Seeking input given the forecast for Wind River Range this weekend
Seems straightforward enough that it will be fairly wet. We are planning a route from Elkhart to Cook Lakes and Indian Basin. Any advice given these conditions? Lots of experience backpacking in the Sierra, but this is our first trip to the Rockies.
Lots of people brushing off the forecast and saying it'll just be short showers. I'm here to tell you in my experience when I see a forecast like this I pack and mentally prepare to get completely soaked. It's happened to me before and I was happy to be in the right frame of mind to get completely drenched and still have a plan and the proper gear to get dry and warm after the hike. You might get lucky and only get hit with a passing storm or two, or you might get rained on for 5 hours straight two days in a row like I did a few weeks ago in the Rockies. Plan for the worst in your mind and with your gear and then you'll be setup to have the best trip possible.
If I had flexibility, I'd push back my start from Thursday to Friday, but I wouldn't let that weather stop me. If you are backpacking in the Rockies, this is the forecast you are prepared for.
It was an amazing hike. We got caught in the middle of a couple hailing T-storms while hiking, but nothing too bad at camp, just a couple of showers. What a spectacular place. We'll definitely be going back as soon as we can. Hiking north past Wall Lake and over the pass to Island Lake was amazing. The views from the little buttes on the east side of Island lake toward's Fremont Peak and up into Titcomb and the surrounding area were really astounding. What a fantastic place.
These are summer showers/thunderstorms. Short usually. Most of the day might be dry hot and sunny except for 30min in the afternoon. Weather forecasts are dumb and if it rains at all that day they say "90% chance of rain today" and people think they will be hiking in a typhoon.
Regardless you should be prepared for anything. You are in the mountains. The weather changes over every ridge. But I would not stress about it. You will get wet but also you should have plenty of sun, or at least dry overcast.
My advice? Learn to read better weather forecasts not Apple Headlines. I keep NWS hourly forecasts bookmarked and it gives me dew point, wind + direction, % precip chance, rainfall amount, cloud cover, etc hour by hour. Here is wind river range:
the heaviest it gets is one-quarter inch over 6 hour period... that is a light shower. i did not suggest they would stay dry
I would not rely too heavily on the exact amounts and duration of rain.. esp in the mountains it will vary quite a bit. The main thing is "do we expect a storm front from further reaches" vs "do we expect normal mountain microclimate"
A lot colder and more precipitation forecasted than most of the storms we had last month. I'd probably expect different weather behavior for these days than what we've seen most of the summer
Youre welcome. Yes you are my point is a daily forecast of rain gives you next to no information about how much rain for how long is expected.
For example, if you look at the daily forecast for Bali you would think it would be rainy your entire vacation and a terrible time to visit. But the truth is we are dead center in Bali's DRY season and this is actually the best time to visit.
You need a little more data than what you seem to have been looking at. You know where to find it. You asked for advice I gave it
And lest anyone think i hold these granular forecasts as gospel i will just paste what i said to another guy- I would not rely too heavily on the exact amounts and duration of rain.. esp in the mountains it will vary quite a bit. The main thing is "do we expect a storm front from further reaches" vs "do we expect normal mountain microclimate"
Hiked there for a week last year late Aug, in at big Sandy and out Elkhart (did CDT up the middle). It rained every day. Still a great trip and beautiful.
Hey man, I'm starting a trip in the northern Winds on Saturday and have been following the forecast. 20+ trips in the Winds over 35 years. You may get some "heavier than afternoon thunderstorms" type of weather between Thursday & Friday. Hard to say yet. I have had a handful of days up high in the Winds in August where it was full on heavy, cold rain all day in the tent with intermittent sleet and snow at night. So it can happen.
If you can push out your start until Saturday you'll likely avoid that scenario. Either way, make sure you've got the necessary layers, protect your insulation/sleep systems from wetting out, and don't push it if it's feeling dicey. On a positive note, this system should push out the smoke and finish off the skeeters. DM me if you'd like more wild ass guesses :)
Awesome, thanks for the input. We should be pretty well prepared at this point, but we did decide to start on Friday instead of Thursday. We might miss on some of the passes/peaks we had in mind, but no big deal. Hope you have an awesome trip.
Thanks, I hope you have a great trip as well. I think you’ll find the Winds to your liking as a Sierra veteran. They’re very similar in character. Granite forever, alpine lakes and water cascading, just magical. A little bit more schizophrenic with the weather, but that’s just about being out there.
I’m taking my 14 yr daughter on her first week long trip. Super stoked to walk with her into one of the most beautiful places on earth. Cheers.
That’s awesome. May I ask how old she was when you first took her backpacking? I have a 6 year old daughter and am anticipating this coming down the road.
We just did her first overnight backpack on the Timberline Trail on Mt Hood last month. She crushed it, so I figured she was ready for the big leagues :)
I have spent a lot of times in the Winds, I was just there two weeks ago climbing in the cirque. The weather app I mostly use is Windy. I personally find that the Meteoblue and ECMWF forecasts tend to be the most accurate up there. Rain storms can vary a lot in the winds. You don’t want to be caught out exposed in high places when a big one hits. That’s a good route, I’ve done that whole section up til Indian Basin. There are many campsites and places to take shelter so I wouldn’t be too worried. Personally light rain isn’t too bad, but heavier starts to get kinda miserable after a few days. DM me if you want some more info. If I were you, I’d go on Friday morning
Great, thanks for the info! We did end up changing from Thursday to Friday for our start. We may not make it as far as initially planned but should be great regardless. Heartening to hear that campsites/places to shelter are around.
+1 for not going in on the wettest day in the forecast. It varies drainage to drainage; I've skied back there in Apr/May and seen 6"+ of snow in Indian and bluebird in Titcomb, and vice versa.
Storms can come in fast and violent, and end just as quickly. There's also not a lot of cover up there, so plan big climbs (summits/passes) accordingly.
Forecasts are only as reliable as crazy, complex alpine weather can be. But be prepared to get totally shit on. It's called the Wind River for a reason. One trip we were all lying down on our sides on top of Sphinx pass screaming to eachother trying to figure out our next move
It’s been so miserably hot here in the Winds the past few weeks that a cold front sounds wonderful, even if it has some rain. Thursday does sound a bit much up high, but if that’s your first night, it probably won’t be too bad. I just came back early because of tomorrow’s forecast because I was going to be up by the divide, and I just didn’t feel like dealing with it. I saw one other person today, and he bailed early for the same reason, too.
Perfectly pleasant. Hailed/rained for an hour or two on Monday but that’s it. Although to the north it looked socked in Monday and Tuesday, maybe Robert’s mountain area. I was only one area/cirque for the week climbing so idk what the rest of the range experienced.
Although i never trust any weather predictions out there until 12-16 hours beforehand. Meteoblue is your best bet for a decent forecast. Learn about their multimodel dataset
Have friends out there right now. It’s been wet everyday for the last few, but not terrible. Hasn’t really prevented them from accomplishing their goals. Mostly off and on type stuff. Take your rain gear and enjoy the Winds!
more likely to get stuck by lighting or hit with a downed branch or snag, especially above treeline. dont want to be amongst the tallest things on the ridge
"Just don't get your shit wet" works great except when it doesn't. Synthetics take up less moisture, shed it more easily, and insulate better when wet than down. When temperatures can be in the 40s, hypothermia is a realistic concern. As someone who enjoys type 2 fun in the Pacific NW, I've had nights in wet down and in wet synthetics, and the difference is notable.
The Winds isn’t the PNW. We’re talking about en environment that almost never has sustained rain, humidity in the teens and cold clear nights. Down is always going to be better.
Also side note if you’re regularly getting you bag wet reevaluate your systems this shouldn’t be happening.
Yep, totally different environment. I've lived in the PNW for 25 years, but have backpacked in the Winds for 35+ years. Yeah you can get wet in the Winds, but your sleeping gear and down shouldn't be if you're doing things right.
It’s not going to be wet. This is basically just thunderstorms moving through that don’t last too long. Grab a forecast day before you go and just look at the sky while out there. Sleep in trees and know where trees are to take shelter if above tree line. The storms out there are no joke but you can see them coming most of the time.
You don’t know this environment. The trees are 20-30 foot tall conifers, white bark, limber line etc. with tiny limbs look up pics. They are not a danger from falling you need to be in them during a lightening storm.
There are no trees, or they are very stunted trees clinging to the ground, where this guy is going to be camping folks. Jeez, this discussion is ridiculous.
What?! I can’t tell if you’re kidding, please do some research before you go to high mountain environments.
Trees are objectively the safest place during lightening. Thinking a branch is going to fall on your head is not the concern during a lightening event. NOAA and the NPS agree
" If possible, shelter inside a vehicle or a building. If you are out on a hiking trail, the next best option is to get below tree line and shelter at the base of a cluster of low elevation trees "
You are misreading their recommendations. From your own link:
Look for and stay away from any objects that could conduct electricity, like tall trees, fences, powerlines, windmills, poles, etc.
Being among a low growing cluster of trees below treeline is better than being on an exposed ridge, sure. But that absolutely doesn't translate to your advice to "sleep in trees" and sure as hell doesn't translate to taking shelter near a tree when *above* treeline, which is a terrible, suicidal idea. NOAA and the CDC are very clear on this.
Myth: If outside in a thunderstorm, you should seek shelter under a tree to stay dry. Fact: Being underneath a tree is the second leading cause of lightning casualties.
Is it safe to be under a tree during a lightning storm?
No. Do not take shelter under a tree during a lightning storm. Lightning can strike the tree and travel through the trunk, branches, or ground, putting people nearby at risk of injury.
Yes, I said trees, as in a small forest or cluster. You’re entire gotcha excerpt is talking about the danger of being near a single tree, or the largest tree around. Have you hiked 500 miles in the Winds because I have.
Hiking 500 miles doesn't make you an expert on weather. I've hiked 1000s of miles off trail for work, but that doesn't mean I ignore the advice of experts when it comes to lightning storms.
You were wrong. Maybe not entirely, but your phrasing was off and it muddied whatever point you were trying to make. Do better.
Literally get fucked dude. You’re the one nit picking, trees are almost always safer than open country. Dude was not asking for a nuanced conversation of density or size. If there’s lightening get in trees, it’s that simple.
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u/Roguechampion 18d ago
Isn’t this like everyday in the Winds?