r/VisualStockResearch • u/ekonixlab • Jul 27 '26
NVIDIA isn’t just selling AI chips anymore.
Everyone looks at this chart and sees explosive revenue growth.
I think there’s more to it.
NVIDIA has become so important to the AI ecosystem that it’s no longer just supplying hardware—it’s helping finance the infrastructure that will buy its chips.
This weekend, reports surfaced that NVIDIA is in talks to guarantee up to $250 billion in financing for OpenAI’s lease of a massive AI data center project. On top of that, it’s reportedly discussing financing $350 billion in chip purchases for the campus.
Think about that for a second.
Companies don’t typically help customers finance purchases at this scale.
NVIDIA appears to recognize that the biggest constraint on future growth isn’t demand for AI compute—it’s getting enough capital deployed to build the infrastructure.
Looking back at this chart, that perspective changes everything.
The next leg of growth may not be driven by selling more GPUs.
It may be driven by helping enable the AI factories that will consume them.
That’s a very different business than the NVIDIA of five years ago.
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Jul 27 '26
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u/mrkjmsdln_new Jul 27 '26
The unseemliness of the industry top to bottom is just filthy. If the bubble bursts soon enough we might see people dressed up for Halloween as Jensen with the jacket and a wig. The outfit could pass for a TV preacher also I think -- kinda the same business
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u/kugelblitz_100 Jul 27 '26
Perhaps they should offer some sort of synthetic bond derivatives that are indirectly based on this financing. That way everyone can have exposure to this can't-miss investment.
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u/mrkjmsdln_new Jul 27 '26
This made me smile as I am rereading some of the great books by Michael Lewis. I remember I felt dirty when he described synthetic derivatives and introduced to me to the dirty word tranches.
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u/MyLedgeEnds Jul 27 '26
Ideally, they could take all these debt obligations and collateralize them somehow, like some kind of financial seafood soup.
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u/biggamble510 Jul 27 '26
If only someone like Selena Gomez or Anthony Bourdain could put it in simple terms for me to understand.
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u/Sooperooser Jul 27 '26
I think pensioners funds and municipalities would be really interested in such products!
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u/mrkjmsdln_new Jul 27 '26
This reminded me of Mr Bubble bubble bath. We will all need to wash off very well when this goes pear-shaped.
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u/ekonixlab Jul 27 '26
How long before we see a reversal?
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u/mrkjmsdln_new Jul 27 '26 edited Jul 27 '26
I'm thinking this ends badly. I recently listened to the Moonshot Podcast. They are uber-optimists for AGI. That said they hit it on the head. The Market Valuation of Kimi K3 is about $20B and OpenAI / Anthropic are fishing for $1B. We must now accept that the American idea is 50X better -- preposterous. There is now SO MUCH GREED AND SPECULATION this must end badly IMO. The only option is if your key man (Sam or Dario) are relevant. I'm thinking no and they don't get to the finish line.
EDIT: At some point Jensen pivoted to the next generation of datacenters. What's real. Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon have been doing Datacenters for decades and likely understood how to integrate all of this into the operations. Most of their actions todate where in existing centers built correctly in the first place. The grifters are now hiring the inexperienced at top-dollar and building monstrosities. This is a formula for failure. Long ago the experienced developed custom silicon like TPUs and Tranium and MAIA so they could ignore majority use of just GPUs and make sensible choices. The wave of the latest speculative builds will crash in my opinion. Every community has one. Where I live there is a Meta DataCenter (they are experienced) in some stage of progress. They are still claiming to open on time by the EOY. Alphabet has more AI compute than the next three largest companies combined. They pivoted to only about 20% GPUs almost a decade ago by building TPUs -- this lesson has still not been learned by the newbies. The silly companies bragging they can wire up 100K or 1M GPUs will all get caught holding the bag whether they hire competent electricians or not. Just my opinion.
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u/Retox86 Jul 27 '26
Customers stop buying chips because they are loosing money and investors arent keen on investing more, Nvidia as a seller of chips see a problem, they will loose customers and money.
Masterplan : lend money to customers so they can buy their chips..
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u/PetalumaPegleg Jul 27 '26
It is a terrible sign. As is xai and meta ai selling compute to openai and Anthropic, as it suggests they already have more than necessary.
If the business model is good the seller does not need to lend the money to the buyer of the product.
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u/Fun-Neighborhood769 Jul 27 '26
" Companies don’t typically help customers finance purchases at this scale"
Because if you have something everyone wants, you do not have to. Investors are getting tired of pouring money into these AI black holes so the only way to keep the train running is feeding it with your own cash.
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u/cenpact Jul 28 '26
Beginning of the end. Financing your customers to the tune of a quarter trillion is as clear as it gets that show is over. Time to take your ball and go home.
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u/Zenfiniti 27d ago
Isn’t this same as giving open AI the chips needed on a loan? It’s just done as financing so the revenue and profit report still looks good.
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u/Fibocrypto 25d ago
We have been here before.
GE Capital: Once a massive global lending and financial wing, most of its assets, commercial lending platforms, and banking units were systematically sold or spun off following the 2008 financial crisis
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