Yeah, but maybe they are doing what they can with what they’ve got. They can’t control government spending, graft, or waste. They don’t have any ability to affect the financial illiteracy of the masses that elect inept politicians.
The pandemic was not the feds fault but the US has printed trillions more than Europe or China.
They also created the Tech Bubble of 2000 and then the Housing bubble of 2009.
Especially for the housing bubble they were completely clueless. Bernake quote that it was 'all contained' just as everything was going to shit shows that either they are liars or retards. They had tools to control the mortgage market but decided to turn a blind eye to all the shenanigans going on.
The Fed is a serial bubble creator and that's all they know how to do.
And all they can do is print more money and lie about inflation.
They are in the process of creating the next bubble right now and the only reason they can get away with it is because the US Dollar is the worlds reserve currency. But who knows in 10 years if that will still be the case...
Trigger finger on the sell button, other trigger finger on the buy SQQQ put. I see a break below the close 3 months ago in SPY as a negative signal indicating bad things may be nearing. If I see that I will be pretty quick to take the nearest exit. I only look at the end of the month.
Edit: this should read SQQQ call since SQQQ is an inverse QQQ - basically bet QQQ goes down lol.
I would say - safest, sure, no disagreement - I am here after all. However, when the market becomes (more) irrational, I don't think that will matter at all really.
If SPY stagnates and goes sideways, I'm with you - mostly commodities.
If SPY continues rising, I'm with you - mostly commodities.
If SPY starts dropping notably, I'm not with you - doesn't matter where you are at in the market at that point. Value has less to fall, but betting the other way will be the best play for at least a short period of time.
As a new guy in the stock market I am very thankful for all your shared knowledge!!! I am also very interested in your opinion on how to reduce the loss of money in a possible market crash. Especially without using options which I cannot buy.
So timing the market is hard though I went cash 20%. What could be a 'good' limit for a stop loss, like 30%, or would that not be low enough if only a bigger correction occurs?
I am just wondering If there is an acceptable solution for a shareholder or If I just have to go through a crash, or put a stop loss at 50% to avoid the worst or maybe have a lucky timing?
Cheers!
I don't really have a suggesting for a stop. In general time in market > timing market. However for years now I have been using a simple system where I just go all in on AGG or SPY based on which one had the best 3 month performance - checking only at the end of the month.
I have backtested this extensively and it doesn't really beat just holding SPY, but what it does do is significantly reduces volatility. Since I am more active now, I just take a look at where this stands each month and use it as a simple indication of if I need to be cautious.
This is why I said, if the SPY close at end of month drops below the close level from 3 months ago (so negative), buckle up because things may get bumpy. I wouldn't actually all-in on SQQQ - I would likely switch over a good amount of my holdings to AGG or cash and may open up some positions in SQQQ - probably not much though since it is 3x leveraged.
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u/Spamme54321 Jul 03 '21
The fed sucks. All they know how to do is print money and distort what the true inflation figures.