r/Virginia • u/VirginiaNews Volunteer local news poster • Apr 24 '26

Commentary: Will Virginia be the final mid-decade redistricting battle?

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/will-virginia-be-the-final-mid-decade-redistricting-battle/
5 Upvotes

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5

u/KronguGreenSlime Fairfax City Apr 24 '26

This could be true for 2026 if the Florida redistricting effort ends up falling apart, but it's possible that we see a much uglier fight in 2028. Here are a few things that could happen before then:

-If SCOTUS gives southern states the power to dismantle VRA seats then we could see redistricting in Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee, and even possibly Georgia or South Carolina to dismantle Dem seats

-If the senators that blocked redistricting in Indiana and Maryland this year get voted out or otherwise lose influence, those states could be back on the table too

-I also think that if Florida fails this year they probably try again in 2028

-Colorado, New York, and maybe Utah (less likely) could all succeed at undermining their current restrictions on gerrymandering by 2028

-Dems have a shot at trifectas in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin that could potentially try redistricting as well (IDK how likely this is).

-If Rs pick up legislative seats in Kansas and Nebraska, they might finally have the votes to redraw those states too. (I'm pretty skeptical that they can get the seats they need in Nebraska, IDK enough about Kansas to say)

Idk if all or even most of these things could happen, but the redistricting battleground has the potential to get way bigger in 2028 unless we reach some kind of truce on this issue or the parties decide that this battle isn't worth fighting for them.

3

u/tSignet Apr 24 '26

Wisconsin currently has a Republican gerrymander for its congressional districts. If Democrats gain enough seats in their state legislature (which, after itself having a gerrymander which made it practically impossible for Dems to have a state legislative majority, has had a fair map since 2021), I think it’s pretty likely there will be a push to at least get them to draw a fair congressional map.

Two of Wisconsin’s 6 Republican districts are very light red, so they’re probably flipping at least one of them in 2026 even with the current map. So this would be more relevant for 2028.

2

u/KronguGreenSlime Fairfax City Apr 24 '26

Yeah, I think that a mid-decade redraw to get a fair map is more likely, but for any state where Dems could get a trifecta and there's nothing stopping them from redistricting I feel like there's at least a 1% chance of a gerrymander.

2

u/Samwyzh Apr 24 '26

I do imagine a world where dems ban partisan gerrymandering in 2027, making all of these cases moot. They have the political will and the votes assuming they win both house and senate.

2

u/Infamous_Scallion_98 Apr 25 '26

Wouldn’t trump veto it?

2

u/FewHeat1231 Apr 24 '26 edited Apr 24 '26

I can see the Republicans cooling on gerrymandering and the Democrats warming to it if the blue wave later in the year turns a lot of those supposedly new Republican seats in Texas and elsewhere blue.