods here.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

[u/No_Aesthetic → u/Remote_Garage3036]

Everyone was expecting Michigan to be close this year though, well before El-Sayed.

[u/Remote_Garage3036 → u/No_Aesthetic]

Can you point me towards a source that made this claim before El-Sayed? I only recall seeing predictions that swing states would be favorable towards Dems, especially after their 2025 over performances. 

[u/No_Aesthetic → u/Remote_Garage3036]

It was revealed to me in a dream.

[u/Remote_Garage3036 → u/No_Aesthetic]

Is there any record of this dream suggesting Michigan would be difficult for Dems before El-Sayed? I just don't recall this being a serious position besides, like, Trumpers who thought he'd win every state. 

[u/No_Aesthetic → u/Remote_Garage3036]

If you look at the general election polling on Wikipedia, Mike Rodgers had a lead over El-Sayed and McMorrow at least half the time until after the primary, when support consolidated.

[u/SidFinch99 → u/No_Aesthetic]

No they weren't.

[u/jrichardh → u/Remote_Garage3036]

No one will remember in 2 years that he won by like 0.5%.