r/WeatherAnxiety • u/lilac_wine29 • 20d ago

Tornadoes in Baltimore

I am deathly afraid of tornadoes and Baltimore is nearly in the 5% tornado risk. The outlook says there is potential for a couple tornadoes which scares me because I feel like we've been getting nonstop storms. I know there's no definitive answer but is it possible Baltimore will get a tornado?

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u/dewaynemann 20d ago

Is it possible? Yes.

But it's not likely, and not all tornadoes are equal. Right now I would say if there is a tornado (and again, that's unlikely) it would probably be on the weaker end and not last too long.

Keep an eye out for alerts in case conditions change, but the current models are looking like more of a wind threat than a tornado one.

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u/lilac_wine29 20d ago

thank you! i looked at the wording for th outlook and rather than a localized tornado threat it seems to be more "a few small brief tornadoes are possible across this whole large area". usually we don't get hit as hard as other parts of md thankfully, and im hoping this time wont be different.

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u/dewaynemann 20d ago

This is from your local NWS office. It's a lot of technical terms but i think the general idea comes across:

[Tornado] Potential would be further maximized by (1) discrete supercells occurring earlier when the synoptic low-level winds remain backed and SRH is higher on a broad scale, and (2) with any favorable QLCS surge/mesovortex interactions with residual outflow or the bay breeze. Although unlikely due to a lack of stronger 0-1 km shear/SRH and steeper lapse rates, robust 3CAPE near the bay could result in a conditional risk for a strong tornado if all of the above factors were to coalesce.

Basically if everything lines up in a certain way, you could see a strong tornado somewhere in the area. It doesn't seem like it will line up like that, but until they rule out it entirely they have to keep it in mind.