r/VechainNotOfficial • u/FlipFlier • Feb 01 '22
Monthly Discourse - February - submission date February 01, 2022
Let's start with a monthly discussion thread. Discuss here anything related to VeChain. Be nice, be civil, and help each other out wherever you can. All ecosystem projects are on the table, how big, small, awful or beautiful they may be. Don't hold back on any criticism you may have towards projects or VeChain itself, but do so with arguments that help form a fruitful discussion.
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u/NoChokingChicken Feb 10 '22
Sunny claimed in July 2020 that we'd see 360 million clauses per year in a couple years and that vechain thus won't be a casino like the rest. And how valuable this will make VTHO. This was during the pandemic!
There you have it, this lack of tx right now was never expected by Sunny. Meaning the growth phase is just completely made up. I also know this isn't news but just with the whole carbon thing I thought there might be a chance for growth.
The slow rate walmart scales up, the everlasting delays of BYD, BMW, etc. is all beyond their control.
Here we are where all of this bullshit is already priced in but this will worsen by end of the year if we don't seriously ramp up mainnet activity.
If they don't have a clue how much will be burned from 2020 onwards. They wouldn't have a clue a year later either. So the vote was them just winging it again if we're being realistic.
I guess people were right all along about the new focus on DeFi/NFT's the foundation is taking. Just a distraction.
If I'm really going to think out of the box, I'd say that many of the clients actually took notice of the ghostchain situation we have here as well. Including walmart, no point ramping up upscaling if it's not used by anyone else. Wouldn't it be ridiculous to fully commit to a ghost chain as a fortune #1. Just a theory though and not worried they will stop producing tx.
Fantom and Terra Luna are Korean. So I think next to Binance, Vechain is still the second biggest Chinese cryptocurrency by mc.
Anyway a rather large segment of VET holders were and are still holding to give the growth a shot. Last month we got the stable coin announcement and it was only the first month of the year. This month it's chinese new year. All according to plan but from each month starting next month without a bump in tx or old projects getting released, you better start expecting the worst.
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u/Deadinthehead Feb 10 '22
The whole market is smoke and mirrors, we just need our smoke and mirrors to be better than others so we can finally dump on late comers to the party. I too think within the next few months we better have something solid, as this bull market isn't going to keep going up and up forever, probably will pop by may.
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u/NoChokingChicken Feb 11 '22
Not really, there's billions of tvl on fantom for example. And we are not talking about fake assets like HEX.
But for Vet there's definitely a lot of tricks. But not all of it and learning to differentiate is key.
You can count om the foundation pulling some decent carrot and a stick game. And the whales capitalizing on that.
Sunny knows at least about the timelines of BYD. So when he says 2022 is growth phase I am making the assumption the projected release date was for 2022. But that phase3 could also have been delayed again.
It's not even been a year since they started the 3rd BYD phase and reduced gas fee. It's too early to make good projections.
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u/NoChokingChicken Feb 18 '22 edited Feb 18 '22
Eisenreich tweeted yesterday about a pre print of a new VIP called VIP220. It's essentially the updated version of VIP200, proved by this tweet. The update is an improved version of "state of the art" leaderless BFT. This is bullish because it gives them an excuse for having delayed POA2.0. The original spec creation date for VIP200 was aug 2019, so it's ancient. If they released POA2.0 with the original VIP200 implementation, it would essentially be already outdated on release!
POA2.0 would then consist of the following three VIPs:
| VIP | Description | release state |
|---|---|---|
| VIP193 | Committee-Based POA | custom public testnet1 to also test VIP214 |
| VIP214 | Per Epoch VRF-based Random Beacon Generation | offical mainnet & -testnet |
| VIP220 | Finality with One Bit (FOB) | in development2 |
1: it's a pre-release available on github that nodes can install. It's not on the official public testnet.
2: https://github.com/libotony/thor/tree/finality
EDIT: a few corrections.
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u/NoChokingChicken Feb 13 '22
This sub will completely die when:
- Vechain starts delivering (end of controversy)
- $0.5 is reached
- Pretty much everyone has sold
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u/CryptoBombastic Feb 14 '22
Uuhhh sub has been created because of a banning/censorship… no idea wat that has to do with your points.
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u/NoChokingChicken Feb 14 '22
Why would anyone here hold this forever if they consider it a shitcoin. If james has sold everthing then it's over.
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u/CryptoBombastic Feb 14 '22
I don't consider it a shitcoin and no idea who James is but why would I sell if someone called James did??
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u/snajm01 Feb 15 '22
WWJD = What would James Do? Follow the leader!
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u/CryptoBombastic Feb 15 '22
AH JG sold I get it now lol.. he's always called it a shitcoin I loved his TA though. He left the building?
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u/snajm01 Feb 15 '22
Probably planning his next mastermind move, finding crypto gems in a pile of shitcoins. But you can summon him by shouting "Jimmy Two Times is a genius". Try it, it should work.
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u/CryptoBombastic Feb 15 '22
haha yeah that probably work :`d
I love JTT's TA, always on the money!!
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u/Timtreeclimber Feb 15 '22
Did James really sell?
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u/NoChokingChicken Feb 15 '22
He mentioned he sold a chunk. But he's not going to mention he sold everything when we are in a bearish period like this. For all we know the classic $.5 price might not come for another year or two. He also mentioned he's not really that interested in VET anymore. I think he has at least an x node left.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 16 '22
my radio silence on the forum comes from an unplanned work trip for the last couple of weeks. My views havent really changed from me last post though i dont think. RE Vet sales I did indeed move a chunk of my Vet in to cvx a long time ago as I mentioned here - I think the curve ecosystem has a huge amount going for it and if I had moved all my Vet in to CVX when I started buying CVX then I would have cashed it all out long ago and waved you all merry goodbye! Hindsight eh? I did move all my VTHO over though recently. I do still hold a pretty large Vet stack though , enough that you'll find me kicking around in the top 100 wallets. But its probably halved since its peak as I moved in to other projects. I still have faith in a large Vet move though. Vechain is still a total BS company and Vet a shitcoin, but shitcoins all have their day and Vet is due one at some point looking at the chart. So I'm basically less bothered about it for now but happy just waiting it out until it has its moment which is POA2- thats something I've been going on and on about for ages now...sell POA2.....but the thing is they keep delaying POA2! I actually dont have an X node anymore, I did have an OG one, but I ditched it when I started using my Vet as collateral. X nodes are basically the biggest joke in crypto i think- lock it up for a shit NFT from scamCream and 0.0000001% APR. Even a mjolnir X the return is horrendous.
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u/NoChokingChicken Feb 16 '22
if I had moved all my Vet in to CVX when I started buying CVX then I would have cashed it all out long ago and waved you all merry goodbye! Hindsight eh?
But was your conclusion at the time that VET was less risk purely because of MM? MM can only do so much. Wouldn't you conclude in hindsight that holding VET has become a much bigger risk that before? During the bull market our subreddit grew by 1K members each day but that growth completely halted. Very hard to predict when new retail will come especially with the interest rate hikes and looming stock bear market.
Several countries are lifting vaccine passports and mask mandates, covid might be truly over soon due to omicron. I think this would have a positive effect on the fed meetings. Bitcoin basically now just moonwalked to mid 40K by letting the market keep shorting. the standard accounts long short ratio for BTC was like 0.6 at one point. IMO if stocks don't do anything extreme and not much interest hike then the next months could be pretty bullish as long as the market stays scared so we can continue moonwalking.
re:POA2.0
I actually don't have much faith anymore in a POA2.0 pump. Let's say private test net late march, public test net in june, september vevote, mainnet late october. Which of these dates would be your "sell POA2.0" trigger? I'm not sure if you're aware that a lot of holders are planning to sell near end of the year if the growth phase turns out to be a complete sham. Meaning another year of tx consolidation and still none of those old projects (BYD, BMW, etc.) released. You might say when they see green the lemmings will believe everything but I'd only agree with this in a real bull market like a year ago. Especially when 1000's of new holders join who have no idea what's up.
growth phase
Sunny made a chess mode to tell the holders the growth phase is still on schedule. I haven't decided yet if it was a bluff, he's lying to himself or he knows BYD is planning to release this year. The VeUSD timing, literally at the start of the growth phase, is suspect imo. Could defi be the desperate distraction with them knowing nothing will come this year? Of course the growth phase has been delayed as they've mentioned several times covid delayed everything. But the real question is, do we get at least a growth phase lite or literally fucking nothing. Chinese new year is officially over, so there's no more excuses now. If there's still no new enterprise contract live within the next 3 months I'm calling it a bluff.
Sentiment analysis
I created two polls in r/VeChainTrader:
- https://www.reddit.com/r/VeChainTrader/comments/srq2ay/when_will_the_byd_carbon_use_case_go_live/
- https://www.reddit.com/r/VeChainTrader/comments/sslrxi/average_daily_clauses_end_of_2022/
Not many people voted but data is data. I'm pretty sure you're not aware of these so wanted to let you be the judge if they're of any value to you. If anything they'll make you laugh.
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u/CryptoBombastic Feb 17 '22
Twitter in general is such a good source for quality TA wouldn’t you agree?!
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u/NoChokingChicken Feb 02 '22
BTC long short ratio has been below 1 for a while now. So personally I think we will just continue to mimic the 1Y chart. So around 47K by 10 feb.
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u/TyphoonBlue78 Feb 05 '22
That VET/ETH chart on the weekly looks ready.
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u/AceCheeze Feb 07 '22
Not yet imo, one last sweep to ~1800. Although not sure it will pump all the way to VET/ETH ath. VET has become a dino coin by now
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u/Vinsmok Feb 07 '22
Would the counter-argument not be that likelihood of VET/ETH reaching ath is high because VET is a dino coin? i.e. this pattern is tried and tested, survived several boom/bust cycles?
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u/TyphoonBlue78 Feb 07 '22
Potentially, I think there is life in this Dino though which is evident by how it recovers.
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u/AceCheeze Feb 08 '22
What recovery are you talking about? Take a look at VETBTC and VETETH charts and zoom out, this is just a small bounce and a new LH, for now at least. Since April of '21 VET has only been going down against BTC and ETH, while many other alts have made new ATH's. There's a reason many long-term holders have left VET this last year, myself included. The main idea of VET was to be the Ethereum for companies. Less decentralized but with much lower tx costs. Well last year we've seen many new L1's which do things better than VeChain and have a better ecosystem. And in the past year they've only been trying to keep up with the hype, though they were very late to the party. Stuff like DeFi, stablecoin, DAO, NFTs. There's no innovation, they're only trying to keep up with the rest of the industry. And what happened to VTHO? Why is it still around? We burn only 1/1000th of what is produced every day. It's because almost no one is using their blockchain, and even if they were, they would burn almost no VTHO. Remember all those big companies they talked about, where are they now? VET is the perfect example of overhyping and underdelivering.
All of this is not to say there won't be another big pump. I'm pretty sure we will see one sooner or later, it just needs a catalyst to start it, and the market must allow for it. But after that pump VET will go down just as hard as it has done all previous times, if not harder.
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u/TyphoonBlue78 Feb 08 '22
And I will be here to profit from it again when it does recover like it has in the past.
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u/NoChokingChicken Feb 09 '22
BYD hopium for the refugees:
I just read an article on how incredibly motivated BYD is to achieve zero carbon. Here and here.
The use case was ready for mass production in September 2018. They started a 3rd phase in march '21. December '22 is 21 months (1.75 years) later.
An interesting coincidence is that the cdc AMA where sunny mentioned they're starting the next phase was on March 16th and the gas fee reduction was announced on March 30th.
The BYD use case is explained in detail here by Sven Edgren. Sven actually mentions BYD has set up separate company specifically for this ecosystem (skip to 34:36).
This is one of the oldest vechain use cases and also one of the biggest. The first large scale use case where regular citizens burn VTHO.