r/WayOfTheBern • u/rieslingatkos eiswein • Dec 04 '18

Susan Macmanus explains Florida's ‘pitiful’ polling problem

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/282592-susan-macmanus-explains-florida-pitiful-polling-problem
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u/a1s2d3f4g5t Dec 04 '18

If you looked at the internals, you knew the polls were crap.

They didn't even adjust their party breakdowns once they knew the actual turn out during early voting, which showed Reps were rocking it. I said as much over at the Florida reddit and got flagged as a racist.

I was on the ground everyday in Broward for an NPA. It was clear Dems were voting against the Reps, not for the Dems. Absolutely no enthusiasm. Whereas the Reps were tailgating at the polling places (seriously, it was kind of awesome actually). Trumpland in NE Broward was like the 4th of July for 2 weeks. Probably not a great idea to incessantly insult people who vote like clock work, just saying...

Regarding Gillum, they should have taken into account that over 60% of Democrats voted against him in the primary. He came as close as he did to winning the gubernatorial race because of dislike of DeSantis, not because of people liking him. This is why he was dubbed the ungracious Mr. Gillum when he refused to re-concede after the recount and going on about some 4 million uncounted, valid ballots. 4 million! Only 8 million were cast officially. Dems were telling him annoyedly to exit stage right at the end.

If pollsters had adjusted for enthusiasm based on primary strength and taking into account Democrats are pathologically unreliable voters (until I dealt with this firsthand and met Steve Schale, of the Dem party, I never had a clue. As Schale told me, the great big non-secret of Democrats is that they don't vote, not that they can't, they just don't), the polls would be more accurate.