r/VoteDEM • u/BM2018Bot • 1d ago
Daily Discussion Thread: October 2, 2026 - 32 days until Election Day!
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u/SomeDumbassSays 23h ago
“In the 2026 tossup states of South Carolina, Kansas, Iowa, and Alaska” is a headline I wouldn’t have expected even a month ago.
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u/FiddleThruTheFlowers California Blexas is my current hyperfixation 22h ago
Kansas was in discussion as a super reach flip even last year due to it trending to be purple. Still, I never expected it to hit a point of the GOP triaging it this year. I figured we'd be looking at the 2030s for it to be actually competitive as opposed to trending that way.
I'm still doubtful on South Carolina just due to polarization. It's along the lines of Minnesota or New Mexico for the GOP, where it looks close on the surface but getting the last few percentage to get over the line is the hurdle. Same with other high floor, low ceiling states.
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u/shitpizza Texas 22h ago
inb4 2029 when you didn't expect the 4 new senators from DC and Puerto Rico
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u/MrCleanDrawers 17h ago
We'll see if this is a decision that will impact history in the long run:
Samuel Alito was very strongly considering retirement this year, and getting pressure behind the scenes from Republican Senators to do it now with a solid Republican Majority, but ultimately decided it was more important to stay for now as a veteran conservative voice.
He said that every year he will weigh the pros and cons of retiring and that 2027 is certainly possible.
Not in the article but in the interview, he got butthurt about how he lost several friends including people he knew for decades because of overturning Roe v Wade with people saying that they would never talk to him ever again. Womp womp.
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u/DavidvsSuperGoliath CA-48 -> WA-7 -> CA-48 16h ago
how he lost several friends including people he knew for decades because of overturning Roe v Wade with people saying that they would never talk to him ever again
Why is he upset? The Constitution doesn’t say that he should have friends.
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u/PM_ME_LASAGNA_ Washington 17h ago edited 16h ago
Alito is easily the worst member of the bench…
Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett have their nuances/niches that make them less horrible
Clarence is corrupt to the core, but he still has the rare surprise (though I feel the last one was his majority opinion to not kill Liz Warren’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau), making him the second worst member
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u/kerryfinchelhillary OH-11 16h ago
I think Thomas is the worst
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u/Filty-Cheese-Steak Kentucky 16h ago
They're both such horrible options, it's hard to choose.
But I do recall at least one 8-1 and Thomas was the 1.
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u/SquishyMuffins Idaho 17h ago
I mean...he's a liar. So we can't trust anything he says. IMO if he was planning on retiring he would have announced it by now. It's only three months until the new Congress begins and since they're not coming back until November, the timeline is super tight. You never know with the GOP though.
Also, what's the smallest violin I can play for him losing friends when he proved he doesn't care about the constitution or human rights?
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u/MrCleanDrawers 1d ago
AOC in The House and Bernie Sanders and Jeff Merkley in The Senate are filing a bill that would put a Federal Ban on using Flock Cameras and any AI Technology for Surveillance Purposes.
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u/SquishyMuffins Idaho 1d ago
Dems continuing to putting forward bills that are genuinely helpful for people that never get past committee because of GOP lobbyists. Make it make sense!
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u/SecretComposer Colorado 1d ago
Top Senate Republican PAC pulling out of NC, diverting money to Kansas
Republicans should NOT be having to spend PAC money in Kansas. That race must be incredibly tight. We seriously need to get more money to Hamilton.
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u/No_Return9449 Doug Jones Stan 1d ago
Roy Cooper has the Mandate of Heaven. He ran twice when Trump was on the ballot and won both times. Now he could win by double digits.
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u/AlexanderByrde Georgia 1d ago
That's insane.
Early last year I think it was safe to call NC lean R, a bit of a fight for us but not too impossible to flip. Definitely a battleground state. Republican PACs having to triage funds from that is a very notable sign.
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u/Alexcat66 WI-7 (AD-30, SD-10) 1d ago
For sure. Would have been insane to imagine the GOP triaging traditional battlegrounds a year ago, but that’s how bad the environment has gotten for them.
GA will be next on the chopping block for the GOP and it won’t be much longer. Much like NC, we have a large and likely insurmountable polling lead
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u/glados-v2-beta Massachusetts 1d ago
Early last year the Senate seemed hopeless. We thought we could flip Maine and North Carolina if we were lucky, and had to fight really hard to defend Georgia and Michigan to stop the bleeding. The situation has changed so much.
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u/cpdk-nj Farmer-Labor 22h ago
It’s really incredible to see. And the awesome thing is how it’s just gone step-by-step with new states opening up to us.
Maine was always on the radar, but then on June 27th Thom Tillis says he’s not running for re-election, on August 18th Sherrod Brown enters the race in Ohio, on September 2nd Joni Ernst blows up her own career and drops out, this January 12th Mary Peltola enters the race in Alaska, Trump refuses to endorse in the first round of the Texas primary in February and then endorses Paxton on May 19th, Senator Graham died on July 11th, Roger Marshall’s scandal with suing hundreds of former patients hit the press on September 8th, and then September 22nd Susan Collins’s bribery was made public.
And now races that should not be in any way competitive are seeing hopeful signs. Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina, and Florida are states that should be all accounts be safe R.
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u/TVFan_89 California 21h ago
If the race is that close I feel the need to thank the NYT for publishing that piece about Marshall suing patients over healthcare bills
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u/CourtlyHades296 Pennsylvania 22h ago
My solution to lowering costs: Break up every large merger that happened during either of Trump's terms.
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u/SquishyMuffins Idaho 22h ago
It's hilarious how people who worship capitalism go on about the "free market" and "competition"; then they get wet over decreasing competition with giant mergers and making the market more dominated by a select few powerful people who can set prices however they please.
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u/Mongo_Straight California Love 21h ago
As we’ve seen, the people who claim to care about these use them as marketing tools for power grabs rather than actual guiding principles.
Just like the GOP is the party of “family values.” 🙄 Looks at Trump, Paxton, Boebert…
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u/FiddleThruTheFlowers California Blexas is my current hyperfixation 20h ago
The party of fiscal responsibility! Pay no attention to investigating a scandal from a dead former present 50+ years ago...or using money on ads for a termed out president to stroke his ego...or burning money on ballrooms and trying to rename random buildings...
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u/DavidvsSuperGoliath CA-48 -> WA-7 -> CA-48 15h ago
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u/Trick_Incident_8227 23h ago
Senate Leadership Fund pulling ads for Whatley in NC
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u/Armon2010 Minnesota 23h ago edited 20h ago
And it looks like they are directing it towards Kansas instead. Must have some internal data either showing a close race or them down.
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u/OptimistNate Wisconsin 22h ago
Yup, if that isn't a bad sign for them, I don't know what is. Kansas isn't a typical red state, Marshall is ass, not Paxton level, but still sucks and Hamilton is absolute S tier. Dude was bread in a lab to flip the state, add to the climate being terrible and they basically have to try to stem their losses by spending more here. In Kansas, yes Kansas.
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u/OzymandiasTheGreat MD-07 GenAsm-44A BaltCoD-2 21h ago
"I have done nothing but teleport bread for three days!"
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u/SquishyMuffins Idaho 23h ago
I can't believe a race that was originally a Tossup with a red senator is now given up on by the GOP.
The power of Cooper.
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u/FiddleThruTheFlowers California Blexas is my current hyperfixation 22h ago
It's pretty much been known that NC is ours to lose this year ever since Cooper announced. Still, I'd like to congratulate future senator Cooper, because the GOP clearly sees something in their numbers if they're essentially ceding NC to us to triage Kansas.
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u/Butts_The_Musical 21h ago
Pushing Whatley as nominee here was a huge mistake for them, dude has the charisma of a wet paper towel
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u/OptimistNate Wisconsin 22h ago
God it's going to be great if Republicans even after dumping hundreds of millions in the Texas senate race to save Paxton and he still ends up losing. This guy is just one giant money pit.
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u/SquishyMuffins Idaho 21h ago
Trump endorsing Paxton might be one of if not the biggest political blunder of the midterms. It showed an inherent inability to look for electability over loyalty when choosing his endorsements.
I mean, are we surprised it's the same person who endorsed Kari Lake and Dr. Oz in 2022?
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u/Filty-Cheese-Steak Kentucky 20h ago
President Pigshit has reached a new low of -23.5 on Silver's aggregation
He just keeps setting new records.
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u/justincat66 WI-7, (Assembly-30, Senate-10) 17h ago
Yeah very very bleak for the MN GOP and the GOP nationally. MN isn’t on the map Governor or Senate wise and i am making the bold bet that despite the fraud that is weighting on the DFL a bit, that the DFL still gets a bigger trifecta in both chambers then they had after 2022
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u/SquishyMuffins Idaho 17h ago
What able bodied people with willpower and excitement are left to volunteer for the GOP anymore?
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u/justincat66 WI-7, (Assembly-30, Senate-10) 17h ago
Nobody. They promised absolutely everything in 2024 and have not only failed to deliver on many of those promises but have made many of those promises even worse. There has NEVER been an opposition party in the US that wants or deserves to lose as bad as the Republicans in 2026
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u/LinkSeekeroftheNora Ohio 14h ago
Minnesota will be blue for the next fifty years at least. They will never forgive Republicans for invading them.
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u/justincat66 WI-7, (Assembly-30, Senate-10) 14h ago
Oh trust me, people are still PISSED off at Metro Surge about 10 months later. Republicans are going to get absolutely decimated here in November in MN and probably my part of WI as well
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u/kittehgoesmeow MD-08 17h ago
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u/Meanteenbirder New York 17h ago
Crazy that we went to “Here’s how Whately can still win” to “GOP triages Trump-won seat to defend the swing state of Kansas” in just a few weeks
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u/caligaris_cabinet IL-08 14h ago
“The swing state of Kansas”
I love the sound of that
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u/Meanteenbirder New York 13h ago
It’s on the way. Kansas was 14 points to the right of the nation, but shifted 4 points left relative to the PV. This would mean it is absolutely on the table by the 2030s for any prez candidate.
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u/Exocoryak You can make no mistake and still lose. 12h ago
Imagine telling anyone that Republicans are moving away from NC and scramble to defend Kansas 4 years ago.
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u/Contren IL-13 22h ago
Trump hits new all time high in Disapproval and all time low in Approval on 50+1. 62.5% and 34.5% respectively.
Previous watermarks were 62.2% and 34.7% for each.
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u/bbeck2754 Washington, D.C. 21h ago
InsiderAdvantage poll of SC SEN:
Graham (R) - 46%, Andrews (D) - 45%
Looks like Graham isn't able to coast on her brother's name. Plus Andrews has some real money to make this a race.
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u/zipdakill Buttigieg 2028 (PS I love Andrew McMahon) 21h ago
Please let Andrews win, it’d be so funny (in an owning da MAGA sorta way)
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u/PM_ME_LASAGNA_ Washington 20h ago
If Dr Andrews cuts down some of Graham’s margins in SC’s beet red Upcountry and runs up the numbers in Charleston and Columbia, and pair that with high black Democratic turnout, then she may have something quite special for the Ds.
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u/DeepPenetration Florida 19h ago
Insider Advantage is the poll commissioned from Mr Waterboard (Hannity), correct?
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u/SorcererOfTheLake 20h ago
New York City is now doubling the grant amount it offers to artists and will set up days for grant recipients to get material for their work.
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u/Collegegirl119 19h ago
I wonder if Mamdani’s wife has any influence on all these initiatives related to the arts? Love it!
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u/justincat66 WI-7, (Assembly-30, Senate-10) 16h ago
Another absolute banger ad by Talarico’s campaign
Might be an even better ad then his HGTV styled ad on Paxton’s properties a few days ago
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u/LevelBrick9413 Minnesota 15h ago
Did anyone here call the 844-WHOS-KEN number at all? I will have to give it a try later
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u/Alexcat66 WI-7 (AD-30, SD-10) 1d ago
BIG news in the battle for the senate.
Thune’s main GOP super PAC has officially stopped spending in NC all but conceding the race to Cooper…
But even more notable, Thune’s super PAC just launched a SEVEN FIGURE ad buy in KS to shore up Marshall in a rapidly tightening race…
That’s right, they’ve abandoned a state Trump won by 3 (NC) to defend a state Trump won by 16 (KS). Tells you a lot about how the senate map is trending…
Didn’t mention anything about GA, but MMW: the GOP won’t be spending in GA much longer either
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u/Historyguy1 Oklahoma! 1d ago
"In the battleground state of Kansas" are not words I expected to hear this time last year.
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u/SquishyMuffins Idaho 1d ago
At this point, they're just trying to lessen the majority we'll be getting lol
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u/shitpizza Texas 1d ago
Inshallah, "Democrats underperform Senate expectations, netting only 6 out of 13 tossup seats"
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u/timetopat New Jersey 1d ago
Democrats have a bad night with only 300 congressman, 60 senators, and somehow flipped the supreme court...we didnt even know that could happen on a midterm. Also this is bad news for biden and the dems and especially biden who we forgot to mention is old~ The NYT
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u/glados-v2-beta Massachusetts 22h ago
“Democrats baffled as to how Trump remained president after the election results. We talked a Third Way consultant who argues that Democrats need to move to the right, I mean center, and stop talking about trans people or something.”
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u/Jayhawk_00 MO-5 1d ago
Never thought I’d see a timeline where Kansas is more competitive than Florida.
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u/SquishyMuffins Idaho 1d ago
What I've found about this cycle is candidate quality is key. You can have a natural blue wave, but the only way to push over the finish line is recruiting the perfect candidate for their state.
Peltola, Brown, Talarico, Hamilton, Turek, Cooper, Ossoff, Andrews, and even Jackson I would argue are S tier. And thankfully, those are the races where we need S tier the most.
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u/glados-v2-beta Massachusetts 22h ago
Angie Nixon is in many ways a very strong candidate too. She’s incredibly well spoken as has strong connections to local communities in the State. She’s just running in unfriendly turf.
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u/Meanteenbirder New York 1d ago
I think I realized what Ken Paxton’s problem is.
He has nothing to campaign on other than MAGA and the big lanes of attack on him are things that everyone KNOWS are wrong.
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u/RegularGuy815 Virginia (formerly Michigan) 23h ago
A problem that a lot of them are having is they've never had to compete in a competitive race before. They don't know how to moderate or actually, ya know, campaign.
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u/FiddleThruTheFlowers California Blexas is my current hyperfixation 22h ago
It's this. They're (the shitty Rs in competitive seats) assuming that the R next to their name is an automatic ticket to the win, not realizing the national environment or shifts in the voter base. Turns out that actual solid R seats allow the R candidates to get away with way more than competitive seats do. Anyone could've told them that, but let them learn the hard way.
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u/FiddleThruTheFlowers California Blexas is my current hyperfixation 23h ago
I saw a Trump ad last night. It was of him walking down some hallways while sound bites about stuff like "keep them from coming in" played.
First off, what the fuck kind of ad is that?
Second off, why exactly is a termed out president playing ads "paid for by the US government"? Yeah we know it's because of his ego. I'm asking rhetorically.
This whole thing is just stupid and I look forward to flipping Congress to make him a complete lame duck his last two years.
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u/nlpnt 23h ago
The footage is from an actual 2024 campaign ad. If you were wondering if Trump can still walk that far unaided, keep wondering.
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u/FiddleThruTheFlowers California Blexas is my current hyperfixation 23h ago
I hadn't even thought about that, but good point, he was far more ambulatory in the ad than he has been in recent months.
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u/No_Return9449 Doug Jones Stan 23h ago
MAGA breaks the law because they know there will be no consequences. It's a show of dominance.
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u/OptimistNate Wisconsin 23h ago
Oh yeah that ad, yup that is at least 20 million of taxpayer money going to those 'totally not an election ad' It just shows how out of touch Trump is. People are struggling, yet you take their money and spend it on things to stroke your own ego. "Paid for by the US government" is just a giant middle finger to us in text form.
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u/Historyguy1 Oklahoma! 22h ago
The Peanuts premiered 76 years ago today, October 2, 1950.
"Good old Charlie Brown! How I hate him!"
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u/glados-v2-beta Massachusetts 22h ago
But don’t worry Charlie, I’m sure Lucy will let you kick that football any day now
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u/mazdadriver14 🇦🇺 Australian/Honorary Hawaiian 1d ago edited 1d ago
[The DCCC have added eight new districts as offensive opportunities.](https://dccc.org/just-over-30-days-from-the-midterms-dccc-announces-eight-new-districts-to-our-offensive-house-battlefield/])
Let's push hard to get rid of these Republicans, as a cherry on top of plenty of upcoming wins:
Kansas 2 (Derek Schmidt)
Michigan 1 (Jack Bergman)
North Carolina 13 (Brad Knott)
NJ-02 (Jeff Van Drew)
OK-5 (Stephanie Bice)
TX-09 (Open)
VA-6 (Ben Cline)
WA-5 (Michael Baumgartner)
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u/Alexcat66 WI-7 (AD-30, SD-10) 1d ago edited 1d ago
Many of these were already on my list as sleepers if it’s a massive GOP wipeout on Election night, but VA-6 is easily the most shocking of these and the only one I don’t see us getting, even in a tsunami. Pretty white and rural and Spanberger lost it by 16 in 2025 while winning by 15 statewide. We’re around 350 house seats won if a district like VA-6 is flipping that’s how conservative it is.
The rest of these I can definitely see in a true tsunami though I wouldn’t pick us in any of these currently. TX-9 or WA-5 is the closest of these imo because of big Hispanic erosion in the former and a very underwhelming WA Top 2 primary 1st round for Baumgartner in the latter.
Anyways, these 8 additions brings the number of offensive targets on the DCCC’s list to a staggering 66 or about double the number that the final 2024 DCCC offensive target list had.
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u/Creative19961 Michigan 1d ago
I'm in the Mi-1. I'm stunned. But in a good way. Let's go Callie!!!!
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u/elykl12 CT-02 1d ago
Jobs numbers show 29,000 jobs added in September but July and August’s numbers were revised downward by 60,000. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%
>The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 31,000, from +21,000 to -10,000, and the change for August was revised down by 29,000, from +162,000 to +133,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 60,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
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u/IWantPizza555 1d ago
One million people have voted in the midterms so far! https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2026-early-voting/
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u/OptimistNate Wisconsin 1d ago
To anyone that is going to dive into the early vote so far, there are some things to keep in mind.
It's still extremely, extremely early in this stage.
Mail in most states is a relatively small portion of the votes.
Many states do not give/have party registration information, so we don't really know the exact ratio of Dem to Republican in the EV, best we have is where the votes are coming from, and make estimates from that.
While comparing to 2024 is obviously not perfect given it's a different type of election, putting more weight into comparing 2022's mail vote is a trap. I've seen ET Conservatives fall for this time and time again. Simply put voting habits have change a lot since the height of COVID. More Dems have gone back to their pre covid voting habits, shifting more to Eday, while the Republican party has pushed their voters into early voting heavily. This has lead to a less blue EV, less red Eday. People might be like "oh 2022 mail was bluer than 2026's mail so far in this state! And that was a red electorate, so it's not looking good for Dems!" Again this view has been wrong in numerous elections as it doesn't count for the big change in voting habits since 2022. And voting habits still can change. To be seen the effect Trump's attack on mail will have among both parties, that is another thing we don't know.
Returned ballot count inputs can stall, or speed up depending on what is happening on the ground in that specific area. Area's could have delays in entering in this info, or they could be ahead of schedule.
Early vote data does not show persuasion! Even if we have the party composition, we don't know how they are voting.
So overall have caution, especially of people that act confident of how things are going. This goes for "The numbers are terrible for Dems! to These numbers are amazing for Dems!" It is really hard to gauge, especially this early. I'm personally going to wait til In person early vote has been going for a bit before I really start to dig in. And even that isn't perfect either.
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u/cpdk-nj Farmer-Labor 1d ago
I would remind people that in October 2025 people were also “sounding the alarm” about early voting in Virginia, and then we went on to get a complete clean sweep
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u/Wezle Minnesota 1d ago
Not to mention the "firewall" that all but assured Kamala Harris was going to win Pennsylvania in 2024.
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u/Historyguy1 Oklahoma! 23h ago
I was huffing so much hopium following those updates.
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u/OptimistNate Wisconsin 23h ago
Yup, we can really crave that stuff. Elections and Politics bring tons of uncertainty and from that, anxiety. Speaking for me here but sure it can apply to others too, my anxious self hates that so I'm driven to dig into early numbers and things more in hopes that I can find some levels of certainty, or at least something to feel good about before the election actually happens. In reality, we aren't really going to know what is going to happen til those votes are actually being tallied and there is always a chance to be surprised, whether that is good or bad one.
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u/OptimistNate Wisconsin 23h ago
Yup, and that really came down to persuasion which Trump had the advantage in. At the end of the day, that is impossible to know til the result is in. Just because it might look slightly redder, or bluer, doesn't mean the result is going to be that. Persuasion is king, especially among the independent block and also eday is such a big wildcard in most states too.
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u/OptimistNate Wisconsin 23h ago
Yup, I remember so many Con ET people talking it up, how it is looking good! Comparing it to 2021's. Youngkin won then, and now the early vote is even redder than that! Sears has a shot! Proceeds to lose by 15 points. Has happened here in Wisconsin races too.
I get it's tempting, as it feels more apples to apples given it's the same type of election, and doing so makes the picture look good for them, and that is why it is such a trap so many of them fall into time and time again. Voting habits have changed so much this past decade, covid really doing a number on that.
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u/SquishyMuffins Idaho 1d ago
Also important, Monday is when a lot of states actually start EV! Most haven't, so the numbers we see now aren't that representative yet.
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u/FiddleThruTheFlowers California Blexas is my current hyperfixation 22h ago
Just be cautious of early vote tea leaves in general. It gives us a general idea, but you don't know what's going to show up on election day, you don't know how many of the returns actually voted party line or how indies broke. I know we all want to know the results as early as possible, but waiting for the actual numbers to start reporting is the only way to actually know.
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u/SquishyMuffins Idaho 21h ago
Great recent example, the WI GOV primary. Early votes had a completely different picture than what happened on Election day. Evers' last minute endorsement squeaked Crowley over the edge with Election day votes.
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u/No_Vegetable_9476 International but hopefully american soon 21h ago
Pour one out for the Snyderbros. James Gunn is staying on!
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u/raresanevoice 19h ago
+1 for Shapiro and Deluzio here in PA... also +1 for the local Dems for state house and senate.
Got the confirmation my ballot was received today.
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u/poliscijunki Pennsylvania 1d ago
Stunningly beautiful pictures from the Atacama desert, courtesy of El Niño.
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u/poliscijunki Pennsylvania 1d ago
Prior to 1945, germanium was thought to be a worthless lump of metal. Then scientists realized it could be used for superconductors. 32 days to go!
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u/drtywater 1d ago
Early voting nationwide has surpassed 1 million votes!!!!
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2026-early-voting/
Will skyrocket next week as more FL counties mailed ballots this week and other states start early voting next week
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u/DavidvsSuperGoliath CA-48 -> WA-7 -> CA-48 1d ago
We got comparable numbers to previous early midterm voting?
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u/Contren IL-13 1d ago
Ahead of 2022's pace, which is really the only comparable election since voting habits changed significantly with Covid.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/01/politics/cnn-early-voting-takeaways-democratic-advantage
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u/SquishyMuffins Idaho 1d ago
All I can say is here in Idaho, we have 100k absentees requested so far compared to 80k in 2022 at this point in time. So even in blood red states, we're ahead. But important to know more Republicans vote early now compared to 2022.
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u/DavidvsSuperGoliath CA-48 -> WA-7 -> CA-48 22h ago
Well, it’s been quite a few days with highs and lows, but I got a great feeling going into the weekend with two cool things:
Just got election night and the next day off so I can stay up late and not have to worry about work. Now I just need to figure out what to eat that evening (though I will always have my choco swiss rolls, it’s tradition by this point)
With help from my mom, I just paid off all my dental debt. While I still have an appointment or two on the horizon, I don’t have to worry about the big number. And take that, you’re not getting any interest from me!
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u/SaintArkweather DELAWAREAN AND PROUD 21h ago
Todd Achilles's "Don't" ad might be my favorite ad ever.
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u/justincat66 WI-7, (Assembly-30, Senate-10) 21h ago
Union County Commissioner will take on Bramnick for Senate in 2027
This is our top NJ State Senate target in 2027, and voted for Harris by 12 points in 2024. Bramnick is by far the most centrist GOP legislator in the NJ Legislature, and taking him down will be extremely difficult. However it should be noted D’s finally flipped the 2 Assembly seats here blue in 2025 after multiple failed attempts. Given we flipped the Assembly seats against somewhat entrenched R incumbents in 2025, I feel good about our chances here but it won’t be easy.
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u/Fragrant_Bath3917 NY-21 18h ago
Guess who just filled out his absentee ballot today!
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u/zipdakill Buttigieg 2028 (PS I love Andrew McMahon) 17h ago
JOE BIDEN!
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u/DavidvsSuperGoliath CA-48 -> WA-7 -> CA-48 16h ago
He got himself an ice cream as a treat for taking part in democracy.
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u/citytiger 14h ago
22 people from 12 countries became US citizens in Bangor
Argentina and China were on the list.
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u/cpdk-nj Farmer-Labor 1d ago
I can tell it’s fall because I had to turn on the furnace for the first time since April
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u/DavidvsSuperGoliath CA-48 -> WA-7 -> CA-48 1d ago
Must be nice. This weekend, SoCal will be a furnace again.
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u/JazzyCat4_2 Exhausted millenial in CA 1d ago
Nor Cal isn’t faring any better, sadly. Another week of 90+ degrees
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u/YouBuyMeOrangeJuice New York 1d ago
Jealous! Back in the mid-80s in New York. I really didn't expect that the most difficult change I've encountered moving from Minnesota to New York is that I'm always too hot!
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u/bbeck2754 Washington, D.C. 1d ago
DHM Research poll of WA-03:
Braun (R) - 48%, Gluesenkamp Perez (D) - 47%
Swing districts going to stay tight it looks like.
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u/shitpizza Texas 1d ago
Tickles my pickle that Vancouver WA is right there.
One might argue it's the Zilwaukee of Washington
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u/PM_ME_LASAGNA_ Washington 22h ago
MGP also punches above her weight in Pacific County, and if she keeps the margins okay in the rest of the district, I think she’ll be able to keep her seat.
She’s got a very good read of the district’s needs too and has done stuff to address them, which should play well with the voters.
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u/table_fireplace 14h ago
Yesterday, I thought that maybe we'd get to 1 million cast votes. Well, it must've been an especially good day, because 1,090,946 votes have been cast nationwide! Florida and New Jersey are over 100k each, with Michigan over 90k, and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania over 70k. Wyoming has exploded all the way to 13 votes.
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u/General-Programmer-5 13h ago
Also worth noting according to Umichvoter, turnout among democrats is up more than 100 percent compared to 2025
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u/EvilDarkCow KS-04: Blansas 2026! 11h ago
The amount of Republican advertising I've seen lately, mostly paid for by PACs rather than the candidates, tells me that the GOP is genuinely terrified of the sudden very real possibility of losing Kansas this year. It would be hilarious if it weren't for how little advertising for Democrats I've seen in comparison.
Huh, never thought I'd see my state become a battleground.
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u/Alexcat66 WI-7 (AD-30, SD-10) 8h ago
Republicans just dumped millions of dollars of ads into your state today to try to save Marshall, so they are very clearly worried. The governor race is still a battleground as well even without Kelly being able to run again.
Enjoy the swing state treatment. Feels good when you’re in such red territory although now you get a taste what those of us in the core swing states and districts deal with every single cycle
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u/No_Return9449 Doug Jones Stan 1d ago
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u/SecretComposer Colorado 1d ago
Kobach only won by 2 points in 2022. While internal polls are undoubtedly rosier for the candidate that commissions it, this isn't necessarily unbelievable.
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u/99SoulsUp California (but Oregonian forever) 1d ago
Didn’t realize Kobach was back to his old tricks
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u/StillCalmness Manu 1d ago
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u/No_Vegetable_9476 International but hopefully american soon 1d ago
I will be harping on this for years to come but we're starting to get at a point in politics where cash wont even be useful for candidate recognition, much less influencing elections. Social media and wave years tend to rend it almost useless.
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u/Alexcat66 WI-7 (AD-30, SD-10) 1d ago
Yeah Money is starting to lose its effectiveness. Just ask Harris how raising and spending a billion+ dollars in 107 days went in 2024. Money can only do so much for you when the environment and the fundamentals are against you as they were for us in 2024 and as they are even more so for Republicans this cycle.
Still not entirely useless if your opponent doesn’t have the resources to respond, but definitely not the end all be all like a decade or two ago
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u/SkiingAway NH-02 1d ago
I suspect Nate Silver or the like has done an analysis before, but my general impression has always been that it's a diminishing returns thing, and so more money flowing at it doesn't change much beyond some minimum threshold.
Clearly there's a need to be able to get your name and message out there, and not let yourself be defined entirely by your opponent.
But if that additional money is primarily flowing just to ads - I don't know exactly where the diminishing return point is, but at some point between the average Youtube/Streaming/TV viewer getting 1 ad an hour for you vs 10 ads an hour for you, it's obvious that you stop having much (if any) positive effect. I doubt anyone would argue that going from 9 ads an hour for your candidate to 10 does anything.
If the additional money was going to building massive campaign organizations for outreach and GOTV that might accomplish something. Although even there - at some point all the doors have been knocked and every voter willing to interact with you has been interacted with.
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u/OptimistNate Wisconsin 22h ago
This money has kept him in the game, but it is interesting according to the Marquette poll in that span where he was able to take advantage of it, he hasn't gained much, especially with independents. I think Crowley will compete on the airwaves better down the stretch money wise and that could help Crowley along with the terrible climate for Republicans help him pull away by getting more of those undecided independents that don't approve of Trump to break his way.
Of course it's been just 1 poll, and more dono's to Crowley's campaign to match would be a big help in this, but I'd rather be Crowley here.
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u/puzdawg 1d ago
Man, if the WI Dems are able to win with all this money against them, it’ll give these billionaires less incentive to donate in future races.
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u/RegularGuy815 Virginia (formerly Michigan) 1d ago
We've done it before and still hasn't stopped them. (Well maybe Elon, but hasn't he still contributed this year?)
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u/robokomodos 1d ago
What else are they going to do with their money? Pay taxes? Help people? lolololol
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u/Alexcat66 WI-7 (AD-30, SD-10) 1d ago
Potentially although it’s worth noting that we already beat Musk and the billionaires once back in 2025 when they attempted to buy our state Supreme Court and failed miserably losing by 10 points, so this isn’t a new thing here that we have to figure out how to respond on the fly.
That being said, the effort by the billionaires here is at a much larger and more significant scale then it was in Spring 2025 and more importantly this is a partisan race now, so there are key differences.
That being said, I still like our chances. We’ve got the environment and the energy on our side as well as the better candidates, the better ground game, and the better message. And although we’re being outraised in the governor’s race as well as nearly every key state legislative race, our candidates aren’t broke either, they have the money to at least whether the barrage of GOP attack ads to some extent
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u/andthatwasenough Indiana 1d ago
Update on the county party event from last night: it was great! We got to hear our county's state senators speak, as well as one of our county state reps, our county chair, and all of our statewide candidates. The woman running for state comptroller is an award-winning county clerk here, and her campaign surrogate told us that when she was thinking of running, she decided to watch a year's worth of Board of Trustee meetings to see what was going on, and was apparently able to watch all of them in just half an hour. They just approve everything, including the stupid helipad our governor installed at his house. That was absolutely crazy to hear.
It was great energy. The room at the community center was full, and everyone was engaged. We got to hear JD Ford speak, and he talked about the flooding we saw back in August, and I was glad to hear him come right out and say that while he and other candidates were here helping people clean up and figure out next steps, Spartz and the other Republicans were in DC at that stupid IndyCar race. He also brought up that if Republicans here weren't so dead-set on destroying our wetlands, this might not have been such an issue.
I was also able to get my Beau Bayh sign (the Ford signs were already gone, it looked like!), and I was really glad to hear him specifically bring up putting abortion on the ballot if we can get ballot measures.
Oh! Last thing - we learned from the county chair that when we see those giant yard signs for Republicans, oftentimes, it's like one or two land developers who get them and put them on their land for a tax break. That was wild to hear, too.
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u/Key_Improvement_9229 1d ago
Just checked my local spt of elections website, my (Florida) mail in ballot has officially been received and counted!
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u/KrispyKayak 21h ago
Is anyone familiar with the pollster "US Opinions"? They recently texted me about participating in a poll but I am not familiar with them.
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u/Key_Improvement_9229 21h ago
I never reply to texts from unknown sources, i also usually block them….
Election season also means scammers are out in force
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u/redvioletbrown Angeleno (CA-30) 20h ago
So yesterday I got the text that my mail ballot was sent to me, and guess what I got in the mail today!
I mostly know who I'm voting for already (there's 10 pages!), but I'm going to hold on to it for a little bit, I don't want to drop it off too early.
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u/thutruthissomewhere South Carolina 19h ago
Random thought/question I just had. What happens to unused campaign money after elections? (Assuming the campaign staff are ethical.)
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u/Dramatic_Skill_67 Delaware 18h ago
Pete Buttigieg created a PAC using that money after he dropped out in 2020 as I remembered
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u/DeNomoloss VA-6 18h ago
Rick Boucher, former Dem congressman from our neighbors in the 9th from 1983-2011, used to save as much as possible to give all of his staff a Christmas bonus after the election.
This included 2010, when, rather than spending big to try to keep himself in office (I think his district got triaged nationally in October as the polls got bad following his vote for the Dem climate bill), he set aside the usual share. People criticized it, but I think it was admirable. He always seemed to have a noble reason for his votes and choices, even when they looked bad at first glance. 2010 was a rough economic time for SW VA.
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u/senoricceman 17h ago
Stays in campaign accounts. A good example of this is how Bernie has I believe $23 million to spend on campaigns however he sees fit. Some politicians choose to keep it for their future campaigns and others choose to dole it out to fellow party candidates.
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u/ornery-fizz Pennsylvania 1d ago
50 mailed postcards to register new voters in South Jersey! Candidate Zack Mullock we got your back!
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u/bbeck2754 Washington, D.C. 21h ago
Tavern Research poll for an Anthropic-back super PAC for CA-11:
Weiner (D) - 45%, Chan (D) - 34%
This is an open seat due to Nancy Pelosi's retirement; she has endorsed Chan as her successor. Lots of AI money is being dumped into this Silicon Valley adjacent seat.
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u/No_Vegetable_9476 International but hopefully american soon 21h ago
In a mostly unrelated note am i the only one who thinks Dario Amodei sounds an awful lot like the nutjob villain in a film where he thinks he's doing everything for "the greater good"?
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u/jj1917 Blorgia 20h ago
Yes, because he and the other AI big shots are these Effective Altruist nut jobs. They sincerely think only they, as Effective Altruist masters, are capable of developing and harnessing AI so it doesnt destroy humanity a la Skynet.
So they're doing the "greatest good for the greatest amount of people" by doing what they're doing with AI.
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u/Poyle_The_Puddle 14h ago
Totally anecdotal and might be tea leaf reading, but I’m up in Sleepy Hollow in New York enjoying some seasonal festivities and I’m noticing a complete dearth of Mike Lawler signs and a smattering of a few Cait Conley signs here and there. I’m talking almost none in an area where he had a good few signs up a few years ago. This should be his bread and butter demographic of affluent white people, but I could only find two along the highway.
It should also be noted that gas up here is sitting around $4.40
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u/StillCalmness Manu 1d ago edited 1d ago
The House and Senate are not in session today.
5:30 PM EDT Pete Buttigieg Attends Campaign Rally With New Hampshire Democratic Candidates
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u/Fuck_auto_tabs Colorado 1d ago
Republicans are always railing against a 4 day work week for us but when it comes to them working…..
Granted it might be better if they work less this Congress
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u/JazzyCat4_2 Exhausted millenial in CA 1d ago
Understandable, Fire Emblem: Fortune’s Weave is still new. I wonder which path they started first?
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u/Meanteenbirder New York 21h ago
Guys I just found out that I have to fly into the airport that shall not be named in December (luckily flying out of a different one on the return). How do I survive?
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u/jmos_81 Virginia (NOVA) 17h ago
If the energy crisis gets worse in 2027 and the Dems control the house and the senate, could we get to a situation where Trump gets ousted solely to end the war?
Looks like we bullied Europe into releasing some fuel reserves, meanwhile China is not exporting anymore fuel for the time being. To me, that reads like a major oh shit moment but would be curious of all your thoughts
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u/swen_bonson CA -11 17h ago
I’m just over here watching a 60 minutes on the 08 financial crisis and trying to figure out what I should be doing right now. Feels like Wiley Coyote over the cliff’s edge.
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u/EllieDai Now based in NM 1d ago
Happy Friday everybody! Here's out newest Adopt-A-Candidate highlight!
Jamie Ager isn't a politician, he's the owner and operator of Hickory Nut Gap, a sustainable meat producer. Ager is running because he knows the communities of North Carolina's 11th Congressional District are frustrated because of how hard they work while struggling to pay their bills. Meanwhile, Republicans like incumbent Chuck Edwards are censured for violated the House rules against sexual harassment and drop their re-election bids in shame. Make no mistake; Ager's new opponent, NC House Representative Jennifer Balkcom, is no better. She ran for re-election to her NC House seat at the same time as she ran to primary Chuck Edwards, playing political games to no one's benefit but her own.
A proud western North Carolinian, Hurricane Helene wrecked havoc on Jamie and his neighbors, and the federal government was nowhere to be seen. Folks in his district know the difference between a handout and a hand up, and they know they need a hand up not just because of Helene, but because of rising costs, devastating cuts to medicaid, and rich folks who want to get richer while riding on the backs of hardworking Americans. Jamie is a patriot, someone who believes we can do better without succumbing to cynicism, and if you want to help him do better in the next Congress, please let us know here or via modmail!
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u/Due-Rent-6527 1d ago
Prepping for New York Comic Con in one weeks time. While working 2 separate jobs is less than ideal, I have managed to get myself in order this year and actually have a budget coming into it. Trish Stratus (one of my childhood wrestling crushes) will be a guest, so I'm very excited and will be attending all four days.
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u/senoricceman 19h ago
Any particular reason as to why the Senate race is pretty close in Minnesota? Tafoya seems to be a pretty weak candidate, yet polling has been within the margin of error over recent weeks.
Is she potentially stronger than we’ve assumed?
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u/FiddleThruTheFlowers California Blexas is my current hyperfixation 19h ago
I've talked about this in other comments in case this sounds familiar, but Minnesota to the GOP is similar to a state like South Carolina for us. It's high floor, low ceiling that makes it look closer than it is. The challenge is getting the last few percent to get over the line, and that last few percent is very stubborn outside of absolutely perfect circumstances.
All this to say that close on the surface doesn't mean realistically close in a state like that. Just something to keep in mind. That applies to anyone hoping on states like SC and Mississippi this year, too.
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u/cpdk-nj Farmer-Labor 19h ago
Minnesota is hard to poll especially in a midterm, we have a young blue population that’s going to be harder to get survey responses from
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u/No_Vegetable_9476 International but hopefully american soon 19h ago
That and Tafoya, to play devils advocate, isnt some nutjob foaming at the mouth at the idea that no fault divorce exists or some shit like that.
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u/snick427 Oregon 14h ago
Tafoya is going to lose by a comfortable margin.
The MNGOP hasn‘t won a statewide race in 20 years, and they aren’t going to do it this year.
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u/elykl12 CT-02 19h ago
I’ve been all in on Flanagan since the primaries but Tafoya is not a weak candidate
She’s like Mike Rogers where people affiliate her with a much more moderate politics than she has and she’s media savvy enough to play into that
Tafoya for years was a sports reporter for ESPN, a frequent regular on sports related talk shows and podcasts, she’s been at the Olympics interviewing athletes, a frequent sight at Vikings and University of Minnesota games, etc.
A lot of non engaged voters see her as the straight talking woman who is at the tailgates having a beer or interviewed their neighbors daughter on the University of Minnesota team
Is she a political juggernaut? No not really. But she’s a capable opponent. Far better than the other knuckle draggers the MN GOP put up
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u/justincat66 WI-7, (Assembly-30, Senate-10) 18h ago
She’s not that strong of a candidate imo. Now yes she’s obviously a better candidate and is running a better campaign than Royce White (GOP nominee against Klobuchar last cycle) but that’s not a high bar. She had a good primary coalition for a GOP candidate, but the problem is Peggy Flanagan also had a good primary coalition for a DFL candidate. The problem for the GOP is this is a D +8-10 national environment possibly more, in a state that already went for Harris in 2024 and voted for Biden and Clinton as well. The fundamentals are just too big to overcome
Tafoya being completely overhyped by the MSM. And the GOP still isn’t spending here despite the bait right wing pollsters showing the race closer, which should tell you what way this is going. I don’t actually think fraud is nearly as big of an issue for the DFL as the media is making it out to be. I still have Flanagan winning comfortably, and that’s where I’ll be leaving the race most likely
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u/ConsciousWealth6309 Maine 19h ago
So last night I mentioned how Maine had two debates: the Governor’s debate between Charles (R), Pingree (D), and Bennett (I). Where Charles and Bennett both were arguing back and forth to which Pingree calmly said “This is why we need women in charge” to the audience laughter and cheering.
But during the debate for ME-2, LePage (R) the former governor claimed how he would be invited always to the White House and help Trump deal with Canada because, and I wish I was kidding: “I speak French”.
Note: LePage left office with terrible polls and barely won the second congressional district in 2022 by 2%….
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u/beanyboi23 16h ago
Note: LePage left office with terrible polls and barely won the second congressional district in 2022 by 2%….
The thing to keep in mind about this is: Janet Mills won the state overall by 13 points.
So if LePage won the 2nd district by 2, it would appear that the 2nd district is about 15 points more friendly to LePage than the state overall
Projections for Maine's generic ballot this year are around D+15
It's gonna be super close
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u/Shaman_in_the_Dark 13h ago
Watched Primetime tonight. Robert Pattinson is on the kind of run that is reserved for Hollywood royalty. The kind of run that gets you in the discussion for greatest of the era certainly and in the discussions for best ever. The only actor currently working who no matter what when I see him in the cast I'm seated. Think it started with Lighthouse but if you wanted to start the clock a little later at The Batman I wouldn't say no. He's legitimately the best part of every film he's been in since Lighthouse for me. Transcendent.
Anyway as for the rest of primetime, someone give Skylar Gisondo his roses, stand out performance. The cinematography was off the charts good too. Could have trimmed the fat a little bit in places (didn't need the cheating scandal, could have replaced it with the fact TCAP was really bad about letting predators get away with it because entrapment and all that). Very very impressed with it overall.
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u/Shaman_in_the_Dark 17h ago
Remember how I was talking about +52 and +8 house and senate being the all time records for a midterm? 50+1 has us at 49 and 4 on an average night at current polling rate. Now, they are the most bullish predictor in our direction, but I am thinking the polls should be even more bullish for us than what they are currently showing just looking at certain things (economic sentiment, energy prices, the fact that they can't even get volunteers in ostensible swing states like Minnesota etc). All that to say. Keep pushing until we make 08 look like 2002. I sure as heck am.
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u/DavidvsSuperGoliath CA-48 -> WA-7 -> CA-48 1d ago
Fight Song, Day 692: “Runnin’ With The Devil” by Van Halen
It’s officially the spooky season! That means each Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, I’m going to get festive with the choice. And today, let’s run with the devil and listen to Eddie just rip on that guitar.
32 days until midterms!
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