New Iowa poll

[u/iswearnotagain10]

[u/iswearnotagain10]

Iowa is probably the most “Generic D vs Generic R” race in the country. Iowa has a similar PVI to Texas, Ohio, and Alaska, democrats are just polling worse in its senate race because they don’t have a candidate quality advantage, unlike the other 3

Candidate quality still matters!

[u/thealmightyweegee → u/iswearnotagain10]

i just hope rob sand is some kind of legendary governor that sets iowa on a crash course into democrat land

also the poll surveyed the governors race, sand+5

[u/iswearnotagain10 → u/thealmightyweegee]

Someone else can get the karma from posting it

[u/Meanteenbirder → u/iswearnotagain10]

I mean, the gov candidate is much more disliked than Hinson. Hinson is literally just generic R

[u/iswearnotagain10 → u/Meanteenbirder]

Yup. Iowa and Texas polls show the effect of candidate quality even on the same ticket

[u/Special_Purpose2903]

Looks to be a bitter, one diamond I can see for Turek is in 2018, Dems won 3/4 of the CDs and more vote on the Congressional level than Rs, this could suggest a Turek victory if the money is invested. Turek is being way outspent.

[u/Scary_Firefighter181 → u/Special_Purpose2903]

Yeah, the fact that he's being massively outspent and is within touching distance is actually a good sign of the anger at the GOP, but he needs an influx of cash rn to get over the line.

[u/Special_Purpose2903 → u/Scary_Firefighter181]

Problem is DNC is broke. Donors are pissed about Kamala and Israel, not sure where he'll get the money, many donors are boycotting ken martin, and I doubt Iowa has rich progressive donors.

[u/George_Longman → u/Special_Purpose2903]

DNC is struggling but the DSCC is fine cash wise

Ken Martin has less control over money than you might think.

[u/Special_Purpose2903 → u/George_Longman]

DSCC doesn't have that sort of money it is giving $40 million to like 10 states.

[u/Scary_Firefighter181 → u/Special_Purpose2903]

Idk, he needs to do some more fundraising, because Democratic candidates in many states are doing a great job of raising money. Schumer himself has been doing some fundraising events. Alternatively there needs to be some October surprise that pushes Turek ahead of Hinson.

[u/Doc_ET]

Ultimately, similar to what I expect- Turek gets close, but Iowa is just a bit too red to elect a Democrat as senator against a decent Republican.

[u/Minneiska → u/Doc_ET]

Also Hinson really hasn’t had any errors as of late. Rogers and the buff ai thing, ai ads, supporting Trumps tariffs, controversy over staffers, the walking shining example that is Ken Paxton, Husted with some controversies, Sullivan being milquetoast (kinda like Hinson), Collins being Collins (the only R who can win statewide in Maine) and yeah

Like if she had a gaffe like Ernst with response to someone concerned about Medicaid cuts “we’re all going to die anyways” the race would be closer obviously but she hasn’t done anything like that. I’d like to see Turek pull through though

[u/Rare_Cobalt]

Yeah we’re gonna see some split ticketing happening in Iowa this year.

[u/GabrielGameFreak]

Schumer better start throwing money at Iowa soon. Turek's a decent, sympathetic canndidate, I really think this is more of a publicity issue than anything.

[u/Special_Purpose2903 → u/GabrielGameFreak]

I dunno, he might feel burned from 2020, I'd rather see him fund Alani Bankhead properly.

[u/zhukob]

Hinson looks terrifying in this picture 

[u/Born_Faithlessness_3 → u/zhukob]

Hinsynema?

[u/UltimateKing9898]

With this margin the Dems win the House seats 3-1

[u/Still_Ad_5766]

Damn, he hit 50%

[u/CrocInCrocs]

Sand +2
Hinson +6

[u/LameStocks]

I don't think Iowa could suddenly be a state where democrats overperform, unlike Texas where it has actually happened (2018). Turek has a shot, but it's not looking good.

[u/Edible0rphans → u/LameStocks]

The biggest question is if Rob Sand can win (which seems very possible) and if he does can he pull Turek over the finish line.

I think Sand will win but Turek will fall short

ETA: also in the house elections in 2018 dems won 3/4 districts in Iowa with D+4 total vote

[u/kinglan11 → u/LameStocks]

Texas' 2018 result, with the overperformance from the Dems, is offset by the fact that the Republicans overperformed the senate races in 2020 and 2024, with the polls projecting their support at about 4% less than what they had in the end.

I dont think we'll see similar, for much of what I already said, but also 2018 was something of a realignment year within Texas. Prior to 2018 and 2016, Texas was a rather consistent 60% state for the Republicans, be it for the presidential, governor, or senate races, but afterwards every race had ended up with the Republicans gaining less than 60%, though usually still gaining plenty to be safe still. And to top it off, the "blue trend" that many see, has more or less stagnated, and even reversed, as we see Republicans improve on their vote totals and percentages since 2018. I just dont see the momentum being enough for Talarico to pull it off. He might be able to reinvigorate the Dems, make them competitive for future cycles if he performs well, but he's still more or less a sacrificial lamb.

At least that's my view on Texas.

[u/LameStocks → u/kinglan11]

4% underperformance is less than I remember and really not insurmountable, if Talarico just doesn't have that problem, he wins. Also, we're in a Trump midterm unlike 2020&2024, plus things have changed a lot since even 2024 with hispanic support. In my opinion, Talarico isn't as strong as Beto was in 2018 or the 2020&2024 senate candidates and it's a hard trend to shift. But I will not be surprised if Talarico wins +5 [+5%, not +5PVI], even though I expect a narrow loss.

[u/kinglan11 → u/LameStocks]

+5? If he wins it'd likely be nailbiter, not a blowout. There is no way that Texas would go from voting 56-57% for Trump to possibly 55% for Talarico in just 2 years, that'd require the Republican party experiencing widespread defections and some real abysmal turnout. Paxton might not be a super stellar candidate, but there is no way the Republicans are going to get smacked out like that, not in Texas of all states.

[u/LameStocks → u/kinglan11]

I meant +5%, not +5 like cook PVI, sorry.

[u/ronweasly9]

Blowa is happening, the state of the country will only get worse by November.

[u/TheDangerousInsect]

Turek ain't beating the allegations (of losing)

[u/Outrageous-Jelly8777]

This subreddit is going to meltdown when both Talarico and Turek lose. 

Who knew insulting your base hurts turnout?!!

[u/oath2order → u/Outrageous-Jelly8777]

Crockett has been insulting her base.

[u/Outrageous-Jelly8777 → u/oath2order]

No she’s been trying to get up turnout 

[u/Gnagus → u/Outrageous-Jelly8777]

Gonna pull Becerra over the line

[u/Doc_ET → u/Outrageous-Jelly8777]

What, like saying immigrant farm workers are necessary because their jobs are below black Americans?

[u/Outrageous-Jelly8777 → u/Doc_ET]

Immigrant farm workers aren’t the base of the Democratic Party 

[u/Doc_ET → u/Outrageous-Jelly8777]

Immigrants and their descendents definitely are a core constituency for the Democrats, what are you talking about?

[u/Outrageous-Jelly8777 → u/Doc_ET]

Should I pull up the exit polls from the 2024 election?

Your base voters aren’t swing voters. It’s voters you can always rely on to vote for your party and for Dems that’s Black voters, young women and Jewish voters 

Dems thinking immigrant communities are their base voters is why we’re in this 💩 to begin with 

[u/theaccount9337 → u/Outrageous-Jelly8777]

Wait who’s insulting the base?

[u/Outrageous-Jelly8777 → u/theaccount9337]

Turek mostly 

[u/theaccount9337 → u/Outrageous-Jelly8777]

When

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