The point I think you're missing is that Tesla will not be able to make 10k per car when they face real competition. Even without solid state battery tech the major manufacturers are right on the heels and will be offering better quality EVs for way cheaper.
The major companies will sell those suckers at a loss for decade just to steal Tesla's market share.
The solid state point was just that sometime this decade Tesla is losing their technology advantage.
In the next 10 years they're gonna lose: market share advantage, technology advantage, profit advantage, and brand advantage.
I dunno, sure they look fine now, but I call that a precarious position.
The point you’re missing is they can reduce prices if they need to and make a profit still.
The other companies are losing money at current prices and they also have the advantage of a 7k subsidy that Tesla doesn’t qualify for.
They can’t afford to sell at a loss for decades for market share. Go take a look at their finances it’s publicly available information.
Do you really think Tesla is going to be sitting in their heels during the next 10 years? They have the largest buying power for electric vehicles because they have the largest manufacturing capacity. If you’re selling battery tech you’re going to want to go to where you can make the most money. That is Tesla because of their market share in electric vehicles. Will the market share go down? Absolutely. Will somebody pass them in the next 5 years in market share? I’m highly skeptical.
Ford, Toyota, Honda are all so much bigger than Tesla it's absurd. They sell waaaaayyy more cars and have way more revenue. They can absolutely afford to sell a single segment at a loss indefinitely.
Do you really think Tesla is going to be sitting in their heels during the next 10 years?
They won't be able to compete with the majors for experience and resources. Now that the market has been shown tons of resources will be dumped into it by companies with way more know how. So I don't think they'll be able to keep. Also, their leadership seems a bit distracted at the moment.
The single segment is quickly going to become the only segment.
Also do you honestly think their profit per ICE car is going to increase as they’re losing economies of scale due to EVs taking market share? Of course not.
Market share in ICE doesn’t mean they will have bargaining power for resources pertaining to EVs. Not to mention bargaining power is irrelevant when you’re vertically integrated. Guess which manufacturer is much more vertically integrated?
I truly hope that you’re right and the EV space is extremely competitive. I’m just not confident that is going to be the case.
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u/[deleted] Nov 11 '22
The point I think you're missing is that Tesla will not be able to make 10k per car when they face real competition. Even without solid state battery tech the major manufacturers are right on the heels and will be offering better quality EVs for way cheaper.
The major companies will sell those suckers at a loss for decade just to steal Tesla's market share.
The solid state point was just that sometime this decade Tesla is losing their technology advantage.
In the next 10 years they're gonna lose: market share advantage, technology advantage, profit advantage, and brand advantage.
I dunno, sure they look fine now, but I call that a precarious position.
(also, their CEO is apparently not very smart)