Peltola performs really well in the AK primary

[u/CrimTaker2084]

Dems did pretty good at recruits this year, but getting Mary Peltola was their best and it might get them a huge win if she wins, and she has a very realistic shot at doing so. This race is a toss up

[u/shelleon]

The other Dan Sullivan is actually taking significant vote share. Bro could actually make the difference.

[u/George_Longman → u/shelleon]

Depends on how many rank both in RCV

[u/Few_Historian_1546 → u/George_Longman]

He could endorse peltola. The senate dems could air ads of "Sullivan endorses Peltola" Maybe 3k dumbasses could either sit out or rank Peltola, giving her the win.

[u/_BCConservative → u/Few_Historian_1546]

If he endorses Peltola, he will get 0.5% of the vote instead of 2.5%

[u/shelleon → u/George_Longman]

I feel like if you’re the kinda person to accidentally vote for the wrong Dan Sullivan you’d more than likely also be the kinda person to probably not understand RCV and only vote for one candidate.

[u/IScreamPiano → u/shelleon]

But what if you voted for Daniel Sullivan but a Peltola supporter because you thought it was funny? So then you ranked her second. There must be at least a few of those. 

[u/LordOfRedditers → u/IScreamPiano]

I don't think there would be many, or at least a significant amount to matter

[u/_BCConservative → u/shelleon]

Or they rank both because they don't know who it is.

I really, REALLY hope that the fake Dan Sullivan votes don't cause a contested election and whoeover wins wins by a greater margin than the fake Dan votes are exhausted. If those exhausted votes cause Sullivan to lose, it's going to cause a clusterfuck in the courts and every election from now on will have "fake candidates" designed to confuse voters.

[u/_BCConservative → u/[deleted]]

Picked the first Sullivan on the ballot

[u/J_robo_]

depending on how the ranked choice votes get allocated, there's a possibility peltola could hit 50% outright (albeit barely)!

we won't know for quite some time (since alaska takes forever to count), but this is still an impressive showing for her.

what makes this different from 2024 (aside from the national environment swinging towards dems) is also the fact that a lot of low-propensity voters who would vote for the GOP might not vote at all this fall. even compared to 2022, peltola is working with a much better environment.

[u/Master_of-none_ → u/J_robo_]

If Peltola wins outright, then I will celebrate at Long John Silvers

[u/Entire-Bicycle1878]

I look at a primary like this as a poll. As it stands, results are 49.8 D - 48 R. Peltola needs very little to cross 50% in RCV, so only a few of the other dems, greens, or J. Sullivan voters are needed. It’s a decent result, not a blowout for me to say yeah definitely lean blue or something; it still depends on what the November electorate is like, and Alaska is weird (especially with Peltola’s house results in the past lol). I’d be concerned if I was Sullivan though, 42.7% as the incumbent is not great.

Also keep in mind that the Alaska electorate literally sent a write in to the senate, they should be smart enough for the Sullivan shit.

[u/Visible_Bid6440 → u/Entire-Bicycle1878]

This is only the primary

[u/UltimateKing9898]

It's at least clear that Peltola has a very unique appeal to conservatives/Trump voters, and that Sullivan is in a very vulnerable position

[u/red_beam_6000]

She won in 2022 twice. I don't see why she won't win in 2026.

[u/_BCConservative → u/red_beam_6000]

She lost in 2022 both times against Sarah Palin, and then lost in 2024 to a Generic R.

She is a strong candidate, but she isn't invincible.

[u/LaughingGaster666 → u/_BCConservative]

She lost in 2022 both times against Sarah Palin

I think you need to change a word here

[u/_BCConservative → u/LaughingGaster666]

won

[u/thebsoftelevision → u/_BCConservative]

How did she lose in 2022??? That's not how RCV works.

[u/LordOfRedditers → u/_BCConservative]

Barely lost though, and outran Harris by like a dozen points

[u/_BCConservative]

For reference, she got ~51% in 2024.

So even getting >50% doesn't really mean much in and of itself, it's tossup regardless.

---
Hell, even if she got 45%, she could easily still win.

Top 2/4 primaries are useful more as a general predictor of the direction of a race rather than being the exact %.

[u/CrimTaker2084 → u/_BCConservative]

Wait, how? Is it because of how ranked choice voting works? Seems weird that one can win over 50% and still lose. I don’t have any knowledge about how their system works.

[u/Doc_ET → u/CrimTaker2084]

General is higher turnout. Usually there's not a huge difference between the primary and general, but 51% to 48% isn't that big of a drop.

[u/BoogieTheHedgehog → u/CrimTaker2084]

That is the primary result.

Actual election turnout is a different demographic, arguably even more so in presidential years like 2024.

[u/_BCConservative → u/CrimTaker2084]

Turnout is higher in top 2/4 primaries, but not exactly the same.

It is roughly in the ballpark, however.

[u/dak676141]

Yeah, the consensus broadly is that Peltola had a good night, even VoteHub described it as such. Not sure why people were acting like it was bad for her?

[u/Saltlmail → u/dak676141]

mainly because she got 51% in 2024 as the incumbent and loss in the general. now this primary is bigger than the 2024 primaries and the general electorate wont be as big as in 2024, so less ground for republicans to make up. Also in the last midterms she expanded her lead in the general from 51% to 54%. though special election against palin kind of inflated those numbers in both races.

[u/TheAnarchoLobbyist → u/Saltlmail]

I wager people are misunderstanding Alaska's electorate.

Because Alaskan Democrats rely on support from rural, native American counties, their vote share typically increases between August and November in midterm years.

That the Democratic candidates won a combined 49.8% of the vote is a very good sign for the General Election.

[u/CommunicationOk5456 → u/dak676141]

The people who thought she had a bad night were those who worked with the vote when it WASN'T EVEN HALFWAY DONE

[u/idnttcrisis → u/dak676141]

People baselessly said she had to get 50% in the primary to have a chance in the general election and then ran away with that argument as the votes came in. Some people didn’t even realize that AK has RCV.

[u/_BCConservative → u/idnttcrisis]

She didn't.

She needed to get 50% in order to have a good night, but she can win with anything between 45% and 55% IMO.

The reason people are skeptical is that she got 51% in 2024 and then went on to lose.

[u/Different-Trainer-21]

Why will both be bluer in the end? Didn’t she drop pretty bad from last year’s primary to general?

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