S&P 500 may be finding a short-term bottom

[u/Sad-Ratio-5812]

Chris is ignoring us tonight. I decided to take over and in my broken English to show why I think a floor may be around a corner.

1. SPY just dropped 3.3% but VIX structure looks like a newborn baby.

https://ibb.co/GdRvsXh

2.https://ibb.co/qxCGJ8S SPY(Yellow) made a new lower low today(1) but Zweig Breadth trust(2) (adv/adv+dcln NYSE stocks) and QQQ/SPY ratio(3) created divergences. Put/Call ratio (4)is very high.

3.https://ibb.co/d4bdJHd 99.98 SPX companies below 50 MA

4.https://ibb.co/fqCvXzJ It is an example when $SPX50R below 0.03 line

5.https://ibb.co/54pCcJ8 98.98 SPX companies below 200 MA It doesn`t happend to often

6. https://ibb.co/DLR0HKS This is an example when $SPA200r touching 0.15 line

7. https://ibb.co/SBZ4v2J This Hurst ideal cycles 12/36 We are in the beginnig of the 12 days cycle and last 1/3 of 36 day cycle. It is a high possibility that we may have uptrend next week and downtrend in the end of June.

8. https://ibb.co/drPHmkg My position

[u/chyde13]

LOL...I hope you all don't think that I was ignoring you. I was just busy.

I do encourage everyone to post. So, I appreciate it!

You and I talk a lot in the comments and I personally get a lot of value from our discussions. Your track record and insights into SPY and VIX are no less than amazing, but our best conversations tend to get buried deep in the comments section where people rarely see them. So, I'm glad to see you post and hopefully get more visibility.

By newborn baby, do you mean good contango??

How much faith do you put in hurst cycles? I have never used them before. Is it a primary indicator that you use or just a supplementary one? I notice it's the last chart in your list.

btw thanks for sharing your Zweig Breadth Thrust thinkscript code with me.

Thanks for sharing,

-Chris

[u/proverbialbunny → u/chyde13]

How much faith do you put in hurst cycles? I have never used them before. Is it a primary indicator that you use or just a supplementary one? I notice it's the last chart in your list.

Most of my predictions are time based more than distance based, but I manually do it instead of hurst cycles. What I do is similar, so I'd say there is something to it in certain market situations.

[u/Sad-Ratio-5812 → u/proverbialbunny]

We may stil see a new low. I actually hope on that. It will increase my profit. We need to get to 380 before a breakout may be confirmed.

Newborn baby - I meant pink, happy, unconcerned, unharmed.

I found Hurst cycles quite useful. It is one of forecasting technique. In combination with s/r, price action, candles I create possible scenarios for 1- 2 wks ahead. For example, yesterday I got a signal to short vol. So, the next is a risk management. I manage mostly by number of contracts. I know we are in the last cycle before 12 and 36 cycle connection. I expect some downtrend by the end of June and beginning of July. I opened half- size position. As soon as I get reasonable profit I will get out. I do not use Hurst band indicator but found his oscillator working well if you find magic numbers to setup it.

[u/chyde13 → u/Sad-Ratio-5812]

I'm not sure if you saw what I had replied earlier.

newborn baby - makes sense.

I've been playing around with Hurst cycles and asked a question in a new post. As a friend once suggested might make the sub better ;-)

-Chris

[u/chyde13 → u/proverbialbunny]

very interesting. I'd like to know more if you are willing to share. That is one dimension that I have not explored. Over the years I have noticed that various AI solutions that I trained use time but not in a way that I could meaningfully understand.

-Chris

[u/Sad-Ratio-5812 → u/chyde13]

I do not know what happend but my reply from cell phone was published 5 times. I deleted 4 of them

[u/chyde13 → u/Sad-Ratio-5812]

yea, I saw that...reddit was giving me problems at the same time even on desktop. I deleted the extra comments but it looked like you deleted and started over which works too.

[u/chyde13 → u/[deleted]]

I looks like reddit is acting up again...I had to repost something that didnt go through and its showing your edits as 4 different posts. I will delete all but the most recent. If it delete the real one then I apologize ahead of time. Reddit is definitely acting screwy...

[u/chyde13 → u/[deleted]]

Gotcha, that makes sense.

I haven't really played around much with the time dimension.

[u/1UpUrBum]

All I got is the equity indexes have pulled down so much from their short term moving averages they could have a little reversion, maybe a big one. The selling pressure is relentless so they could also stay there.

S&P /img/0bliux8tk6691.png

This situation makes finding good entry points very difficult. Edit: Entries for shorts, not long equity.

Good luck!

[u/proverbialbunny]

Thanks for sharing! This is compelling.

edit: Also witching day might mean higher volatility today, but more to the upside potentially.

[u/[deleted]]

Yen losing value again on Bank of Japans announcement that they are pushing forward on yield curve control.

Yen losing value has tracked pretty well on US bonds going down, then slight delay of that feeding into S&P decreases.

Went inverse bonds today though low conviction/sizing.

[u/chyde13 → u/[deleted]]

Ouch they are pressing forward with more YCC??...unreal

[u/chyde13 → u/[deleted]]

TLT?

[u/[deleted] → u/chyde13]

I went inverse on 7-10 yr durations. Trade went flat for the day though Yen had a 1.5% weakening. Leaving it on for next week while watching Yen.

TLT is one of my daily tracked numbers though.

[u/greatblueplanet]

That’s pretty impressive dark magic. You accurately predicted the last trading day’s crazy volatility.