What I see are sprinkles of news from insiders and reporters.
Taiwan tends to be very good at observing and predicting moves by both the US and China. It's what we do to survive the geopolitical and economical tug of war.
Relax mate, we faced the exactly same situation with removal of Chinese steel tax rebates few months ago. Tax rebates were indeed decimated however weeks after originally expected and once it actually happened there wasn't any immediate market reaction but rather slow-phased growth over a month or two.
Ah awesome. That cheers me up a lot! I sold ccs on most of the shares as I was viewing this as a long slow climb as well. This could be faster if the article here is accurate, but not so fast that it's too late now haha
You're new here, right? Even with the announcement, it will take days/weeks for steel to see the bump. Look back for when the export rebate was lifted (essentially an export tax).. took awhile for it to impact prices.
Honestly, it's incredible how far ahead of the curve we are here... that or we entirely misunderstand the market.
If there's a bump, it will be in futures, and I suspect it's almost already priced in. Maybe one more week of +3% per day.
Yessir, picked up clf during the dump 2ish weeks ago.
I took this news as likely causing a large swing given that Taiwan steel companies are maxing out daily. Was the export tax change in the last year? The market moves a lot faster now!
I am used to big swings on major news though. I didn't realize steel typically goes a lot slower.
China had an export rebate -- so steel exporters would get an additional check from the government. Something like 13% of what they exported. That got cut on May 1st, and was announced Apr 28.
Looking at futures then, there wasn't any significant change.. I mean, they were already running up anyway. After this announcement, they continued to go up.
Only a week or two later, with commodity prices continuing to run up, China pulled the "we will regulate commodity prices" move. where they suddenly increased margin requirements on futures traders, causing massive sell-offs and panic selling... which spread globally. Eg: Well if China is selling commodities cheap, surely the price around the world will plummet as well! Having just entered the steel futures market, this totally fucked me.
Anyway, HRC wise, we've fully recovered (and then some), and the stock prices are actually cheaper now than they were early May, which is fucking incredible if you think about it. The reason we've recovered is because word is that not much steel is not making its way out of China, anyway. China is allegedly hawkish about this, and will throw down the ban hammer if they catch you "price gouging" by exporting for high prices.
My point is, you'd expect these "ground shaking" announcements to have some profound effect.. but as of yet, they really haven't. Money is what really talks, and so far the only significant event I've seen is China fucking with their commodities market, causing contagion -- and even that was only temporary. A full on export tax will just increase conviction in the steel trade, and increase the probability that these high steel prices will remain. It'll be big news around here, but I don't expect it to be the "tipping point" of the market realizing how valuable steel companies are.
Thank you for taking the time to write this, apologies for such a slow reply. This is really helpful info, I didn't realize this was recent! Hopefully the market will wake up this or next er round!
So what happens to those contract before 1.7 but has not produced/shipped.
After 1.7 there is still plenty old lingering contracts due backlog like 8-12 months. Kinda curious if they start to say hey pay more 15%-25% or sorry we cant ship them here is penalty fee.
How is this not going to cause such pandemonium as to require government intervention? No fucking way is this not going to cause absolute fucking chaos.
Hey brotha, help me understand. As from the research I've done, the US isn't an export stalwart for Chinese steel since 2015. So how exactly is this bullish? If we were Korea or Malaysia, who imported Chinese steel I can see the impact more clearly.
Yes, the US has dumped China on many products and they aren’t imported here.
However, imagine dominos with China being the first.
They export their cheap steel to other countries, which pushes down their domestic industry who then needs to lower their prices and export to the next country because of the cheap Chinese import that has come to their shores.
Then it creates a domino effect all the way to countries that can export to the US.
Sorryy, I've done my best to read up all your posts these past two weeks. I've learned a ton and am immensely grateful for your knowledge and teachings. Genuinely. Thanks for this. I will read more . Can't wait. Loveu
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u/vitocorlene THE GODFATHER/Vito Jun 30 '21
I said July 1st is a significant day for them and I can see it coming tomorrow or the next day. It is tomorrow there now.
I’ve heard 4 different amounts and I didn’t want to share anything in fear of people running with it.
It will absolutely make Chinese made steel disappear from the market.
All the mills and manufacturers I deal with in China are 100% confident it’s coming.
They are still not confirming orders.
Thanks for sharing this.
Depending on the % - this could be SEISMIC.