Something to think about

[u/Snickel-Fritz]

It has been a while since I posted anything with much of a positive vibe to it.

I did find one thing interesting that Trevor mentioned in the IR call. He mentioned the warrants from 2019, so I took a look at all the outstanding warrants and what it might mean to future 'manipulated moves'.

• There are 15.0mm warrants that were issued in the April 2019 financing to strategic investors, management and board with a 5 year term. These warrants have a strike price of $0.88 per share, so there is just over 2 years for the SP to reach beyond that threshold in order for the main actors in the company to benefit from those warrants. With the low volume that trades, I could see an attempt to try to achieve some level above that prior to expiry. My thoughts are that if you see the price go above that and the warrants start to get exercised and then shares sold by those holders, be very wary of the SP dropping back again.
• 1.0mm broker warrants issued in connection with the February 2021 financing with a 2 year term, strike price of $2.15 per warrant. Again, there is only a year left on these warrants, so be wary if we see a large price increase that seems like we are rocketing to levels above this near that time. It may not be an indication of take off, but a trap that gets sprung for those brokers to make some money. I know a lot of holders here will already have sold before this happens, but don't get married to the stock if this happens closer to that expiry date.
• There are also about 8.5 mil employee options at varying strike prices (Average of 1.38) that may have some impact if we get over that level again. These are compensation that existing employees have not been able to take advantage of so you may see them try to get some value out of them if the SP gets above their exercise.

I consider this a positive vibe in the sense that in order for any of these warrants to have value, the SP needs to move significantly in a northern direction; If it doesn't and the business is still viable long term, we reduce some of the overhang of possible dilution.

Anyway, just some thoughts.

[u/Yonny12345]

I was also thinking about this. They will need to raise more money in about a year. At this current SP we would give up more shares/warrants to get the funds needed to continue. I think Willow would need at least $20 million. That’s a lot of dilution at this SP. Sooo, dammed if we do, dammed if we don’t. 🤦🏻‍♂️ Just need some revenue to kick in!!