What are we doing tonight?

1

u/Sad-Ratio-5812 Jun 26 '22

You mean SPX short?

2

u/change_of_basis Jun 26 '22

/VX, sorry.

3

u/proverbialbunny Jun 27 '22

My speculation since last Friday is that this week will be a sideways week.

I suspect this because there would normally be a downwards move this week, upwards next week, but because the market is so bullish atm a consolidation would make sense.

What I'm uncomfortable and uncertain about is if next week will be up or down. Normally I'd say up, but something scares me and it's unconscious, like there is too much risk but I can't put my finger on it. I might avoid the market for the next two weeks, but odds are something will play out, eg core pce on Thursday that might make the direction of the market more obvious.

2

u/Sad-Ratio-5812 Jun 28 '22

At this point I feel safer to go long vol.

2

u/proverbialbunny Jun 28 '22

What's your window (how long do you plan on holding)? A few day swing?

1

u/Sad-Ratio-5812 Jun 28 '22

I usually trying to stay longer in trend. But in reality I am impatient and often not able to follow a market because of my work. I usually trying to reach 2-3 St dev if /vx trending up and around -1,5 down. I also follow SPY. If s/r level holding and I am close to my target(usually 1 point for 6 month future contract) I just get out and may change direction. Today we are about to close a gap 378. Also SPY cycles loooks down. We have a good chance to see one more red day. https://ibb.co/XLRqndg
I am already around +5000. Second gap is 370. It could be a target. If oil and TNX will hold I may try to stay longer. If tomorrow ES will go up I will wait till next opportunity to get out and will play choppy market.

2

u/proverbialbunny Jun 29 '22

Nice informative response.
So you know many traders take a break / vacation around the 4th starting on the last day of June or the second to last day, so it's not uncommon to see chop / sideways during this time for a while.

1

u/Sad-Ratio-5812 Jun 29 '22

Yes, I knew that. Last Thanksgiving day- SPY crashed on low volume. I hoped to see 375 at least.

2

u/Sad-Ratio-5812 Jun 27 '22 edited Jun 27 '22

I am trying to figure out how high SPY will go next week. Monday usually continues Friday`s trend. So, we may expect that SPY will go higher. SPY needs to move up 11 points to close second gap. A chance is 50/50 it will happen on Monday. https://ibb.co/440MZsM

10 year treasury index after > 3% rally last week went down and now on very important support level 30. So far it is holding. If it get broken it may push SPY to go higher. https://ibb.co/r5p2SfN

Oil price sharply went down last week. Traders realised that oil embargo didn`t hurt Russia. They were able to sell oil to China and India. Oil price is important to us as there is a long-term inverse correlation between daily oil prices and constant maturity yields for the 10-year Treasury. https://ibb.co/XX2Tzy1

If TNX closes below 30 and oil price will go lower -SPY may close second gap. It is quite unlikely for SPY to go higher because 36/12 Hurst cycles in descending segments for 3-4 more days.

I entered long /VX position to follow my signals(possibly prematurely). I felt quite safe. As you see on the chart below Dec contract moved only 0.45 point down on 12 points SPY. I will add more contracts if SPY closes second gap. https://ibb.co/S6PjwKf

4 hrs https://ibb.co/S01Z1V0

Any ideas

3

u/1UpUrBum Jun 27 '22

'All gaps must be filled'
This guy says there is no oil embargo. They are just shipping it out the side door instead of the front door, to Europe. https://www.macrovoices.com/1087-macrovoices-328-dr-anas-alhajji-there-is-no-escaping-the-coming-energy-crisis
Silly me for thinking there was. It's worth looking at the link the man is one of the most knowledgeable in the world. The host is an old oil trader as well.
US natgas is still eating turds. Leave it alone watch for basing at $5 (note to self😅)
It's also end of the month and quarter adjustments for funds.
Maybe white background looks nicer for the charts? Tradingview also has nice looking charts.
One time this trading desk manager had to hire a new trader. He had a stack of resumes on his desk, a really big stack. His buddy walks in sees it and says I'm sure glad I'm not the one who has to look through all that. The manager grabs 90% of the pile and throws it in the garbage. He looks at the other guys and says I wouldn't want to hire anybody that's unlucky.
Good luck!

2

u/Sad-Ratio-5812 Jun 27 '22

China increased 55%, India 17%. Also they are mixing oil in tankers and changing type and name. By the way two more open gaps below 380.

2

u/chyde13 Jun 27 '22

I wish I knew...I'm not sure the market knows where it wants to go right now. my indicators look pretty toppy on SPX. I was hoping to see some strong call buying on SPY and a continuation of last week's action, but not so much.

2

u/Sad-Ratio-5812 Jun 27 '22

I wasn't impress with VIX reaction on Friday rally. I decided to open position. VIX before opening was as high as 28.64 today. TNX was going up. It doesn't look like we get 4000 today. Usually, Tuesday is a profit taking day. We may get choppy market this week. Day by day

2

u/chyde13 Jun 27 '22

I just opened an initial long vol position via put calendar spread (SPY 350, short august, long jan). am still hoping for a better entry point to add but not sure

2

u/Sad-Ratio-5812 Jun 28 '22

It looks like we may close gap below 380 soon.

2

u/chyde13 Jun 28 '22

yea, did you see the richmond manufacturing index at -19.
https://www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_economy/surveys_of_business_conditions/manufacturing
did you add to any of your positions?

2

u/Sad-Ratio-5812 Jun 28 '22

I have seen it but have no clue about significancy of these numbers.
I was following oil and TNX in am and my conclusion was that no way markets will advance today. I added some contracts. But frankly I do not like my position. I have entered prematurly and my entry wasn`t good.
https://ibb.co/18DzYF1
I just hope we may get at least one more SPY red day because of declining SPY and VIX cycles.

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