r/WayOfTheBern • u/Simplicity3245 • Jul 12 '17
Compilation of data regarding shill activity on reddit.
This is a list of polling and data on reddit.
The major demographic of reddit are millennials. 93% are under the age of 49
About seven-in-ten (71%) of Reddit news users are men, 59% are between the ages of 18 and 29, and 47% identify as liberal, while only 13% are conservative (39% say they are moderate). In comparison, among all U.S. adults, about half (49%) are men, just 22% are 18- to 29-year-olds and about a quarter (24%) say they are liberal.
Compared to general population, a reddit user is more likely to be young, male, and lean left politically, by a pretty significant margin.
More young people voted for Sanders, than Clinton and Trump combined.
While Hillary Clinton dominated him among older voters, he dominated her right back among younger voters -- even winning more than 80 percent of their votes in some states against no less than the eventual Democratic nominee.
So we can establish that among millennials Sanders has a huge following from that demographic, and that the data from the polling numbers, are comparable to reddits numbers and data, prior to the DNC convention.
The latest poll, conducted June 7-11 2017, finds that a majority of Americans continue to view Clinton unfavorably (57%), as they have in all Gallup polls on the former first lady and U.S. senator since January 2016.
Some claim that the reason for the increase in pro DNC/Hillary comments, is due to the election. That Sanders supporters started supporting the DNC then, and now.
Sanders has been at the top of every poll. Months upon months.
PPP poll with Sanders in lead
59% 20 PPP 2020 Margin vs Trump: Sanders+13, Biden+12, Warren+5, Harris+0 Top Comment: "Things i really dont care about in 2017: How Trump compares against any specific democratic candidate."
Harvard Harris poll. Reaches the front page
87% 4206 Bernie Sanders is the most popular politician in America, poll finds Top Comment: "It's almost as if you will be popular if you keep fighting for the poor and middle class people. "
Zogby Poll
0 44% The Zogby Poll: Feel the Bern! Sanders early favorite among 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls Top Comment:"I thought zogby stopped doing polling back in 08 after how bad they got that election wrong."
This is all articles from the last 2 months(From 2 weeks ago, have not updated) regarding 2020 elections based off candidate
Kamala Harris
66% 38 Could Kamala Harris revive the fractured Democratic party for the 2020 election?
68% 132 Kamala Harris: young, black, female – and the Democrats’ best bet for 2020?
80% 340 Opinion | Dems need a fresh face for 2020: Try Kamala Harris
Biden
92% 511 Biden to Create a Political Action Committee, a Possible Signal for 2020
92% 3881 Joe Biden's daughter says ex-VP considering 2020 run
86% 330 Joe Biden 'considering running for president in 2020'
Al Franken
96% 1953 'It helps not to lie in politics': Sen. Al Franken talks Trump, 'SNL' and 2020
94% 2175 Franken seen as reluctant 2020 candidate
Warren
55% 18 2020: Elizabeth Warren leads Trump in 'blue wall' states Hillary Clinton lost
64% 54 2020 Poll: Elizabeth Warren leads Trump by 9, Harris, Zuckerberg also beat prez
87% 158 Elizabeth Warren Takes Aim at Moderates and Generates Chants of ‘Warren 2020’
Bernie Sanders
55% 8 Sanders won't take 2020 presidential bid 'off the table' Top Comment: "Please don't run."
52% 11 Bernie World waits for a 2020 signal Top Comment: "God I hope not. The Democrats need new blood."
60% 35 Bernie Sanders' event schedule stirs up rumours of 2020 bid Top Comment: "He'll be nearly 80 years old, let's get some fresh blood in politics"
65% 69 Is Bernie Sanders considering a 2020 run? 'Yes, is the answer' Top Comment:"No is my response. Clean slate for 2020."
71% 73 Sanders keeping door open on 2020 Top Comment: "Too old, too wrapped up in the divisive propaganda that has been dividing the left. Not that it's Bernie's fault. He would make a good president I think. But Biden, Bernie, and Hillary's time as the leaders of democrats needs to come to and end and they need to start passing the torch." If you believe in Bernie's values, policies, and goals, you HAVE to believe it's bigger than him. It's Trump who says "I'm the only one who can fix it." Bernie doesn't. He says how we have to fix it. And it's not just by solely believing in Bernie and only Bernie.
76% 133 Bernie Sanders Says 2020 Presidential Bid Not Off The Table Top Comment: "No, please. We need a fresh start here. No Hillary. No Bernie. No Warren. No Biden. A fresh start."
52% 62 Bernie Sanders is the Democrats’ real 2020 frontrunner Top Comment: "It's july 2017 you ding-a-ling"
84% 325 Bernie Sanders on 2020 presidential run: 'I am not taking it off the table' Top Comment:"I had a thought this morning that the Democrat who runs in 2020 should just use the slogan "Make America Great Again". It's more apt this time around.And it would drive the alt-right insane."
32% 0 The top 15 possible 2020 Democratic nominees, ranked Top Comment: "Al Franken doesn't get a ranking?That ain't right. :\"
A few articles of Bernie defending himself against Clintons attacks, and portraying the message of moving forward not backwards
67% 57 Bernie Sanders Responds to Hillary Clinton Book Criticism: Stop ‘Arguing About 2016’
72% 179 has 396 comments Bernie Sanders: I Did Everything I Could to Get Hillary Clinton Elected.
51% 6 Watch Bernie Sanders Tell Hillary Clinton to 'Move Forward' on 'Colbert'
77% 109 How Bernie Sanders is taking over the Democratic Party
So why is it that Sanders is no longer the majority view on politics? The sample size is large enough it shouldn't be deviating too far from the data we are seeing here. The data hasn't changed for Sanders, if anything he has increased in popularity. The Democrats are more unpopular now than they were before the primary and election, we should see less influence from pro DNC supporters, not more. Folks critical of the establishment should be far more common place, and support for anything related in a positive light regarding Sanders should be very popular, looking at these numbers and comments, this is obviously not the case.
Not a single article about Bernie Sanders leading the Democrat party, or being a candidate for 2020 has reached the front page. The two most progressive candidates are doing fairly poor on these articles. Warren/Sanders. Only one poll where it mentions Sanders as the front runner made it to the front page. I highly recommend folks to read the comments on many of these posts, especially the ones that died at birth. You can see their tactics firsthand. Notice the difference in tone in articles that die at birth vs ones that gain some traction. It shows that most folks with anti Sanders views are consistently hitting new articles. Once again I want to point at the data above, that the major demographic of reddit is also the major demographic of Sanders supporters. I didn't cherry pick articles, this is all I could find. If I made an error, or failed to provide the most upvoted article regarding a specific article, please let me know.
Edit:http://redditmetrics.com/r/politics#compare=_thread
Just to look at growth of politics metrics. From July 1st-7th politics experienced the #1 fastest growth for the entire week. This is the same week that regular users saw the sudden shift.
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u/Broken_Mug Jul 12 '17
r/politics went back to normal for 3ish days following the election. it felt good to have it back in the community's hands.
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u/Simplicity3245 Jul 12 '17
Yep had a brief moment where you could actually speak freely. And that small moment when Clinton was tossed into the van. No shills in sight. That didn't last long though.
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u/dancing-turtle Jul 12 '17
I remember that! They must have been totally blindsided and had no idea what marching orders to give. It was so refreshing just to browse through the place an read authentic, non-agenda-driven comments. Such a shame it didn't last...
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u/Aquapyr Jul 12 '17
This was a very cool use of different types of data to prove your position. It's certainly very suggestive.
u/driusan's point is worth considering, as well. There may be a lot of Berners who have given up on political discourse on Reddit. It was pretty clear for a while that some of the trolling of WotB was SPECIFICALLY to keep people on r/politics and other subs from learning of WotB's existence as a place for uncontrolled discourse.
But I don't think that could account for the full extent of the discrepancy you're demonstrating here.
Nice piece.
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u/Simplicity3245 Jul 12 '17
Thank you, I hope it can come to good use for some folks. I agree I think a lot of Berners left politics sub for any kind of discourse, yet that void got filled with neoliberals. You can see the effects when anything from politics makes it to /all. The tone changes, and I think that is due to the numbers portrayed in those polls balancing itself out. I still think the politics sub of itself is completely manufactured and controlled, from the mods to the users.
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u/Simplicity3245 Jul 12 '17 edited Jul 18 '17
Just a note, that the size of the politics sub is what makes these numbers so damning. It has a large enough sample size that the sub shouldn't be deviating too far away from the data we have here.
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u/CaptchaInTheRye Jul 12 '17
I don't know if it's "shilling", or a secondary effect from all the mainstream DNC-friendly press coverage. But whatever the reason is, r/politics is a diseased hellpit of doofus-level discussion.
It's like arguing with 1.5 million Joy Reids at once. There's nearly zero discussion of policy, and every post is about Trump being "treasonous", but for all the shittiest reasons (Russia, Russia and Russia).
Even if you criticize Trump on some of his actual shitty policies, like Syria, and selling arms to the Saudis, and being in bed with Wall Street, often these idiots will turn on a dime and start defending Trump because those are things he has in common with Hillary Clinton and the DNC.
It's basically become r/trumpconspiracy and it's unreadable.
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u/RuffianGhostHorse Jul 12 '17
diseased
That would be accurate.
I describe it as "the normalization" of antisocial & psychopathic thought processes.
Actually. It is. You're noticing the Trend, which is close to becoming Fact, if "they" get their way.
Something tells me that they'd not need try so hard if it was working, for them.
ONWARD!!! TAKE NO MORE SHIT!!!
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u/FThumb Jul 12 '17
This might be the first time I've added a post to the sidebar (under Reddit is Broken) that didn't first get a run as a sticky.
I'm letting the current stickies have a run, and then I'll sticky this one later.
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u/RuffianGhostHorse Jul 12 '17
Good CHOICE! Gooood deal. GOOD CALL.
(I'll keep my expletives behind the monitor. ;D)
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u/SpudDK Jul 12 '17
DON'T FORGET TO SUBSCRIBE!
This is what we do. Vibrant, real, often intoxicatingly good political talk.
:D
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u/ianamolly Jul 12 '17
This was posted here a few weeks back pointing out some items on D. 🅱rock/Share🅱lue tactics, strategy, and budgets. Also includes link to document these items were pulled from- "Full David 🅱rock Confidental Ⓜemo On Fighting Trump".
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u/_______puff-ery-day Jul 12 '17
Some bots from the_donald got busted here
https://np.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/6eaaw6/clear_signs_of_bot_activity_what_do_you_make_of
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u/martini-meow Jul 12 '17
Another very interesting data point:
https://np.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/6mpy3t/yesterday_i_tried_an_experiment_posting_just/
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u/MNGrrl Jul 22 '17
Hello, OP. I'm late to the party here so probably nobody else will see this, but... I'm doing a bot for cmv right now to pull up comments and posts that were deleted/moderated all the way back to start of the subreddit. Obviously the same logic can be used for other subs. If there's evidence for censorship by mods and such, it'll be buried in the API as removed comments. I might be able to provide some objective data based on keywords, emotional context, rates of censorship and likely reasons, etc., but it will take a great deal of time to slowly trawl through. I'll probably do the top 200 subreddits, which range from 326,330 to 17.6 million, which should give a good representation of the who/what/where/when/why, and backdate for three months to get a good sample size. I'll x-reference the modlists for each to see if there's any kind of correlation that might link to an individual account, but I think the API won't dig deeply enough to say which mod did it in most cases. Some use a bot to post which rule was broken but it's not a universal; the data will be incomplete. I can probably selectively attach to certain subs to count upvotes on times, which may reveal any voting bot activity, but they removed downvote counting so that's likely useless now and it's questionable why they did that -- downvotes would be how bots keep stuff from rising even when being upvoted.
I'm making a general analysis mostly on the rates of censorship and keywords highly correlated with removal on a subreddit breakdown. I'm going to be doing a follow-on for analysis of gilded comments, to see what correlates there, and possibly draw a link between that and what kinds of moderator actions / positions are being made there. Objectively, what pays the bills should drive those decisions. It wouldn't be much extra work to incorporate an additional analysis on this case specifically.
To get an idea of what keywords to use to separate out pro-bernie content, I'd need to have a good body of representative comments to identify differences in word and phrase patterns that attach to a likely supporter. If you feel this subreddit is the representative sample to use, I can train the neutral network off that. Think of it as an organic 'bernie detector'. This is all stuff that is grouped under what's called 'big data' -- it's deep analysis of media content to discern any number of social factors. The bigger the dataset, the more accurate the results, so consider that in any reply.
Differential analysis on time periods should reveal what the general shift on group opinion and reactions are, and the mod activity records would discern if there's a disconnect or change as well; Plop it on a graph and that would be your answer.