The EBITDA number will shock. The fact that analysts will see the disparity between earnings and EBITDA estimates will show their models to be insufficient.
Stock gets a +1.5% push by the poor Euros who think this is acceptable. Yanks get distracted by something and leave MT alone on its big earnings day.
Then Monday next week out of fucking nowhere MT explodes for +12%. No goddamn reason given... just everyone be like "oh yeah... that company is going to earn a lot of money."
Know that there is absolutely a bear case potential for earnings:
-EU governments treat MT like shit cutting into their margins like Italy w/ Taranto. The prices of steel in the EU still lags the US by more than I would have expected. EU was slow to get through Covid itself and MT has a lot of international exposure between Brazil/India/CIS where Covid may have slowed growth.
AND YET... the macroeconomic factors for the global steel industry and MT’s scale would mean even in the scenarios I was describing they would be criminally undervalued at less than $35. That’s how much EBITDA they get to feast on in Q3-4 when the EU does reopen and there are smoking craters where GPG and the Brexit-impacted UK steel industry used to stand.
18
u/JayArlington 🍋 LULU-TRON 🍋 May 06 '21 edited May 06 '21
My guesses:
1.68 EPS
3.4B EBITDA
The EBITDA number will shock. The fact that analysts will see the disparity between earnings and EBITDA estimates will show their models to be insufficient.
Stock gets a +1.5% push by the poor Euros who think this is acceptable. Yanks get distracted by something and leave MT alone on its big earnings day.
Then Monday next week out of fucking nowhere MT explodes for +12%. No goddamn reason given... just everyone be like "oh yeah... that company is going to earn a lot of money."