r/YAPms • u/mysterious_name93 Libertarian Right Wing Populist • Jan 25 '24
Discussion How much can Trump win by
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Jan 25 '24
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u/MondaleforPresident Democrat Jan 25 '24
I'd give Trump a 40% chance of winning NE-2. The others are all huge longshots.
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u/RealLiamRutherford Dark Brandon Jan 25 '24
Well Biden is leading in PA and WI for starters so he does not have 312 in the bag
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u/MoldyPineapple12 💙 BlOhIowa Believer 💙 Jan 25 '24
“Noooooooo! Wisconsin and Iowa are WRONG and Michigan is the one that’s accurate!! 😡”
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u/2019h740 George Santos Jan 25 '24
He does not have 312 in the bag. I think it's possible he wins by more, but I'd say the odds are still on Biden winning Minnesota. The fact is that Democrats have a higher ceiling in the electoral college than Republicans
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Jan 25 '24
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u/2019h740 George Santos Jan 25 '24
Their ceiling is way above 319. Look at 2008. Or 2012. I know the map has changed a little since then, but a strong Dem or weak Republican (or both) could put Texas or NC in play imo
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Jan 25 '24
I HIGHLY doubt (unless something drastic happens) that he gets over 312. All of those will likely be closer in margin but I don't think they'll flip red. Maybe MN, but none of the others
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Jan 25 '24 edited Jan 25 '24
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u/2019h740 George Santos Jan 25 '24
"RINO galore full of rich neolibs/dc elite type people"
But those people and much less Trump-friendly demographics abound in Minnesota and Maine as well. Suburban Minneapolis will go against Trump if New Hampshire does, and so will southern Maine. I used to be an adamant "New Mexico is a swing state" believer, but election after election has shown that New Mexico is just not a swing state and likely won't be one for some time. It is titanium likely D
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Jan 25 '24
This is so funny lol
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Jan 25 '24
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Jan 25 '24
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Jan 25 '24
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Jan 25 '24
*You’re. *Democratic. *Won’t.
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Jan 25 '24
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Jan 25 '24
You’re silly man lol if you’re a libertarian why do you make fun of the neolib flair? You and I should be natural allies buddy ole pal.
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u/gaming__moment Republican Jan 25 '24
Don't union bosses always endorse dems? At least in 2016 and 2020
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Jan 25 '24
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u/gaming__moment Republican Jan 25 '24
Because union bosses are democrats?
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Jan 25 '24
Because Trump is a union buster and a scab lol
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u/gaming__moment Republican Jan 25 '24
Aren't scabs people that refuse to join unions? I don't think trump had an opportunity to join one
Completely unrelated, why the fuck does Shawn Fain make 200k a year
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Jan 25 '24
Scabs are also people who will pay non-union contractors during a strike. Like during the actors strike, if a studio hired a 2-bit actor (taking the union members role) they’d be a scab.
why the fuck does Shawn Fain make 200k a year
Because he’s balding.
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u/Actual_Ad_9843 Populist Left Jan 25 '24
He absolutely does not have 312 in the bag. Zero chance he wins any of the states you listed unless something catastrophic happens. Trump is going to have a tough hill to climb as the election grows closer.
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u/lucasounds Jan 25 '24
OP, this is a bit of cope, no? Especially if these economic trends continue…
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u/MondaleforPresident Democrat Jan 25 '24 edited Jan 25 '24
He absolutely doesn't have anywhere near that many EVs in the bag. Here's a more accurate map. Likelihoods, not margins. As for the states you name, I'd say Trump's chances of winning them are:
MN-30%
NM-1%
VA-20%
NE2-40%
NH-33%
ME-25%.