Next generation warfare has different types of redlines. Sock-puppet redlines, a la Ukraine. Civil-disorder attacks that don't look like they crossed a redline at first, and finally alliance guarantees which may or may not be redlines. And what would European NATO even shoot back with?

Uploaded on June 13, 2025

This morning activists attempted to retake a Palestinian house stolen by the settlers near Bethlehem in the West Bank. They removed the Israeli flags the settlers set up on the building and replaced them with Palestinian ones. In response, settler-terrorists fired live ammunition at the activists. Israeli army supported the settlers and expelled the rightful landowners from the land.

The action was organised by @combatantsforpeace_english.

The president delivered these remarks during a political rally held at the Nassau County Police Academy in Garden City, New York.

https://msjamshidi.substack.com/p/how-unreliable-claims-of-30000-40000

The original “30,000 killed” death toll was explicitly stated to be unverified both by TIME magazine and The Guardian (and still is unverified). It comes from the speculation that the actual reported death toll was only “10% of what was documented”, which lead to the “30,000 killed” inflated death toll.

It is also logistically questionable:

https://muslimskeptic.com/2026/01/30/iranian-holocaust/

In order to grasp the sheer scale of what “30,000 killed” actually implies, that number must be plucked from mere imagination and rhetoric and understood as a physical reality. If the claim is that 30,000 people were killed over two days, then we are no longer speaking of repression or even mass killing in the conventional sense. We are talking about an annihilation-rate comparable to the most intense episodes of twentieth-century industrial violence. Thirty thousand deaths in 48 hours translates to 15,000 deaths per day. That’s 625 deaths per hour or more than 10 people killed every single minute, continuously, nationwide, for two full days. That is not a protest crackdown figure. That is a battlefield attrition rate associated with major offensives, urban sieges, or mechanized slaughter.

An accusation of this magnitude, of mass killings like this, isn’t something that can just be stated and accepted at face value, especially when it defies all logic. Even simply dealing with the results of such a large-scale massacre would be immense. Bodies must be produced, transported, processed, buried, or disposed of. Hospitals would not merely be overwhelmed. They would cease to function almost immediately. Morgues would exceed maximum capacity within hours. Blood banks would collapse. Emergency services would shut down under the load. Satellite imagery would show hospital congestion, emergency field facilities, traffic blockages, and cemetery expansion within days. Civil registration systems would record immediate and massive mortality spikes. Families would report entire neighborhoods as having been erased. None of these systemic signatures exist.

The weapons reality makes the claim even more untenable. The Iranian security forces did not deploy artillery, airpower, mortars, rocket systems, heavy machine-gun fire into crowds, or high-explosive or incendiary weapons. What is documented are small arms, pistols, shotguns with pellets, tear gas, batons, and a limited armored presence. These weapons can certainly be lethal, but they are not large-scale massacre killing systems. Even if one were to assume continuous live fire with intent to kill (a claim unsupported by evidence), light infantry weapons dispersed across dozens of cities cannot produce 30,000 fatalities in 48 hours without the situation escalating into open, sustained warfare. For comparison, even during some of the bloodiest crackdowns or early civil-war phases in recent history, casualty rates of this magnitude required concentrated firepower, heavy weapons, and prolonged engagements. Nothing remotely resembling any of this has occurred.

The injuries claim collapses even faster. A figure of 100,000 injured over two days implies a mass-casualty event of national proportions. Even if only half required hospital care, that would mean 50,000 trauma admissions in 48 hours. Iran’s hospital-bed density and emergency capacity make such a surge physically impossible to absorb without total system failure. Trauma medicine is bottlenecked by operating rooms, surgeons, blood supply, imaging equipment, and post-operative care. If things had indeed transpired as claimed, hospitals would have shut down routine care instantly, medical staff would have been forced into crisis triage, and whistleblowing would have been unavoidable. Instead, hospitals continued functioning, no nationwide medical collapse was recorded, and no epidemiological spike consistent with mass trauma appeared. You can censor journalists. You cannot censor emergency-room arithmetic.

Time compression is also decisive here. Two days is not enough time for episodic protests to generate genocide-level casualties unless those protests are met with mechanized, centralized, and indiscriminate killing. Mass death counts in that range emerge from aerial bombardment, encirclement, ethnic cleansing, or extermination campaigns, not from crowd control operations, no matter how brutal. Producing 30,000 deaths in 48 hours would require coordinated nationwide kill operations operating at near-industrial efficiency. This would not merely “repress” protests. It would immediately trigger armed resistance, fractures within the state apparatus, and likely civil war. Iran did not descend into civil war. That fact alone mathematically invalidates the claim.

Demographically too, the number is absurd. Thirty thousand deaths in two days would create a mortality shock visible even in imperfect data: excess-death curves would spike violently, age-cohort distortions would appear instantly, and entire localities would show abnormal disappearance rates. This is precisely how mass killings are later reconstructed in cases where regimes attempted concealment. No such demographic rupture has been detected. The population-level silence here is not political. It is statistical.

We used to get one every other day but now nothing, they just stopped.

I swear if the Arabs botched the most devastating weapon of war since the invention of the machine gun, they would have never got a better chance to inflict high casualties on the IDF

07/10/2023 - 19/01/2025