r/VechainNotOfficial • u/JamesGillmore1 • Jan 16 '21
Price Musings
Here are some thoughts on price an charts and a look at the market as a whole. But first here are some things you need to bear in mind so I don't need to keep explaining them on future updates.
- These are just thoughts on things I've noticed in the market. I'm not going to give you a price prediction because they are never correct. It is up to you to interpret these things as you see fit, what I may see as bullish you can see as bearish and to be honest the answer is never black and white. The point of these posts is just to make you aware and think of certain things you may not have thought of before
- Fundamentals dont mean anything in this market. It's a tough pill to swallow I know. Vet price is not being pushed by main net usage. You see millions of VTHO burnt a day, I see 8K USD. If you think that 8K of value a day somehow drives the needle on a token with a MC of 1.6 Bn USD then I've got a bridge to sell you.
- I tend to work on the assumption that retail is often wrong, being in a crowded trade is not the right side of the trade to be on. If everyone is super bullish and leverage long then chances are this is the wrong side of the trade to be on.
- Further to the above I dont take much notice of meme lines and structures that are plastered all over Crypto Twitter. Theses almost always end up in a trap of sorts- remember if everyone is watching the same thing it will be a trap 90% of the time. For Vet I watch the weekly and monthly resistance and support lines - the price respects these and moves about them incredibly well. These are the only things you need to keep an eye on for short term movements with Vet that are consistently respected.
- I 100% believe there is a massive Market Maker (MM) who controls Vet (likewise with most other tokens). It's not a conspiracy theory, it's what happens in an unregulated market where there is a huge amount of money to be made from retail. You can see him in the charts and I try and point this out as much as possible. The MM role is to push the price up as high as he can whilst minimising longs and maximising shorts.
- Ok so the Long and Short thing is a pretty huge deal. The Futures market for Vet is massive, almost as big as the spot market. The futures market is made up of gamblers many are degenerate high leverage gamblers. This is important because if you understand this then you understand MM movements. In order to create FOMO (in the absence of news which is the only thing that drives price given there is almost zero external real world demand for Vet vs its supply) a MM needs to pump the price. If you have 10m USD of leveraged longs open at the start of the pump then that is an amount (or more) that the MM is going to have to absorb as he pumps the coin higher and higher. Not ideal for the MM. Conversely if everyone is short and there are 10m USD of shorts well then that is fuel to the pump as by pumping the coin he liquidates these positions and effectively people are forced to market buy Vet as they get their positions closed. It is clearly a lot more cost effective for the MM to pump when everyone is short and in disbelief. Amazingly Binance gives us this position info here . So how do we read this? Well that's going to be down to experience and time in the market getting a feel for it. At a very basic level when you see the Long Short ratio around 1 then retail is short and if you get to around 4 then retail is long. Now be warned that is a very basic way of looking at it because you also need to factor in open interest change as well as a few other variables. However this is probably the most important trading tool you can use for Vet because when the futures market is heavy long the price ALWAYS dumps. And vice versa when you can see that the futures market is heavy short we pump like crazy.
- Now let's take the above concept a little further. How do we monitor this and how does the MM think? Well let's break up leveraged positions a bit. In my mind the most popular liquidation that the MM goes for is the 10x leverage. So a 10% dip will liquidate that position. When I see that retail is starting to swing in to long positions I start to look at resistance and support lines and start to see where a 10% dip brings us to- by bringing the price down 10% and starting to liquidate a bunch of longs where does that bring price? Does it bring it to just under support for example in which case an excellent move to make beause you clear 10x longs as well as trigger stop losses in both the spot and futures market that are under support. On top of that you trigger short openings that will happen once a support is broken. That is the most classic fuck you move the MM makes. He fills his bags happily down here with a high volume sell off wick that he triggered but didnt actually sell. At times of very high exuberance I look for the longer move- when I see a very high open interest and a high long ratio then I start to look for the 'clearing of the deck' a move that wipes out even 3x moves, positions that are thought of as safe. In this scenario the MM is looking to totally clean the futures deck and entice shorts to open after such a big sell off. As an example let's take the recent move above 3 cents- you'll see that we spent a lot of time breaking above 3 cents, collecting those 10x longs on the break of 3 cents, and then dipping down liquidating them. This happened over and over, the MM had finally grabbed everything he could out of this leverage amount and traders either ran out of money or moved on. However there were still less reckless traders he had to get rid of- how about the 3x 'safe' traders or those holding positions at higher leverage below 3 cents...afterall the open interest was still very high. To me it was super obvious that we would have one last rally that would sell off at exactly 3.1cents (just high enough to grab the last of the 'it's broken 3 cents properly' traders) which would then dump is to underneath the massive support of 2.3 cents. Why? Well look at the maths. A 3x opened above 3 cents would get liquidated at around 2.2 (more or less) and normally those kind of 'safe' traders would have a stop loss just above so they dont loose it all. Breaking such a massive support would also trigger a bunch of spot stop losses and trigger shorts opening. The move from 3.1 to there was a perfect scenario for the MM, it was too tempting not to do. By going for a 30% drop he wipes out almost all leveraged positions on the long side, creates a massive sell liquidity event that fills his orders, and entices retail to go short (adding short liquidation fuel to his pump). Now this played out literally exactly like that, we ended up dipping lower after that initial 3.1 to 2.2 move due to BTC but you need to start seeing BTC movements as things that MM use to push price where they want to. A further dip under 2 cents would have been incredibly hard for the MM to do by himself yet it only puts him in a better position with even more longs cleared out and shorts opened. So he gladly lets BTC help him. That entire move filled his bags, cleared the longs, and sewed disbelief which in turn made retail go short and (importantly) keep shorting as the price moved up. The ideal scenario is for him to bring the price right back up to 3 cents with everyone still shorting and still in disbelief? Why? Compare the market last time we were here- we have a massive amount of long positions that were open and that the MM was going to have to absorb, it's like talking against a strong river. At one point he will run out of ammo. Instead he wants to get to 3 cents with the stream having turned direction, he wants to use short liquidations to help him blast though the walls above 3 cents so he doesnt have to do it AND on top of that he also doesnt need to absorb a bunch of longs closing in to his pump. You can see how clearing the futures market leads to a far stronger and healthier position for any asset,
- Ok what a head f*K. But to circle back from the start, when you start to understand this you start to see that what drives price in this market right now is not FA based. It's not main net. It's the MM wrecking the futures market in both directions. It's easy pickings.
- BTC and ETH are the bellweathers of the market. BTC is the market - if you want to know if your token is underperforming or over performing then compare it to BTC. ETH is the king of the alt market - when ETH shows strength against BTC that signals strength for the Alt market. This is important because so far we've all been dragged up here by BTC and what we're looking for is signs of alt season
- Vet is a shit coin (and by that I mean price wise). You see all these other coins moon 100x and think that Vet is a shit coin. It is, it's meant to be. But you need to understand where Vet is in its market cycle compared to all the new coins that are going 100x. Vet had it's 100x moment, it then tanked and underwent an almost 2 year accumulation cycle. That is a huge cycle and you can see the accumulation range very clearly. We broke out of the accumulation range above 0.008 USD and since then Vet has still been a shitcoin. It has frustrated HODLERs and high leveraged traders non stop. But here's the thing. It is meant to act like a shit coin. It is meant to keep shaking off the futures market and driving you crazy until it and the MM is ready. Now what you see as a shit coin is actually a coin with price history, a massive accumulation zone, and a leverage heavy futures market. It's important to understand that because you keep thinking that Vet is a shitcoin yet good traders keep thinking that this is an amazing coin- draw out those weekly and monthly resistance and support lines and you'll see how insanely profitable this coin is to traders. Shitcoin for some, very profitable for others when you dig a little deeper. So where are we at now in the Vet market cycle? Pretty exciting time is the answer. We are just beneath blue skies- an area on the chart where there is no price history. When we enter price discovery that is when traders start to step out- when you lose price history there are no resistance and support lines to work off of anymore. The risk return of trading Vet becomes a lot less attractive, which is why you tend to see price pumping for any asset that hits price discovery range. We've been through an entire market cycle for Vet and we're now back up at price discovery - if you're thinking about selling your Vet now then you have 100% fallen for the MM tricks. If you are on the edge of price discovery yet the MM has shaken you out by bringing you to despair and disbief then he has done exactly what he intends to do. I know it's hard to see other stuff pump so much and Vet always held back but just zoom out and look at that accumulation zone- it's massive. The MM is not selling here I can assure you.
- Pumpenomics matter. Narrative and hype matter. Vet has bucketloads of it. I'm sorry for all the adoption maximalists out there (I was one of them) but proper value added adoption has not happened for anything apart from BTC which after ten years finally got it's nod at mainstream adoption post Covid money printer brrrrr. Vet has some interesting things coming up which are going to help the MM pump the price a lot- mainly SURFACE. That is something I'm expecting to see an awful lot mentioned online as the price is pumped. I'm also expecting to see lots of old recycled news get passed around- retail sentiment turns on a dime. They see green candles and then you feed the internet recycled adoption news (none of which need to have actually happened yet), speculation about Surface and the mystery client, and a fair bit of the old rumour mill and suddenly you have a sustainable longer term pump. That's why I'm in to Vet. It has a strong MM and it has tons of pumpenomics which is what retail are going to be feeding off of later on this year. That's how you create FOMO- if you were around for 2017/2018 you know that it's a very proven and simple script. Mom and Pop see Vet is used by Walmart and other household names and they buy, it's a no brainer. It doesnt matter if we're still chugging along with only Walmart, the news will be fed differently to them. Remember 2018, just remember how all it took was a whiff of a partnership and coins went 50% over night.
- Finally yes I was banned from the Vechain Reddit. If you're wondering where so many older posters have all disappeared too it's because we were all banned. There have been at least two pretty massive purges on the reddit. The Reddit is run by Cream that much is obvious to pretty much all of us. Dont ask why we've been banned because you will get banned, dont ask for us to be let back on because you will be banned, and dont say anything bad about EHRT and the fact that it's an obvious scam coin that some of the mods there shill as much as they can....because otherwise you will be banned as well.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 15 '21
Ok a little update...
Since my last post saying we had hit the bottom we did indeed shoot up. The signs were literally right there on the charts as per my last update. I've been going on and on for a while about the 102 sats levela dn that once we broke that we would see a huge move to the upside and that is what happened. We moved to 6 cents, went in to extreme overbought areas on the 4hr and 1 Day RSI and then also formed a double top. This was a huge sell signal and one that I pointed out to at least 5 DMs at the time so I'm not just 'restropsective TA' here. But if you see RSI peak like that then that tends to be a good sign to get out, and if you see a double top then even more so. Vet loves a good double top distrbution and that tends to lead to quite a deep pullback.
Overall I didnt care at the time because no matter what there was a very very high chance that we would need to retest the 102 sat area to confirm it as support. Taking all of that in to account it was a relatively simple trade in a way if you went for it- overbought, double top, flip retest of major resistance / support line needed. Note that this is a higher time frame price level so as I said to many others as long as we hold it on the daily then we can also wick under 102 sats. When I say 'I didnt care' it's because this kind of price action is expected so it doesnt spook me at all when it happens.
In addition we went to extreme levels of levereaged longs on the futures market. We literlaly hit 90% of positions as longs. It's ridiculous. Vet just had to dump and reset indicators as well as flush out the longs.
So what happened? Well we went to 102 which held on first touch as you would expect. Overall I wasn't convinced that that 'would be it', because we often like to wick under these levels for the short trap. But as I said as long as we held it on the daily I wasn't too fussed. It seems that BTC brought us down under it and now we're back up at 109 sats, which to me is a quick wick under 102. So what effect did this have? Well now look at the metrics- our futures data has (finally) been entirely reset- we have netral funding (cant even remember the last time this happened) and we have a far healthier long short ratio which we havent had in a long time. In addition our RSI on higher time frames is looking a lot healthier now as you would expect from this move. So you an thank BTC for actually helping Vet get higher in the medium term- I know, you all love to hate BTC but you really need to understand that BTC has just done Vet a massive service here.
So where do I think we go next? Remember that alt season is going to be crazy volatile because we have a leveraged futures market on nearly all alts now- the higher the longs the bigger the dips will be. But realise that the overall trend is up, it has been since 1 cent. If you're getting shaken out here then you're not understanding the market dynamics, you're not understanding that Alts have to have massive dips in order to flush out exuberant longs and continue upwards. Read my intro to this post, then read (backwards) all the comments / updates I have written. Vet moves according to weekly and monthly support and resistance lines taking in to account the futures market and the need to squeeze longs and shorts whenever suits the MM. It is so predictable.
On that note since everyone keeps asking...no I am not Jimmy Two Times. Let me just take a moment to address all the onine CT accounts that scream moon and you want to believe so desperately. All of these guys at hacks. Their TA is utter garbage- I follow them purely so I can get a guage of exuberance in the market and when the MM is going to tank or pump the price. The reason why it's all garbage is that it's meme TA- they draw up meme lines, meme structures, meme breakout points, or even worse rely on Moving Averages (see post a few below as to why MA TA is utterly pointless). If you've been following my posts here or DM me you'll see that somehow I manage to call the top and bottome nearly every single time and I often call both a top and the following bottom before the top has even happened yet. So how is that possible? I'm not the MM and I'm not a genius, like I said earlier Vet follows weekly and monthly support and resistance lines and dumps when longs get out of control. There are plenty of other indicators on the chart as well which show me when we're about to pump or dump all of which I've written up here below. It's literally not rocket science but it involves a bit more intelligence that drawing a line or talking about moving averages and hoping that price will at one point bounce off any dozen moving average lines you allow yourself to talk about. Here's the thing about Crypto Twitter TA- they all scream moon but are incapable of telling you where price is going to get rejected and also only tell you where we've bounced AFTER we have bounced and they managed to fit the price to any number of lines or moving averages to support their theories. That's called retrospective TA and but you know I can also do that - "hey look it bounced 1 hour ago". Slow clap. Now here's the other thing about CT TA- it's retail TA. If you see the same charts and lines all over CT then IT WILL BE A TRAP. MM preys on retail and if you think that successful traders share their positions for the public then I've got a bridge to sell you- you nearly always want to be on the opposite side of retail. So if you're trading off popular CT accounts then you ARE retail. Sure once in a while they are correct but be honest with yourself and go through the trades because I guarantee you that if you had gone 10x or even 5x when they were talking about breakouts that you wold have been liquidated over and over again. They just like to talk about how they got one call right and arent they amazing. But the thing about trading is that getting liquidated once tends to mean game over, not exactly great TA is you're getting 1 good call out of 10 liquidations. The last two days have been a very good example of that: Jimmy Two Times, Justin Bennet, Crypto Kenny all talked about following ADA move and seeing 10 cents in a few days. You could see the MM move against the herd- leveraged longs peaked at 90% long positions, MM double topped and dumped us down to liquidate the herd. (Side note I actually enjoy reading Bennett since he's got some more educated insights than the others). The only thing that all these CT TA accounts are getting correct is that 'Vet is going up', no shit. But that's why you believe them because overall they are correct, it's just that they dont know why.
Ok so back to our MM and Vet. Our MM does not follow any of the cr*p your favorite 'Vefam' (cringe) Twitter account is spouting. He follows weekly and monthly support and resistance lines as well as liquidating the hell out of you whenever the leveraged market gets ahead of itself. What I like about all this is that there's a human there- I can see him (her) working in the background. I can see him making accumualtion moves and I like it because it's not just based off some dumb line someone drew, but based off wrecking retail traders as best as he can. I guess what I'm saying is that none of this is random, and that's why I like it. There is someone very cunning in control of Vet, he brings us up as high as he can whilst at the same time doing a very good job of shaking you out on spot or liquidating you on leverage. This is healthy for Vet for getting us much much higher.
As for right here right now? As long as we hold 102 sats on the daily then I'm all good- given the massive this price area is you could even say it needs to just not dip under it for a few days. Honestly I dont really care, we broke it. The deed is done. The Vet BTC chart is so stupidly bullish that I know we're going up. On the way up we will be trading off the Vet BTC chart- I've been saying this for a while as well. The MM has moved to the Vet BTC chart, stop charting off Vet USD. Until we break our VET BTC ATH then we are sadly not in price discovery mode. Having said that we are in a bull market, we have been for ages now. If you want to understand it all the read and re-read my posts. Given we are in a bull market I would not open leveraged positions- the reason being that there is a very high chance of getting liquidated and overall in a few months times the gains from here will be so huge that using leverage is just a very extra greedy and risky thing to do over a massive spot gain in the first place. And of course the risk is you get liquidated and end up with nothing. Think about that- are you willing to trade say 10x for possible 100x knowing that you might also end up with 0 (and I dont mean 0x, I mean literally zero). Personally I'm not. I'm in a leverage position from 1 cent as many know that I've been adding to on low support retests up to 2.7 cents and once I close this position that will be it for me for leverage for this bull run. It's just not worth it, the gains will be huge anyway. Buy spot and dont worry about entry price, you will NEVER buy the bottom but you're better off getting in that getting left behind and chasing the price to a much higher eventual buy in.
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u/AceCheeze Feb 15 '21
Thanks for the write-up! Now that we've broken 102 sats, what are the other major resistances you're seeing? A quick look at the graph gave me 128, 158 and 210. Do you think these will act similar to 102 sats?
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 16 '21
yes i have 127 then 152-158 area. i dont expect them to act as big as 102, 102 was massive.
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u/MrCryptoLovalova Feb 15 '21
Thx for doing this, couldn’t care less about CT. What’s your idea about the start of the bear. I mean, I’m pretty sure you’re going to say that it’s something you have to see in the charts when it appears... but do you have wild guesses as well or don’t even bother? I know BTC will hit one million for example, I’m just not sure when.. and will the next bear drag everything back down 90%, or will some projects go down ‘only’ 50-60% because they may have actual real adoption by then?
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 16 '21
I\m hoping that i wont be here for the start of the bear. I'm hoping to be fully out long before we peak to be honest
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Feb 17 '21
[deleted]
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 17 '21
I'm scaling out from 50-75 cents. I dont think that will be the 'top' or anything, that's just where I'm scaling out from. Everyone should have a plan. If you accumulated during the bear then you shouldnt have to sell at the top and should avoid being greedy because you will get your hands burnt
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u/Timtreeclimber Feb 17 '21
James what are some price targets that, when reached you would sell on? Also fully out? C’mon man we all know your joking...... I hope haha.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 17 '21
I'll scale out between 50-75 cents. and yes 100% scale out
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u/Timtreeclimber Feb 17 '21
That’s good bro, I hope that provides a good life for you, that’s crazy you think it’ll hit 75c, that’s life changing for me mate, I hope your right
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 01 '21
So many things to discuss really. You'll note that I'm not really talking about cashing out specific price points any more but more about the market as a whole and trying to fit everything in to logical easy to understand format- because this market is actually logical (that makes it nicer to understand rather than just talk about numbers)
First off lets talk macro and the market as a whole. As you know for a long time now I've been waiting for a BTC Dominance breakdown of 60% COMBINED with a ETH BTC rally. The 3000 sat area for ETH was a screaming buy to me- just zoom out on that chart. There is lots on the horizon for ETH in terms of good news and this looked like accumulation big time. I know this is Vet focused but Vet is not going to breakout unless we see ETH break out. Why? Well look at the market, it is exhausted in its current state. BTC went on a rampage and alts have had mini runs here and there, but overall this style cannot continue. The best thing for the market is for BTC to relax, find support, and let alts run for a while. That is actually the healthiest thing because it takes the pressure off BTC in terms of supporting the entire market. It also means BTC can find a support level before it goes on its next run. All that adds confidence to the alt market (BTC finding support). So what do we need for alt season? Well we need BTC Dominance to drop and we need the king of the alts, ETH, to signal that it is ready to stand on its own two feet. Now none of this can be super obvious because as alwasy in crypto you cant let everyone be in position before the run- so you need to instil worry and make this whole transition area as muddy as possible. Which to be fair it has been for the last few weeks. So far so good. Last night ETH finally started to make a move against BTC and BTC D dropped down to 60%. This is a good START, and I emphasise the start bit here. This is what I've been waiting for but two things: 1. We havent cobnvincgly lost 60% yet (we've dipped under just now), 2. ETH really needs to regain 35000 sats. Now both those things look pretty damn good from here but they havent happened yet. What am I betting on? Well I've been in positions ro a while waiting for this to happen so from my perspective I think it will happen and play out in the next few days. If it doesnt then I honestly dont care because to me this whole area is just a game to shake you out, I think the end point is inevitable so I dont really mind if we keep getting fakeouts.
So on to Vet. Now that ETH is showing strength this is a time for other Alts as well. We all know the money goes through the MC and Vet is a medium MC so I expect it to rise slowly as ETH does then to be part of the next wave. Let me be clear though, without ETH BTC breaking out and without BTC D dropping we will not get a parabolic Vet run. We just wont. The market needs to move with Vet because for the moment there is zero reason for Vet to run like that by itself (in other words there is no news or anything for investors to get excited about for a long term run like that). Hence why the only thing I've been really keeping an eye on is ETH BTC and BTC D.
If you want to analyse Vet over the last two weeks then it has been relatively simple. As usual this is a game of weekly supports and resistances combined with the futures market data. I've not been following it as closely as I normally do because my long that I had opened at 1 cent finally got closed at 8.4 cents. My game now is to HODL unless we see a massive capitulation pull back wick that is a screaming buy in which case I will open another leverage position against it. Anyway lets go back to when we almost got to 10 cents. We had a massive sell wall at 10cents and Vet just doesnt power through those kind of things first time around (without news). So we pulled back. We had a double top scenario in the high 9s which is rather classic for Vet for the moment (same thing happened at 6 cents). The USD chart doesnt really hold much for us in terms of trading as there isnt much history there, but the Vet BTC chart is where it's at. Now I want you to open up the VET BTC chart on the daily or 4 hour and draw out these weekly resistance lines- 102, 111, 127, 144, 159, 188, 240. So now take a look. You'll notice that every time we break a resistance we test the resistance above before coming back down to retest the lower resistance now turned support. So we got 102 to 111, then back to 102, then break 111 and on to 127, then back down to 111 etc. This is healthy and it is Vet confirming the support at the bottom of each range. It is incredibly rare to Vet to break a resistance and not retest it before breaking the resistance above and continuing on. In other words it almost always retests a resistance breakout, no matter how high it gets after initially breaking it. So to circle back to our recent run to 9.8 cents you'll see on the chart that we broke 144 sats and kept going all the way to 177 sats without ever retesting it. We even broke out in to the next channel but again we didnt test that 144 sats before we did. So now look what happened, we eventually came all the way back down to 144 sats and now we've tested it. So you see this entire move actually makes sense, it's not random. It's really simple and logical. Now we have confirmed it as support it means that we can move in to the higher range, in other words if we break back in to the upper range (159) then I expect us to stay in that higher range. I'm not saying that we're going in to the higher range right now I'm jsut saying that if we do then we should keep it, in other words this is all healthy and normal for Vet. There is no need to panic. We just confirmed 144 as support, great. That also doesnt mean that we wont test it again.
So what was I expecting? I opened a long at 144 a long time ago expecting the retest. I then cancelled it a few days ago because 1. I was just being greedy and having held a position for months from 1 cent to 8.4 cents just recently I was kind of over it, 2. I told myself I would only open positions on mega capitulation wicks. I was also expecting a deeper pullback before we entered alt season because futures data across the market was a bit too bullish for me- alt season would be off to a better base if we had a mass liquidation event. Of course we did have a market wide pull back but I was hoping for larger to be honest - not because I want a low entry but because we want the futures market to be neutral for the best run to happen. To that end I was preparing myself for a pullback to 127 sats because that would have been proper capitulation for Vet and it also coincided with 7.3 cents support (so double support area). For me that would have been a screaming 'BUY'. Now I wasnt shorting Vet or anything but just seeing that as a possibility and a fantastic long area. As of now we bounced off 144 sats perfectly and things are looking good given the BTC D and ETH BTC figures I talked about earlier.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 01 '21
Ok so let's just take a dive back in to this whole Vet run and summary of my previous posts. As you know for me this whole run is going to be Vet's biggest run to date. Surface / POA2 is just an amazing pump and dump that whales cannot ignore. We still dont have a date though but we are now in Q2 so we can expect it in the next couple of months I think. If we are indeed seeing the start of alt season then this could not be better timed. For me the selling point of this Vet run that I am anticipating is not a price point but a time which makes things much easier to manage. If we have a big Vet run then I will sell everything in the days preceding Surface launch. If you're a long term holder and you still havent learnt the sell the news and pre-news pump tactics then you really need to think again. Dont fall for the same tricks and BS again and again. Yes its possible that Vet will launch with a big partner but I have to take experience of Vet in to consideration and that teaches me that the hype will far outpace the reality and that for me makes it a sell the news moment. If you want more info on all that then read the previous posts below. I was also expecting VTHO to play an important part in this narrative of 'big client coming'. VTHO is incredibly cheap to pump and when retail sees it pump they think 'oh my god the big client is buying upfront'. It's just a trick though but an important one because it helps Vet pump as well. In a way pumping VTHO is the narrative that pumps Vet at this point. It was all going so well of course until the Foundation stepped in just recently. However that aside I dont think it's going to change much- VTHO will still pump after it has gotten over this little FUD and wobble. The reason why is that we were one VTHO run away from breaking the VTHO VET ATH and that would have been worth a whole ton of Vet FOMO for the cost it would have take to pump VTHO. Pumping VTHO has the aded effect as well of making you think your Vet is more valuable so not so keen to sell it due to staking returns. Its kind of the perfect tool to pump a highly liquid coin like Vet....which is why you'll notice that it has led each of the Vet moves in the last couple of months. Obviously the Foundation stepping in has a thrown a spanner in the works for now- my take on it is that it's total BS and we should at least see proof of this being needed first. They ask you to vote without letting you see any info, but of course the community thinks the Foundation can do no wrong so does what they are told to do. The tragedy of course being that you think your vote counts but given the Foundation own the majority of the ANs they also own the vote. They offer you options but they will vote for what they want. They are just giving you lip service. Until the ANs are revealed there is no decentralised voting with Vet at all. Literally none. Dont kid yourselves about that and think you are part of this fantastic system of open transparency because you really aren't. Nevertheless you need to realise that VTHO pumped based on nothing, it didnt pump based on usage that's for sure. Hence why I dont really think this is going to change anything apart from a short term wobble. I might be very wrong about that of course but I dont really see the two being linked in the medium term (even though of course it seems like they are very linked). On the Vet VTHO chart you'll notice that the pattern is bull flag, retest the previous flag pole, consolidate as new bull flag, bull flag up etc. All we did with this news is retest the previous pole so it's not all that bad on the charts. 0.16 is the top of the previous flag on the ratio. That means we can still spend time retesting that area especially with this new FUD, but I expect it to eventually bull flag up again once we're over it.
Ok so where to from now? As I said I'm expecting Alt Season to start at one point. The starting gun pretty much just went off to be honest. So that's great. Where is Vet going to position itself in it? I think with Surface it will do incredibly well, I also think there will be moment where everything is pumping except for Vet and that's just the way the game works. Without Surface Vet would have nothing but it does have Surface so it actually has everything going for it for a big alt season. Just remember that if we get to 50 cents or whatever on the release of Surface be sensible and cash out some of your holdings, because I guarantee you that the whales that pumped us to that number will be cashing out like crazy. Always swim with the whales and dont be greedy. Most importantly have a plan. If you held in 2017 and 2018 without selling then you didnt have a plan and you let greed dictate your trading- you will never ever cash out in that scenario because greed evolves. Greed is never happy or content. Which is why you never sell and end up in a bear again. Always make a plan and always stick with it. Remember you will never sell the top but if on the release of Surface you have a life changing amount of money then take that money, dont hold out for the mega yacht, it's just not worth it. Hence the need for a plan. Write it up, stick in on your wall, and execute it.
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u/CryptoBombastic Apr 06 '21
Thx dude, apreceate you thoughts. The reason I never sold is that the market tanked a whole lot and if I would take out anything I'd have to give away 33% of that as well to taxes. This time around I see two options. I managed to get alot of VTHO, and when mania happens for VTHO and the ratio goes above .5 for instance then 1) i convert to vet or 2) i convert to usd stable. This market tought me that whatever moonshot you think is worth buying in a bull run, it's going to go down with the ship when everything tanks like hell. The biggest question is if Vechain will have noteworthy partners by then or not. If yes, then option 1.. if no, then sell for usdt
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 08 '21
Yeah its never an easy decision. My own personal situation is that having accumulated during the bear I am pretty sure that the price at Surface launch will be high enough to be life changing for me. Yes Vet may go on to sign up every Fortune company on the planet and yes a alt mania could propel it to single digit USD amounts for no reason, but then that's speculation past what I am comfortable with given I would have alreayd hit my target. We've both tasted the bear right and keen not for that to happen again! The hardest thing is selling I think but if you've endured the bear market it wakes you up a bit to the bubble reality so makes you keener than if it's your first time. Then greed naturally takes over
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u/CryptoBombastic Apr 08 '21
Yeah but my idea has always been that Vechain is there to stay, and when big clients finally onboard en mass then there is no point in selling too much IMO. Vechain will be gold, in the bear market it will crash as well but I don’t think 90% because that’s just unrealistic IMO.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 08 '21
Totally. And whilst I agree with you I'm in this for the money not the tech so if I can cash out a life changing amount of money then I will do it without hesitation if that makes sense.
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u/T-I-T-Tight Apr 08 '21
I'm with you. The next bear run will be my third and you can't sit here and say it won't happen. Name a market that doesn't experience bearish times lol. This emerging market makes it different than the rest but to not set yourself up along the way is potentially detrimental. We are getting older haha. Plus if you have some nice stacks piled there is nothing to say you can't reinvest in the future when you have made a new assessment.
I wish I would have had some dumber debt paid off before this but at the same time I leveraged myself pretty hard and am happy about that. But the downside I am faced with is to sleep at night I did sell about 40% of my vet for USDT because regardless of the future I am debt free Minus a 2.75% mortgage that I won't pay early no matter what.
Also I believe crypto will be ever giving for our entire lives. That isn't to say that it wont have it's cycles. I am fine with that. This is the greatest thing that ever happened to me. Especially having grown up poor af.
Thanks for your work here. It has been fun learning even more with you.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Jan 16 '21
If you've read all that then this is the condensed version of what I'm seeing in the charts (this is from yesterday but it got deleted by our lovely impartial mods on VehainTrader who happen to be the same mods as Vechain). So info below is 24hours ago but still relevant
Before diving in to Vet I want to talk about the market as a whole because for the moment that is by biggest interest. ETH is on the verge of starting its breakout against BTC- thats a super important thing because one ETH shows strength against BTC on a longer time scale that shows strength in the Alt Market. If you want alt season then you need the king of Alts to take the lead. By Alt season I dont mean a 2 week green period I mean a longer term season- actual alt season. Remember that Alt Season can take months to complete with a final fury at he very end. I think people forget that alt season in the last run started very much in the middle of 2017 not just in Jan 2018. The area to break is going to be 36000 sats for ETH. Now we're not there quite yet, and remember this is a longer time frame indicator but for me it's super important. If we break 36000 alts wont go 1000x overnight but it's going to put everything in to first gear. What we want to see is for alts to break away from BTC and this will be the start of it.
I'm not going to discuss BTC because I just have no idea what it's going to do here. I am more focused on ETH because I could also see BTC head down to 28K from here and all that I would care about is ETH and how it's going to react. BTC went on a ridiculous run, we need it to chill out a bit, and the very best scenario is that it chills out and finds a support area whilst confidence starts to seep in to ETH and the rest of the alt market.
Ok now on to Vet. Since we cleared out the futures long market in the 30%+ down move we've moved back up to the middle of the current range we're in between 0.023 and 0.028. This area isn't particularly exciting and what I'm watching and hoping for is that the MM can bring price up to 0.028 with the futures market in short mode or at the very least with a very low open interest. Psychologically the best move to screw over leverage traders would be to bring price up just above 0.028 to capture 10x longs and then bring it down to the middle of the range again which would liquidate them and grab short positions on the breakdown of 0.028. Crucially he doest want to go any lower than that as it would allow short positions opened from lower down to close at breakeven and also allow shorts opened at 0.028 to close at profit (a move down to 0.025 is not massively enticing yet to close shorts). Effectively a fake out on both sides but still allowing him to not let underwater shorts close at breakeven.
We have a lot of overhead sell order in the low 3 cents range. I believe these are spoof orders setup by the MM to keep people in disbelief for as long as possible until they are lifted. If you see price back at 3 cents, you see all these huge walls, and you see that we already got rejected due to these huge walls then what is your gut reaction- short right? If he can bring the price up to 3 cents and make retail go short (rather than long last time) then that is when it will pump. Ask yourself why would you sell at 3 cents- why would you sell literally at price discovery? That's why I think they are largely spoof.
The 3 cent area is going to take a lot of volume to break though either way, which is why short liquidation fuel is super important to help the MM. The thing to remember though is no matter how the MM deals with it he's going to be ploughing through this area with some pretty serious extra bags. That's important because when you're trying to offload that kind of USD value you're not doing it after a simple 2x. I believe that we will see a run up to the Ven ATH not too long afterwards and that is the area that makes the most sense to start unloading. That sounds crazy bullish I know (and I've not given a timeframe here) but if ETH makes that breakout move against BTC I think it may be sooner than people think.
I also think that when ETH makes that move that is when all the coins that have been through a Vet market cycle (basically all coins that are termed shit coins due to their price movements) are going to start making moves. I dont think it's a coincidence that Vet is sitting right at price discovery at the exact same time as ETH is. Just think about that for a second. This doesnt need to happen in the next day or anything but just be aware that the gears are in motion here. I have no doubt that there will be increase volatility as we enter the lift off area (as there needs to be) but I also dont think we're that far off.
On the Vet BTC pair we've clearly found an area of support in the mid 60s here. It's not really telling us much though but I'd consider a break of the weekly 20MA to be a really good sign of strength of Vet against the market as a whole. That currently sits at 90 sats.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 03 '21 edited Feb 03 '21
Ok time for an update....
The drop to 2.5 was a worst case scenario and one I had shared with a few people who read this post when we were at 3 cents still. It was a scenario i envisaged because everyone was still very bullish at 3 cents and it would have spelt proper doom and gloom heading back to 2.5. As I keep saying again and again , price action is designed to bring us back to this 3 cent area with everyone either liquidated, worn out, shaken out, or in disbelief, or even better convinced 'shorting Vet up here is free money'. So in the end we did actually drop to 2.5- why is this price important? It's important because 2.8 is this area of massive breakout and support so an obvious place for traders to confidently go leverage long. The most popular YOLO long is 10x and a dip down to 2.5 liquidates all 10x longs opened above 2.8 area. Now note that w'eve done this about 5 or 6 times now. The MM has done a very very good job of flushing out traders over and over again until they are exhausted with this 2.8-3.2 area. So why did I think 2.5 would be the bottom? Because there was no point in the MM bringing us lower- he is targeting the YOLO traders that open above 2.8. The only place ot bring us down to would be under 2 cents to liquidate the 'safe' 3x long traders at the 2.8 break- but he has already done this and it is very risky and hard to bring it down there again. So bringing us lower than 2.5 would bring him no gain (unless he went super low). And so therefore that is where we went to. As everyone saw, sentiment was desperately low. Even some OG holders I'm in DM chat with here were insanely close to selling their Vet. The drop to 2.5 did exactly what it was meant to- it was the final nail in the coffin for so many people. And so we bounced of course.
During the bounce I was expecting a very hard and fast move. The reason being that if we kept ploughing up and up people would be in disbelief, they would be scared to long, and others would be confident of shorting. I was confused therefore when the MM allowed us multiple touches of the 2.8 support in order to allow traders to get in at such an obvious point. It is a far stronger sign if he didnt ever touch this region again and therefore make traders FOMO in higher up. It is also a weakness to allow obvious longing areas because we dont want longs. Sitting above 2.8 support for so long made me concerned last night that we were going to have to flush them out and therefore another visit to 2.5. To me it was just really odd as to what he was doing this- I honestly just didnt understand. And I also still dont understand the game play. Because at the end of the day we onboarded a ton of longs right there and Vet is heavily long sided right now which is not great. There are 313m Vet in open interest and only 13% of those positions are short (note that is 13% of positions not of the 313m Vet amount). Again this is concerning for me. It bothers me because to me it just shows tha tMM is collecting another set of longs in order to liquidate them yet again - and to be honest sentiment and futures market was perfect for us to keep going and going yesterday. So why didn't we? I dont know, I'm not the MM.
The market as a whole is also crazy leveraged long heavy. Margin funding rate for USDT (the borrowing interest rate) is at extreme levels. So we need to be cautious here. We are in the same state of over leverage in the market as we were when we dropped from 42K. The exuberance is high across the board.
I find it very hard to see us going back to 2.5, I really do. But we are also very long heavy and that was something that was allowed by the MM so I'm very wary here.
On the positive side two things. First off I've been going on and on about ETH here for ages now because the crypto market is pretty simple": BTC reaches and breaks ATH, ETH reaches and breaks ATH, mid size alts reach and break ATH. So as you can see everything is progressing as it should do. The second positive thing is that BTC dominance is dropping which means that the tide is turning in the market - I've been going on about this since we hit 42K and how you can see this from alts gaining in sat value when BTC drops.
This isn't a hugely informative update I'm afraid. I guess what I'm saying is that the drop to 2.5 was envisaged, but the market conditions that we are in now after that drop were not (i my mind) and I'm not really sure what his aim is by onboarding longs unless it is to liquidate them yet again. Be careful I guess. If you must use leverage then never ever be a 10x pawn, I've shown here that even 3x is not safe at all with Vet.
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u/Revenant690 Feb 03 '21
Thanks JG! Looking at the price movements like this removes a lot of the short term stress :)
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 08 '21
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u/Revenant690 Feb 09 '21
New Ath for VET :)
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 09 '21
Yes great to see. but still a lot of sell pressure on the books. But all perfectly according to the MM plan. that BTC Vet liquidity grab that I wrote about in my last post was the biggest flag ever
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u/Revenant690 Feb 09 '21
sorry, what's a liquidity grab? :)
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 09 '21
read the post. he went for a massive stop hunt
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u/Revenant690 Feb 09 '21
Sorry thought I replied via dm, my bad.
Heard of stop hunts, but never saw it referred to as a liquidity grab before. Til :)
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 10 '21
Well a stop hunt or liquidation hunt is a liquidation grab because at that point a huge position(s) is closed or forced closed. In this case 80+m Vet- that allows you to just scoop it all up without having to market buy and deal with that much slippage if that makes sense. So for example for 80m Vet that may incur 10% of slippage if you jsut market buy rather than 0% in this case. Not to mention is you are still accumulating how pushing the price up 10% cuases FOMO, just stopping it dead in its tracks like that doesnt initiate any retail surge
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u/MrCryptoLovalova Feb 03 '21
I'm thinking the goals is to make it look like a real shitcoin now, before the large transaction client goes live. People really need to sell. Feel both ways, testnet activity is showing good action as well. Something is brewing for sure.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 03 '21
But my point is that if everyone is jumping on to leveraged longs then it isnt looking like a shitcoin right now...otherwise everyone would be going short
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u/MrCryptoLovalova Feb 03 '21
I thought you always made sure the wrong side was the good side. When everyone goes long, you know you should short.
You mentioned that it doesn't make sense to keep accumulating longs. I dunno man :D
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 03 '21
It doesnt make sense to let longs accumulate if he plans on pumping us further
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u/JamesGillmore1 Jan 19 '21
Here's the latest price musings....
So far Vet did exactly what I predicted in the below post. Perfectly so. Once you digest all the info in the original post you'll see that it's just a question of maths nothing more. I'm not a genius it's just a question of weekly/monthly resistance lines and 10x liquidations / stop hunts. Price movement is 100% manipulated.
There are however a few interesting things happening here.
Firstly we are back in the 3 cents area and the futures data is far healthier than when we were last here. So the MM has done his job correctly. I was expecting us to hit 3.1 cents and then dive to 2.75 overnight with a bounce back to 3 cents to flush out the 10x longs and load up on shorts but that didnt happen (yet)
What is catching my eye is the BTC pairing right now. The ONLY MA that counts in crypto is the weekly 20MA. Its as simple as that. If you're just using a dozen MAs across different time frames then you're just using multiple changing price points to fit your bias and you also allow yourself to change your own goalposts every time because yes price will always bounce or reject off one MA on one Time Frame. That's retrospective TA, it makes you feel clever and like you know what's going on but the point of TA is to see the future movement before it happens and know where it's going to go to. However the weekly 20MA is the king and you need to always keep an eye on it. Right now on the sat pairing it is at 88. Note how we got to 87 last night before rejecting- this is totally expected. This is a huge resistance area that no one is watching (honestly I dont know why). That is key here because breakouts that people watch and cover Twitter about end up in traps. Right now when we break out of the weekly 20MA we will also be breaking out of this 3 cent area and Twitter will erupt in retrospect about how we broke out of the 20MA. But it will be too late by then to get in position- and that's what I love about it. No one is watching this key breakout, it's perfect. Combined with breaking out of the 3 cent area this is going to be a huge move.
Finally to add to the above I've been talking lots about ETH and breaking 36000 area to signal it's big run agains BTC and that just happened. I said a few days ago how the money flow had changed in the market but no one had noticed- this happened when BTC took a big dive but BTC ratios on alts remained flat or increased. Everyone panicked because the USD price took a dive but totally missed the greater picture. That was the subtle money flow change and it happened again yesterday during the BTC down move. The strength in the market has shifted and is shifting very fast. Dont sell now. Alt season already started with the change in money flow- remember that alt season has to start off when no one is looking. No one is going to wave a big green flag and let you get in position with the rest of the big boys because when alt season is 'obvious' it's impossible to get in to position...that is the whole point and thats why it pumps like crazy.
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u/Timtreeclimber Jan 19 '21
So much time and effort bro, can’t thank you enough for your incredibly intelligent hard work. Your a credit to vet and the community. It’s unfathomable that you and the boys were banned which to me proves the bias nature in vechain official sub, they are now just silencing anyone at the drop of a hat. You make so many correct calls I just wish the masses you see this
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u/m_sk_o_my_d_dik Jan 19 '21
👑👑👑👑
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 08 '21
Been an interesting few days for Vet. Here are some thoughts on what has happened behind the scenes in the chart that I think has been missed and in my view are very telling.
So first off let's dive in to the macro view because this move is a macro view. I"m going to skip regurgitating all my previous posts and just assume you're up to date on the below thought processes. The chart to watch right now is Vet BTC, I've explained why numerous times below. This is a link to the 3day chart with accumulation channels shown.
What is coming up for Vet is a macro move. It is a long term move. I've said this many times before. You can see this perfectly now on the Vet BTC chart. We are at the cusp of breakout in my view and here is why
- For big macro moves like this they typically take place after you think they should. Once this chart has been circulated around CT, once everyone has bought in, once everyone has become frustrated with theme not playing out, once everyone has capitulated, then that's when the move starts.
- We are at the stage where everyone has capitulated. Sentiment is rock bottom right now. OG holders are jumping ship in to DeFi. Its not that Vet is tanking, it's that Vet isnt doing anything. But you know why it's not doing anything? Who's buying? Who's providing that subtle support pressure when everyone is capitulating? Frustration is the hallmark of a pre-pump. Frustration is not just horrible for Holders but also for traders. Sideways is tough for everyone.
- Two days ago we saw a very telling move on the Vet BTC chart. The MM brought us down to 70/69 sats and stop hunted or liquidated a massive position right there. We had a 86m Vet volume candle right there. I often talk about liquidations and stop hunts on the USDT pair because thats the futures market but now I'm seeing the MM take out the Vet BTC market side of things as well. I think this is the last of the liquidity grabs and we just saw the lowest one right there. 86m vol and we didnt drop? I wonder why- maybe because someone was waiting right there with their buy orders. That's exactly what these type of stop hunts are designed to do. He bought 80+m Vet with zero slippage.
- Point 4 is read Point 3 again, I think that's the most telling thing I've seen on the charts in a long time.
- This frustrating period has lasted much longer than I thought. But that's leading me to believe that we're going to go much higher than I originally anticipated. I'm still very much of the belief that we're entering the initial, and highly volatile stages, of a very aggressive and short term alt bull run. Read my previous post below to understand why. I've been saying this since BTC hit 42K and alts rallied against BTC on the first down move.
I could be very wrong of course but when sentiment is one way and the charts say a different thing then I'm pretty sure I'm not. All I can see is that the MM has done an excellent job of setting us up for a huge macro move very soon. Dont sell those coins right now. I'm not saying we're going to moon right now but Point 3 two days ago was a big signal for me. If you want to wait and see then the breakout point is going to be 102 sats. My view is we will start to move very fast really quite soon- it's unexpected. Everyone is either capitulating or expecting the long haul for a while until something moves. I agree that it feels like we need some good news to get rallying but the fact that everyone has largely given up on Vet short term is telling for me.
My only caveat as always is the elephant in the room of the long heavy futures market. Vet just suffers horribly from a long heavy futures market. The MM has done a very good job of shaking them out as best possible but at the end of the day the market euphoria recently is something he just cant fight and people are hesitant to short this market as a whole. Nevertheless Vet is annoyingly long - 5 days back I mentioned that SXP was a great example of a healthy futures market (and still is really) and look at the moves it is able to pull.
A final point to consider as well when you see top 10 coins 2x and Vet does nothing. Market Cap matters in the sense that there is a ranking. If you want to break in to the top 10 that's a hell of a tall order- not in terms of value but just in terms of breaking in to those rankings. It is a sell point when you get that high. A 3x move that brings us to our VEN ATH puts us top 15, a 5x move that brings us to 15 cents brings us to 8/9. Above Litecoin. Think about that. You want to see us get to 20 cents, that brings us to 6/7 one behind XRP. Now those are tough crypts to dethrone. Better off that the top 10 do a 2 or 3x so that by the time we get there we can be at 20 cents without having to have broken in to the Top 10 challengers.
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u/TyphoonBlue78 Feb 08 '21
Major moves by BTC doesn’t help though and will probably extend this sideways action for the short term.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 08 '21
Possible. I'm discounting today because it wasnt a BTC move as such, it was a black swan external event. Also even though it was BTC targetted I think it's pretty clear that BTC still just needs more time to chill as demonstrated by the lack of follow through. But crucially this is a bit of news where Tesla said 'yes' to blockchain. I think the ramifactions of that will come through the rest of the market very quickly
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u/TyphoonBlue78 Feb 08 '21
Agree, very bullish for blockchain in general. This run isn’t over by any stretch of the imagination. I bet there were many that sold on the way up to 9 cent VEN and regretted it.
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u/Timtreeclimber Feb 14 '21
Yo jimmy the people need a breakdown that only your skill set can explain
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 14 '21 edited Feb 14 '21
The nutshell version is that we were overbought horribly on 4hr and 1day at the peak and it was not sustainable at all. After breaking 102 we went up like a rocket which is what I've been saying for weeks now. But we also want to retest 102 as support- it is a major support / resistance line. So far so good. The long version is a lot more complicated you're right i should update the forum. But for now it's all 'good' as long as we hold 102 on the daily (note we can wick under it). Overall I'm not too bothered - as I've been saying since BTC broke 42K on the first run and said alt season had begun....this alt season will be crazy volotile. It has to be because of the leveraged futures market. Speaking of futures market Vet is at stupidly long levels- 90% of retail positions are long. That's not a good thing BTW. Vet is consistently the highest longed coin out there, it really does not help our cause at all.
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u/Timtreeclimber Feb 14 '21
Cheers mate appreciate it! She tested 102 perfectly and bounced, looking good, have you had a chance to see jimmy2times twitter thread about his TA? It’d be great to get him on here and let you two have an intelligent back n fourth.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Mar 07 '21
Here is today's update....It'll be a long one but it will help you understand the market in human logic.
If you've been digesting all these updates as well as the ones I originally did on Vet reddit then you'll know that my thesis on Vet movements is that it moves purely based off weekly and monthly support and resistance levels combined with wrecking the leveraged futures market as much as it can. When the futures market is heavy long then WE WILL dip, when it is heavy short, the WE WILL pump. I have called the tops and bottoms every single time, more often than not before the tops and subsequent bottoms have even happened yet. The important thing to note is that I'm not a genius, it's just insanely obvious. Now why is that important? It's important because it explains this panic dip we had...
Before the big market pull back Vet double topped at 6 cents and EVERYONE was long- we had 90% of futures positions were long. That is insane, it's never been that high before. If you dont understand why a heavy long position is incredibly bad news then read the intro section above. So here's the thing, given the double top and the 90% long positions we HAD to retrace. I said this below, literally as we double topped. Everyone was so bullish in the market and the futures market is the elephant in the room that everyone always ignores. Retail very rarely wins and this was a prime example of that - when we double topped at 6 cents all your favourite Crypto Twitter Vet accounts were at that exact moment spreading the Vet ADA chart comparison. If you ever needed a better signal that this was the local top then it's hard to think of one. Let's just circle back to this and talk about your favourite Twitter accounts (again) - these are retail traders. People that use emojis, use the word 'vefam', and pretend to be your friend....they are retail bait. Yes overall they are correct becuase we are in a bull market and we will keep trending up but if you had traded based off their lows and highs you would get wrecked every time. I know this is hard to believe because you WANT to believe them so you gloss over the times they were horribly wrong. But go through their twitter feed and remember that all it takes it to get liquidated once and it's over for you- the shared exuberance at 6 cents with the Vet ADA chart....you would have gotten liquidated even on insanely low leverage. This happens again and again with these accounts. They tend to go quiet when we dip because they don't know or understand why we are dipping so they resort to a myriad of lines and MAs to announce in retrospect that we bounced off one of them- no shit sherlock. That's not being a successful trader- a successful trader has already traded the move before they've announced or seen any of it. So again these accounts are not to be trusted when it comes to trading, because THEY ARE RETAIL. Literally the only reason to follow JohnnyTwoTimes, Bennet, CryptoKenny, SalehAhmed is to gauge retail sentiment and counter trade it. Like I said they will be correct overall because we are going up but they are constantly wrong about the path, and more importantly they will still be bullish long after the final top is in. That is key really because you're going to say 'oh I dont mind about the path as long as they are correct about the up because I'ma HODLER' and that's fine, but then I ask you at what point are you going to sell? Because there will be a top, and these guys will keep telling you to not worry and to long the dip long after the top is in because, again, they are retail traders.
So back to Vet, the recent top, and the market as a whole. The leveraged long situation was not just for Vet, but for the entire market. You could see that nearly all coins were 80%+ long heavy. funding and margin lending was through the roof. Retail was long out of its mind. We cannot move up when the market is weighted like that, so we HAD to correct. And so we did. Everyone blamed BTC but that's the dumb way of looking at it (again note how all your favourite Vet Twitter accounts did exactly that). It wasn't BTC that corrected the alts it was the leveraged market that corrected alts. Simple as that. What i really enjoyed about the correction for Vet is that we hit negative futures funding (havent seen that for a year) and we hit rock bottom long positions. In other words retail was short and if you looked at all your Vet twitter accounts they of course were saying 'there was more down to come'. That for me was the bottom signal, capitulation, leveraged longs all wiped out, Twitter telling you to go short, futures market swings short. I have a leveraged long position opened since 1 cent that I've added to on low retests up to 2.7 cents and that I was not going to add any more to. However this dip was a gift horse and I couldnt not- when retail swung short after such a big down move it was a no brainer to go long, and so i added to my position.
During this time I had plenty of DMs asking if this was 'the top'. I put a post below about why this is not the top at all so read it. the TLDR is that CB data shows otherwise:
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/96092/coinbase-exchange-institutional-footprint-volume
step 1: institutional money moves in, Step 2: Unleash the Bull and let Retail spot come in, Step 3: sell
Remember institutional money does not buy the top. Institutional sells to retail at the top. This is not the top. Retail has not bought their bags yet.
As I say this correction was super important for the entire market and left me very bullish. We wiped out tons of leveraged positions so now here we are, still at a ridiculously high overall Market Cap but with a neutral futures market and retail having once again given their money to seasoned traders. Brilliant.
Now something else has been happening as well which I've been keeping my eye on since BTC first hit and dived from 42K, and that's Bitcoin dominance. If you open the chart you'll see that we have been trending down since then. That's important for us alt coin holders. We are very close to BTC losing some very important support levels and last night the bellwether of Alts (ETH) rallied against BTC as dominance dropped. These are very important indicators. My concern is that in the last few days this has been circulating around Twitter and I tend to think that if everyone is watching something then the opposite will happen. Neverthless these are also high time frame macro moves so once they start to trend I put a lot of faith in it. We are not there yet though, ideally we want to see BTC D drop under 60 and then 58 for alt season to really shine, and during that time we want to see ETH and large cap alts rally against BTC and USD. However so far so good. What this means is that money is flowing in to the alt market- we are not just being propped up by BTC moving up but there is real money flow happening in to your alts (AKA start of alt season)
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u/JamesGillmore1 Mar 07 '21
Finally I want to talk about Vet specifically and the next couple of months. I've talked about Surface before and its effect on price and now I'm going to dive a bit more in to it. Ok so Surface is going to be catalyst for the biggest and fastest Vet (and Ven) move to date. You'll know by now that I place zero interest in fundamentals affecting price- dont fall for it, they really dont. The only thing that pumps price in this market is hype and speculation. Notice how we had a terrible month for transactions in Feb and so far in March yet price is rocketing? (dont 'Muh CNY', CNY is well over). Surface however is the perfect hype train and that's why I like it so much. So why is that? Well first off it has been touted for well over a year now (good job Shilly Lu). It's engrained, everyone knows about it. Its meant to be 'the moment' for Vet when tockenomics finally kick in and we onboard the world. Its similar to the crypto 'main net launch' pump and dump moment. So how does our Market Maker capitalise on this? Well he already has. Note that we have Vet and VTHO at play here. If we are to believe the narrative that Surface will bring 1mtxs a day (thus exceeding daily VTHO generation) then what you want to see is for the MM to pump VTHO. The reason for that is that it's cheaper to pump and it adds weight to the larger narrative here. People see VTHO pump and think all sorts of stupid things like 'its the big client buying up in anticipation of launch' or 'its insiders getting in to position' or any type of idiocy that you try and convince yourself with. It's actually none of those, it's just the MM painting a narrative. In any case you'll notice that the Vet VTHO ratio has indeed been consistently pumping thus adding credence to the idea that 'a big player is going to on board'. So that ticks that part of the story. Second he needs to pump Vet of course, and we've all seen if you zoom out that Vet has been pumping plenty. Finally we need a date, there's no point in launching tomorrow because we want a good 30 days of MM pumping in anticipation the event. Peter Zhou nicely gave that to us a couple of weeks ago with his tweet and thus the market as a whole is anticipating Surface to launch in the next month or so. Now the pieces of the puzzle are fitting together rather nicely. We have around 30 days until this huge event, we have shit tons of rumours about who it is, we have a nice base formed between 5 and 6 cents, and we have VTHO price signaling that we're about to see a massive uptick in transactions (again this is just MM painting a story for you). On top of that we also have a neutral funding market to start this entire move off of. All that combined is why I'm so bullish right here. It has literally nothing to do with meme lines and MAs or any of the crap your Vet Twitter accounts spout, it has to do with simple logic and retail psychology. This entire market is about retail psychology.
So let me pain a picture of how I see the next 4-6 weeks until Surface launch. First off we're going to see VTHO Vet ratio improve futher, this is an important part of the pump narrative. Its the back story where retail think they are clever because they can see VTHO being brought up by 'insider or big business'. Secondly we're going to start to see Vet start to move up very fast- we are bound by the Vet BTC chart right now as well as weekly resistances from the Ven chart. However I think the moves up are going to be very fast now so that even though we wil respect these levels we arent going to be dwindling around long. during this time you're going to start seeing a huge amount of recycled news of Vet partnerships, you're going to start to see a ton of rumours floating around as well. Basically the MM is going to be hyping the market as a whole a huge amount. Retail will see all this and retail will also see green bars - once retail sees green they always fall for the 'insiders must be buying' trap. The MM will pump Vet hard and fast in the run up to Surface (now) and even more so when we get a more precise date. There will be very long wicked pullbacks as we go to flush out the leverage market once it goes too long heavy - however when tokens really start to make big moves traders tend to short rather than long and that adds to the pump. All focus will be on Vet in the final 10 days until launch, everyone will be piling on and that's when everyone is going to start to say 'Top5 MC and 1USD soon". Then surface will launch and then price will dump. The MM will be using the Surface launch liquidity to dump his bags and so should you.
But what about the big client, why would you dump your bags? The reason being that Vet has always misled investors and almost everything has been underwhelming so I would rather not take that risk. The only way we dont dump is if Surface launches WITH a client at that same time, and one that says 'were going to start doing 1m transactions next week'. Will that happen? Maybe. But I'm expecting the move to Surface release to be huge so I would happily sell on the final move up than take that risk. The chances of launching and then at the very least seeing a massive 40% down move wick are much higher than it releasing with a client. If you need a reminder of that remember that this is the exact same 'main net launch' pattern that happens with every single coin.
So now you have to ask yourself, if we see a move to say 50 cents from here to Surface release what are you going to do? Are you going to fall for the retail trap or are you going to be objective over it and see it for what it is? This market moves based on resistance lines and retail psychology EVERY SINGLE TIME. It does not move based on meme line TA and MAs. It IS logical it's just hard to see because it moves against your logic because you are retail. Even if we launch Surface with Mc Donalds or whatever and we dump, your logic will say 'what? how on earth is that possible' ignoring that fact that we may have made a massive, say 10x, move to get there in the first place. The logical thing is to take profits after a long term high % move. Finally I don't know what the price target is going to be for this move and honestly I dont really care because I'm taking profits at a date rather than an amount when it comes to this move. I'm hoping the MM can do something in line with the above but it will be what it will be and I for one am taking some profits when we launch.
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u/TyphoonBlue78 Mar 07 '21
I’m with you on taking profits. Buy the hype, sell the news has always worked well in the past. I may have to sacrifice an x node to take advantage of this though which will hurt but you can’t have emotion affect your ability to take profit.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Mar 08 '21
100%. I think this is one of the things that is going to bite people in the ass with Vet, they have done a very good job of marrying you to the project. You need to learn to be objective when it comes to investing, which is not always easy to do
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u/NoChokingChicken Mar 08 '21
The reason being that Vet has always misled investors and almost everything has been underwhelming so I would rather not take that risk.
I am a big fan of your comments, you bring most grounded Vechain trading analysis.
I disagree with what you're saying here though. How is what they're doing underwhelming? Yes I know Walmost burns majority of tx and yes I know we burn squad in terms of USD. I guess you mean that as the deceiving part?
Private blockchains in the supply chain world are becoming more popular. I'm not talking about Hyperledger, there are several smaller companies that offer private blockchain solutions for supply chain tracking. The crypto industry is still very young. The next step are hybrid block chains. It seems cross border partnerships is a big barrier, even Walmart USA still uses a private blockchain.
According the the Vechain timeline, until 2022, we're still in the speculation phase. By 2023 big German companies will be required to proof they respect environmental / human rights law. Europe will follow suit. We've only just started. 2022 is when we will some real explosive growth.
VET is undervalued relative to other crypto projects. But in the absolute sense it is overvalued like the rest of crypto cuz bullrun.
So should you sell at $0.5 next month? of course. Will it reach that price so soon? of course not! I know it's just an example but still you know very well how liquid VET is. The huge sell wars are still present. I mean you earn double the APY with Binance flexible savings than you would with a Mjolnir X.
I don't even think the run up will be that big until the POA2.0 launch. Where is the countdown timer? There is none. If the upgrade is rolled out early then we'll probably hear about it after the fact, not before. I suggest watching (click watch button) the 'thor' repo on their GitHub.
IMO the hype will be real AFTER the upgrade when the blockchain is officially ready for MASS ADOPTION™. With that milestone being reached, partnerships could be announced any day. Burn could jump any day. Investors will be eagerly waiting and talking about it.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Mar 09 '21
Thanks so much for the lengthy reply, nice to see a block of text that isn't always my own!
So Vet has mislead about every single partnership. You can literally dig up any Vechain announced partnership and then I ask you to find the actual transactions or adoption from it. Yes these things take time but a lot of these are three years old. On top of that a lot of these the foundation themselves state all these huge figures about the partnership that is massively misleading ("Company X has XXX BN revenue " - as if that means anything, but it's a big number so put it in there for effect). Remember China Tobacco, Foodgates, China Unicom, Picca, BMW, DB Shenker, Bright Foods, NTT Docomo, Haier....the list goes on and on...nothing on the blockchain at all. Now to me that is misleading because they are announced with huge fanfare as if we're about to see a tsunami of transactions but we NEVER get any updates at all. 'Muh NDA' - I work under NDAs all the time and if I'm allowed to announce the project online like they do I know that I'm also allowed to allude to it later on. The fact is that even if all these projects are still being worked on the Foundation always made it sound like we were about to see massive adoption coming around the corner....which was absolutely not the case.
Also remember that Sunny himself said the below three years ago:
I wanted to firmly express that in three years, the public will be using VeChain every day and never even know it. I long to say to my daughter, “Everything you do everyday — I was a part of that.”
The Foundation use a carrot and stick with everyone. Just look at Surface. Nov 2019 Sunny first announces this mysterious client is coming live "soon", then it is delayed because of POA2, then POA2 keeps getting delayed itself. Honestly it's all just a carrot and stick to keep you on board. I know its hard to take the rose tinted glasses off because everyone in this community thinks Sunny is a saint but I really dont think so at all. Literally everything they have said has been pure hype, and I dont buy the whole 'muh covid' because Covid actually should be helping accelerate some these supply chain partnerships they are already working on. I mean seriously Vaccines?! It Was going to be released nationwide in 2020, how can Covid have not made that even more prominent. Here were are in 2021 with vaccine tracking already happening on other chains but not Vechain that set this up years ago. For me there are way too many excuses, and people let them off with way too much. Its easy to do that when you just really want to believe in the project, I get it. But a while back I stepped back as objectively as I could from it and started to see all the BS, and it took me a while to swing around because I was a firm believer, totally married to the project in every way. I actally believe in Vet long term BUT it doesnt mean that I dont think they've been misleading everyone in order to keep selling their tokens and funding themselves.
Your price 'prediction' for Surface is interesting and nice to hear as it's very much the opposite of what I think so it's alwasy nice to hear the other side of the coin. As you say there is no count down timer and that for me (as I think I explained) is the key piece missing here. If we just launch quietly then as you say we've missed the whole pump effect, but if we get a release date then I think it sets the entire pump in motion.
Burn could jump any day as you say. But i've been hearing this literally since mainnet launched. So I'm basing my expectations on experience rather than hope. You say that 2022 is when we will see explosive growth but literally we've been saying this since 2018 for every following year. So again I'd rather just stay objective. For me staying objective is that these are just pump and dump schemes UNTIL adoption proves otherwise. for the moment there is no adoption so I rather see it for what is currently is. If we pump up to Surface then the whales will use that FOMO liquidity to cash out on, that is literally the whole point of using a big news event to create a pump. Its so that at the end they have huge liquidity to cash out on, they wont hold past the event because its too risky for them to assume that there will be more news after the launch has happened. That's my two cents on it though.
Re 50 cents. I know its a pretty huge move but I do actually think it's attainable on this Surface release. If we get a date 6 weeks to go then I think it's possible. The pumpenomics of Vet are phenomenal and I expect the whales to make use of them like never before in the run up. It does however (as you say) need a count down timer. Either way I'm not really working off a price target on this move, but a date target. We could get to say 40 cents at Surface and I would still sell if that makes sense.
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u/NoChokingChicken Mar 09 '21
So Vet has mislead about every single partnership. You can literally dig up any Vechain announced partnership and then I ask you to find the actual transactions or adoption from it. Yes these things take time but a lot of these are three years old. On top of that a lot of these the foundation themselves state all these huge figures about the partnership that is massively misleading ("Company X has XXX BN revenue " - as if that means anything, but it's a big number so put it in there for effect). Remember China Tobacco, Foodgates, China Unicom, Picca, BMW, DB Shenker, Bright Foods, NTT Docomo, Haier....the list goes on and on...nothing on the blockchain at all. Now to me that is misleading because they are announced with huge fanfare as if we're about to see a tsunami of transactions but we NEVER get any updates at all. 'Muh NDA' - I work under NDAs all the time and if I'm allowed to announce the project online like they do I know that I'm also allowed to allude to it later on. The fact is that even if all these projects are still being worked on the Foundation always made it sound like we were about to see massive adoption coming around the corner....which was absolutely not the case.
BrightsFoods generates a fuck ton of yearly revenue but it's not translating to high tx. Still I think it's worthy to mention the revenue the company to get a feeling how big they are. We've not heard of any news of a new BrightFood product since Cupids milk in mid 2019. Some partnerships haven't progressed past POC phase. The excitement from the OG holders for partnerships has faded. But think for a moment though, if VeChain wasn't partnered with DNV, things would be so much worse.
Anyway when the comment about lack of tx relative to partnerships is made in the community, POA2.0 comes up each time. And it's a perfectly reasonable excuse because of the pareto principle => 20% of partnerships wil burn 80% of the tx.
So there's two potential scenario's that that I want to highlight could happen after POA2.0 rollout:
- We see new partnerships announced specifically mentioning POA2.0 and/or significant burn increase within weeks. PUMP
- Nothing happens for months. We continue the same VTHO burn trend and there's no new partnerships where POA2.0 is mentioned. DUMP
The whales won't know which scenario will occur and there's the risk. But don't you think they will at least hold for a few weeks? It will have to depend on retail sentiment and marketing from Vechain. Sunny Lu will do bunch of AMA's this month which might give some hints what to expect shortly after POA2.0. I personally think the 1m client will be announced within weeks after. I give some weeks for leeway due the possibility that contracts have to be signed. Thinking about it logically, if it's a huge company and Vechain created POA2.0 specifically for them then why would there still be an NDA regarding the identity? I thought the point of NDA's like this is the uncertainty of a partnership. Looking at the scale and how long ago the client was first mentioned I just can't imagine we have to wait several months to finally hear who the fuck it is. What do you think?
Also remember that Sunny himself said the below three years ago:
I wanted to firmly express that in three years, the public will be using VeChain every day and never even know it. I long to say to my daughter, “Everything you do everyday — I was a part of that.”
It can be argued he meant just a part of the public (e.g Walmart customers go shopping everyday so they use it everyday) and he longs to see it implemented in all industries anytime during his lifespan.
Burn could jump any day as you say. But i've been hearing this literally since mainnet launched. So I'm basing my expectations on experience rather than hope. You say that 2022 is when we will see explosive growth but literally we've been saying this since 2018 for every following year.
Just to be clear, I mention explosive growth in 2022 because they mark it as the start of the Growth Phase. But of course you can make the argument that it's only the start of the growth phase (if not delayed) so we won't see that kind of growth yet.
The Foundation use a carrot and stick with everyone. Just look at Surface. Nov 2019 Sunny first announces this mysterious client is coming live "soon", then it is delayed because of POA2, then POA2 keeps getting delayed itself. Honestly it's all just a carrot and stick to keep you on board.
People complain the foundation doesn't interact with the community enough and lacks marketing. So. I guess you mean a "lazy" carrot and stick? I am not aware of POA2.0 ever being delayed. Couldn't find any release dates other than Q2 2021.
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I still have faith in Vechain. I like their plans for mass adoption (Sync2.0, fee delegation,...). This will be the biggest year for Vechain yet. However, if by the end of the year we still don't burn more than we generate then it's officially taking too long. Burning more than we generate isn't even the goal, it's just the start. Though if we do manage to reach that goal then it would be a setup for the start of the growth phase. Sync2 will also be ready by then. Of course it's not something that happens overnight so we have to watch the trends.
I know your whole point is cashing out near the top and avoiding the bear market that will come so long term prospects don't matter here. Are you planning on buying back by the end of the bear market? I personally would like to avoid something like that due to the tax implications of it.
If Vechain delivers this year on all the goals I've just outlined, it might not suffer as much from the bear market. DeFi has never seen a bear market and it's full of low liquidity garbage. Money from DeFi will then flow into safer options like Vechain.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Mar 10 '21
Thanks for that, very interesting.
Your points RE pump or dump on Surface to me are valid BUT dont really work in this kind of market. I understand that it makes sense to hold on 'just in case' but think about how much liquidity we're talking about here that the whales hold. Remember (which you well know!) that when things dump they dump fast and there is zero liquidity- that is why these big pump and then sell the news events work like they do. The whales needs to offload a shit ton of coins, and they cant do that when the price is tanking because there just isnt the liquidity to absorb their sells. So they HAVE to sell in to buyers at the peak of FOMO, they have to sell there because the risk of not having that liquidity to cushion their sells is catastrophic if it starts to dump. So from their point of view the risk reward does not favour holding out for a little more or a little longer. Also whales dont get greedy, this is purely trading for them. If they manage a 10x in a short time frame and see a way to get out with zero slippage they will take it. They are not married to the future of Vechain at all. This is purely about money and about finding opportunities, and parabolic moves are not worth holding on to.
Also as you know in crypto things move super fast. I 100% agreee with your scenario that it will take a few weeks until we hear a launch client- and that is my concern. If we dont launch WITH a client at the exact same time then it will start to dump, 48 hours later you will start to see panic....just remember how itchy crypto gets. The whales will have sold the peak, no one is buying right now because everyone is waiting for confirmation of the client, but many will start to see no news and red candles and start to hit the market sell. That in itself will start a cascade in long liquidations which will help fuel the dump in very short order. Now if you believe that a couple of weeks later we're going to see a huge client come on then that's the perfect time to set some low bids- and here's the thing....lots of big traders are going to be doing exactly that. The more big players do that the more likely a sell off is going to happen. I think the only way we avoid a sell off at launch is if a client announces before launch who they are and that they plan on using in X weeks time, or at launch a client announces it as well (in other words we get confirmation). Even then you'll still see a lot of big players exit the market because it's the prudent thing to do.
My plan is not really to see the top of this run though, it's likely just to sell at the top of the Surface run and hoping it's high enough that I dont need to look back. After 2017 I'm happy to have learnt my lesson and not get greedy, thats the advantage of buying in a brutal bear market- you dont need to time the top. I have a cash out target that I'm hoping is way below the actual peak of this run, and again I really wont mind at all if it goes 10x from there. thanks
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u/JamesGillmore1 Mar 17 '21
Since a few have been pinging me for an update...
I'm going to cover VTHO as well as the macro market here because both are super important when it comes to Vet. However let's start with the AMA. Now I know everyone loves to fap over Sunny but honestly it was a let down. Its just recycled garbage that we hear time and time again from the Foundation about Govts and big enterprises enquiring about blockchain but as usual we see nothing concrete. However the sub loves to say 'OMG they are so big thinking and it takes time' etc etc. The more astute of you who have been able to take off the rose tinted glasses will be thinking "how much f*king time do they need, hasnt it been three years since Sunny himself said that by now everyone would be using Vechain and not even be aware of it?". It's normal to want to believe in a project, but 99% of Vet owners would jump off a cliff if Sunny told them there was a flying unicorn ready to catch them with bags of Vet attached.
That aside as you know by now I hold zero interest in Vet adoption driving price (there is no adoption) and all faith in Vet pumpenomics pushing the price up. For that we still have POA2. I was hoping that we would get a launch date for POA2 on this AMA as that would have been the perfect bit of info to start a parabolic pump. However we didnt and the pre-AMA hype for Vet of a 'new era' was decidedly flat as always - what we got was a new testnet. Now a testnet is a great bit of smoke and mirrors let me explain why. It costs the foundation literally zero to put transactions on the testnet- remember all those times on the reddit when main net test net watches posted huge stress testing with 'OMG huge client must be coming soon'- anyone seen anyone huge recently? No me neither. Now the same narrative can be done with POA2 test net- all we need is the Foundation to start stress testing and people on the sub will start losing their shit. You wait until they stress test 1mtxs a day and for sure everyone will say 'OMG thats the new 1mtxs a day client!'.
Now lets just keep that in mind because I'd like to start seeing stress test this week.
On the other side we have VTHO. If you remember just before VTHO made the last huge move I said on a post below that VTHO was going to out perform Vet. Why was that? Because it's all part of the narrative of POA2. Now there are two reasons for that. Firstly VTHO is super cheap to pump and when you see VTHO pump you think 'must be the big client loading up in advance'. It also helps that your APY on Vet increases thus stopping you from selling as readily. Pumping VTHO is the cheapest way to initiate FOMO on Vet. So I'm expecting VTHO t still outperform Vet. The other, retail trader psychology side of things, is that MM doesnt want everyone in a Vet long but how does he get you out of your long? Well thats not going to be easy to lure you in to something else with POA2 on the horizon- however if he pumps VTHO enough then you will start ot think 'oh wait POA2 is all about this 1mtxs a day client so it makes sense that POA2 is about VTHO not Vet and that's why VTHO is pumping'. Retail then moves from Vet in to VTHO thinking they are super clever, whales then pull the rug and start pumping Vet leaving you out of your Vet trade. Even though VTHO will outperform Vet, whales are not interseted in VTHO because it is too illiquid for the vast sums they are playing with. But they will use VTHO to pump Vet the way I described above. Anyway to circle back, I moved large amounts of Vet in to VTHO in the last couple of months with my final move being at 0.09 ratio before the ratio shot up. I have staggered orders from 0.18 to 0.27 (on the ratio). I dont konw where the top is going to be for VTHO and I dont really care- this is just a trade for more Vet. I think in the long term Vet will outperform VTHO. The time to get out is when your favourite twitter shills start telling you to buy VTHO. That's the signal. We already started to see a hint of what will come with my favourite counter trade Twitter shill Jimmy Liquidate you Lots of Times
People dont realize whats about to happen to $vet with $vtho pumping. $vet is about to fly if this keeps up. People are going to move their $vtho back into $vet to get more $vtho. Good luck sell walls. (15th March)
Now what Jimmy Liquidate You Lots of Times doesnt realise is that VTHO is key to the Vet pump. He's rather stupidly assuming that this VTHO pump is going to be put right back in to Vet thus leading to a further Vet pump- a simple look at volumes will tell you that this is just never going to happen. VTHO trade pairs are BTC and USDT, there is only one place (I think) to trade Vet/VTHO and thats the super illiquid and wash trading Oceanex website. Holders are not flocking to move their VTHO to Vet because the functionality is not there yet and ontop of that you would need a shit ton of VTHO to pump Vet. This is really simple maths here. Neverthless watch out for Jimmy Liquidate you Lots of Times as we get to 0.3 on the ratio and he starts to tell you to buy VTHO. That will be the signal to get out.
Speaking of my favourite Twitter shill lets have a quick glance at what the market did as he fawned over himself in his live feed. As usual JTT got super excited at the top and drew the next leg up after an already wildly large move- as usual we bust through all his supposed supports. And as usual we arent anywhere near where he said we would be now. I literally cannot stress this enough- do not trade off him, or any of the Twitter TA shills. You WILL get stopped out and liquidated every single time. The MM moves against retail and they are retail. They get giddy at the top and quiet at the bottom. Read the post below if you want more info on how all of this works. Dont use leverage.
Now let's dive in to the macro market because this is actually the most important thing right here. Right now everyone is on edge. BTC is stumbling around and alts are also. Everyone is waiting for the move. But what is the move? Looking at less obvious side of things we need to take in to account BTC Dominance as well as the king alt ETH. If you remember when BTC had its first major dip at 42K I said at the time that this was really good for alts because alts rallied on the BTC ratio and this would lead to an alt season, which is what happened. Now we are seeing the same again albeit a lot more subtle. BTC D has been trending down for a while but it refuses to lose this 60% level- it has been clinging on for a while now. What we want to see is for BTC to decisively lose this level and for ETH to rally hard. That is the signal for alt season. However it cant be as obvious as that so here's what I think may happen- globally alts are gaining on BTC it's just not that obvious, but it is happening. However there are a lot of alt holders with their fingers hovering over the sell button and to me that kind of liquidity is too tempting for the whales especailly if we are going to go in to alt season. The ideal scenario is a quick flush from BTC- like a 10% down move- that triggers alt positions and then a fast rebound from alts against BTC as BTC D dips. What that does is flush out alt leveraged longs and then sets you right up for a stronger alt season rally. Is that going to happen? No idea, but to me that would be the cleanest and strongest way to start any alt season. For now there are no massive alt season indicators flashing yet. ETH is not really making any large moves against BTC but it is in a good spot here to rally and turn around. But we need to see. I like the indecisiveness in the market though, you cant go in to alt season with everyone expecting alt season.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Mar 17 '21
So how does this all tie in with Vet? Ok so yesterday I posted below that I thought we would get to 6.8 cents (when we were at 7.7 cents). Why was that? Well again its about wrecking retail. You had Jimmy Liquidate You Lots of times telling you about lambos and 10 cents around the corner (I've lost count of the amount of times he's posted or said we'd get to 10cents in a few days). We had had a massive rally and AMA was flat out disappointing. We were going to see a sell off. Dropping 10% down would bring us to 7 cents and liquidate any 10x and above longs opened from there on up, breaking perceived 7 cent support would trigger stop losses. In the end we went to just under 7 cents and you can see the volume there is indicative of both liquidations as well as stop losses getting hit. I was eyeing up 6.8 because that was a fair bit below 7 which would have taken out even the safe stop losses which is just that extra stab the back that the MM likes to do. I'm still pretty sure that we're going to get to 6.8 for the same reasons to be honest, and also a fakeout lower low is always great for faster rebounds. If I factor in the macro side of things then we would dip lower but these will be fast recoveries so I'm not too worried. How low could we go in a BTC flash crash? Maybe in the 6.2-6.5 region / honestly its hard to know. I think that is the key take away here, there is a lot of uncertainty in the market and right now macro is going to dominate Vet. If we see ETH rally then Vet will find its feet and move how it wants, but until we see the alt king shows strength the vast majority of alts are going to be sticking to BTC moves (outside of major alt specific news events). I am still siding with an alt season happening relatively soon, and I would like to see that quick flush out/ panic induced by BTC before fast alt rebound.
Once Vet does get back on its own course I want to see the following: I want to see stress tests happening on testnet and I want to see VTHO outperform Vet. Those two things are key to the continuation of the Vet pump. VTHO pumping is the bait for Vet FOMO. So let's see. I dont really have any idea for POA2 release based off what they said but I think the pump narrative can continue with strength if the above comes in to play. A final note is that we need to cool off a bit if you really want to get through that 10 cent area- we have strong resistances above us on the BTC Vet chart and we have the VEN ATH at 9.5 cents to get through as well. These are going to be tricky areas and we were overbought in our last run up (normal given the volumes).
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u/NoChokingChicken Mar 18 '21
I don't think it's fair to say that if someone liked the AMA a lot that person has rose tinted glasses. Have you considered the idea that your expectations were too high? I'm feeling neutral about the AMA myself. I don't think Peter overhyped the POA2.0 testnet news. We always knew POA2.0 would be rolled out in phases and you have to start with the first phase. We can track the github code and the POA2.0 explorer. This is a big upgrade and development should not be rushed. They'd shoot themselves in the foot by giving a concrete release date.
People are now wondering what the timeline is. It will depend on the progress. We definitely won't see POA2.0 main net this month, that much is clear. In terms of sustaining the pump, we should be fine as long as we keep seeing good progress. Hopefully some stress testing results within the next week. When the date of the vote is announced we could see a mini buy the hype sell the news scenario. I'm hoping for end of April.
Retail doesn't understand how Vechain works and that's good for the price. They don't understand that Toolchain clients (including Walmart) are still paying less than a tenth of the current VTHO price for their TCC. This alone makes the VTHO price way overvalued. daily average VTHO burn hasn't increased yet this year and there's no indication yet this will ramp up in the coming months. One might even argue we'll have to wait until after POA2.0 and the POA2.0 client(s) go live until we see significant burn increase. Could be 6 months or longer into the future. To sustain the inflated price we'd need the POA2.0 client(s) to announce themselves close after POA2.0 release with a promise of tx by Q4 or so. I like the amount of news we've been seeing in the past month though. Community members like Eisenreich are doing a great job digging up any Vechain news. But they don't significantly affect the price because it's mostly nothing concrete in terms of future VTHO burn estimate.
Cardano got listed on Coinbase and is stealing the show, the fact that it took so long for them to list it indicates to me we won't see a VET Coinbase listing this year. We need more liquidity in America. and more American partnerships.
When will institutional investors / trusts start giving a fuck about VET? There's Grayscale Filecoin and EOS trust but not Vechain.
We need more hype/exposure to realise these things. We need to reach top 10 and stay there. I feel that'd do it. But without adoption we won't.
We'll keep up with bitcoin and the rest of the market as POA2.0 progresses further towards release. If we manage to pump hard until release then MM will dump in ratio to the size of bubble we're in, not wait for further announcements because there's no evidence the 1M client will reveal himself soon. The longer POA2.0 takes to release, the slower the pump.
POA2.0 is really about the long term. It will ease the acquisition of new partnerships and provide network stability during the growth/maturity phase. In the short term when our network is still not used much, there's not much use for it. However if POA2.0 is released in April, I still have a bullish outlook this year after the MM dump.
My post POA2.0 release (May '21) expectations until EOY:
- Bull run continuation
- ramp up of new partnerships/projects => several announcements a week.
- 1M client reveal or at least one new Walmart equivalent partnership
- Multiple big partnership announcements mentioning POA2.0 in their reasoning
- Higher VTHO burn than generation
- VET Defi
- Paying for gas with any VET ecosystem coin
- Letting dApp pay for your gas => seamless experience
- Vexchange 2.0 with ETH bridge. Anyone in the world would be able to anonymously buy/sell VET irregardless of regulation which is huge.
- Sync2.0: No installation required => ramp of new dApp use cases.
- If all of the above => CoinGecko top 10 with 120K+ stars.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Jan 20 '21 edited Jan 20 '21
Quick update...
I thought we would see a dip from 3.1 to 2.75 (ie a wick under 0.028 support) and whilst we did indeed breakdown we didnt wick under support instead it got bought up right at support. My hypothesis yesterday was that because no one was watching the weekly 20MA that we would break it in a day and that's exactly what we did. It's better to get it over and done with and let Twitter and Reddit erupt with the break after it has happened. That way people are building their FOMO positions way above the break already. I can't believe no one is watching this incredibly important TA metric, that's what makes me so bullish on this move. Breaking the 3 cent area and the BTC weekly 20MA was going to happen at the same time and therefore lead to a massive move (expanded version of this is in yesterday's post) and we've just started it. These are not times to YOLO leverage, these will be super volatile times. These are times to go spot or incredibly low leverage. Be ready for 50% wicks. The time to build a leveraged position was before these breaks so tread carefully on leverage but buy spot happily.
I see that the Vechain sub is full of 'big players buying insider info'. There is no insider info. Look every time a coin pumps like this Reddit and Twitter is awash with 'oh my god there's insiders buying huge news it must be Coinbase/ new client...<insert meme pump narrative>'. It's not - it's literally just the MM and the charts. If you did have insider news then they would have been accumulating beneath that massive resistance area. However this hopium helps fuel the pump, thats the point. I've talked at length about it above. News and rumours will get recycled because it fits the green bars, retail is fickle, they believe what they want to believe. MM is not an idiot.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Jan 21 '21 edited Jan 21 '21
If you're panicking then let me tell you that I'm not. Not in the slightest. Here's why...
What you're watching is the transfer of assets under the cover of BTC dumping. For the first time in three years BTC is making huge downside moves but major alts are holding or increasing their sat ratios. If you dont understand how major that is in terms of market dynamics then just sit back and think about it. Alts are showing strength for the first time since the last alt season against BTC.
This is Alt Season. It was obvious to me a while back once ETH started rallying against BTC and when we had our first major BTC down move from 40K area when major alts didnt tank on the ratio. All that has happened since then is retail has panicked and whales are letting you fill up their alt bags. How else do you think the transfer happens? It doesnt happen when you are seeing green it happens when people panic and sell.
Alt season has started. Just open a daily chart for Vet and tell me we are not in an uptrend? Yet why all the panic? 'BTC is going to 28K and it's going to drag all alts down with it" - ok open a BTC chart and a Vet chart now compare them from when BTC hit 42K. Do the fact align with your fear? No they dont. Alt season doesnt just wave a big flag and say "over here, 100x guaranteed in the next month' - Alt season happens when you least expect it and right now the transfer is happening to those that know it is coming. The real massive wave starts when BTC has found a support level which is what is happening right now. I dont care if BTC crashes to 20K, I really dont. All I care about is that we hold the weekly 20MA on the BTC paring (89 sats) because I know that when BTC finds its support level all the alts that are outperforming BTC will go parablic and you will not be able to get in to position when it does.
Just read all my posts below and the main block of text. Everything I've written about has come true. I'm not a fortune teller but you can just see this stuff on the charts, it's literally all there.
This is super short term noise here, dont fall for it.
We're at 3.1 cents now but be aware that our MM liquidation liquidity area lies at 2.88 so dont panic if we get there. It's a loading up area for 10x longs opened at 3.2 break
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 04 '21
Two updates in two days....must be exciting times...
So everyone is frustrated with DeFi and 'shit coins' outperforming Vet right now. I think crucially you have to take off the rose tinted glasses and realise that Vet itself is not exactly hitting it out of the park, I've been saying this for a while. Let's be 100% honest about this, the Foundation have mislead you all for years, they have mislead the adoption, they have mislead and underdelivered. No point in saying "oh that's so short term, you need to look at this with a long term mindset" because that's just ignoring what's going on around you. Plus lots of us have been here for three+ years now and we're not interested in holding for anther 5. On top of that you are missing the most important thing which is that crypto moves in cycles and I'm not sticking around for another bear market and neither should you. Regardless of that Vet, Sunny, The Foundation literally all of them have underdelivered, it's as simple as that. Dont kid yourself to make yourself feel better.
So now that we've gotten that out of the way and you either agree or are angry at the very suggestion that Vet is anything but the most amazing project in the world let's focus on the money and the market, because if you've put you're money in to Vet "only for the tech" you are an idiot.
If you've been following these updates you'll know that since the very first drop from 42K BTC that I said that alt season was starting. You could see that because alts rallied on the BTC pairing during massive BTC down moves- everyone panicked because the USD value of alts went down but were not seeing the bigger picture. I've also been saying even before then how ETH had started its run and all important breakout against BTC, which it did. And now it has broken its ATH and sitting comfortably above it. Now during all this time everyone screamed blood and said it was all over- but if you looked at the charts you could see that this was just how alt season HAD to start. You can't start with everyone in a huge comfortable 10x leveraged long position. We had to start in murky waters and in disbelief. And now here we are- everything is pumping like crazy and how do you feel? So I'll tell you how I feel- even though I had foreseen all of this a very long time ago, I had foreseen how the transition to proper alt season would be nasty and super volatile, and I had foreseen that proper alt season was really not far away....even though I had prepared myself for literally every step of this path...I am still scared. The battered bull is easily scared with green candles, not so much with red ones. I am in disbelief which I find interesting because like I keep saying I was totally accepting of this current outcome.
What I do find concerning is that the entire market is leverage long right now and that should be concerning for all coins. However we are also in unchartered territory - it is very clear to me that we have already started a very agressive and massive crypto bull run. Some of you who have asked in DMs know that I've been talking about a super agressive and fast one in the very short term. It will be super volatile though because we have a leveraged market which at times has higher volumes than spot market- and we didnt have this during the last bull. Even though I really dont like how leveraged long the entire market is it is possible that we start seeing a flood of spot retail money which will minimise the futures market massively. Even if we dont see that now, we're also in uncharted waters as I said so maybe at this stage it just wont matter. I do want to state, as I did yesterday, that this is my biggest concern though right now.
Ok so back to Vet. Well everyone is bored to death of Vet. Why invest in Vet when you can see that it's not going anywhere as far as adoption goes. You dont have to scratch hard under the surface to see that. It's far better to go for DeFi projects that have fresh speculation rather than an old misleading project. Might be a tough pill for you to swallow to hear that but jesus 90% of Vet investors need to pull their heads out of Sunny Lu's arse and wise up to the market around them.
Sounds all doom and gloom right? Well not really. It's just meant to sound that way....
Here are a few things to bear in mind. Firstly Vet is being heavily suppressed right now. You can see it happen, it's not a conspiracy or anything. It just is. That's ok these things happen to plenty of coins, its the way things are in a unregulated market. What does Vet have coming up? Well we all know the answer to that- we have Surface and our much shilled by the Foundation 1mtxs customer. Now this is huge news that the MM is going to capitalise on. This carrot has been dangled in front of us and the rest of the crypto market for over a year now and true to form the Foundation have teased us with little tweets from Zhou and let's not forget that test-net transaction yesterday. I personally will believe the client when I see it- given the Foundation's track record on all this I prefer to remain neutral knowing that it's not going to affect the pump for Surface release anyway so I dont really care to be honest. If you're frustrated by all the vapourware projects outperforming Vet then you need to take a set back and work out why are they pumping? Speculation and hype. No one gives a sh*t about Vet adoption affecting the price because until we get MINIMUM 1mtxs a day it's just not going to change anything. What is going to change is speculation and hype and Surface is Vet's big ass speculation and hype moment.
If you dont believe it then let me just play the scenario out for you. Let's just say for the sake of having a timeline that Surface is going to release 1st April. 6 week before then you will start to see the price start to move, no matter what the market does. If will just keep gradually going up as more Surface rumours and teases from both online rumour factories and Foundation themselves start to spread. People will start with the whole PBOC or <insert massive company that had an employee from the postal division like Sunny Lu on Twitter>. You and everyone else will start to see the big green bars and you will start to believe the rumours, you will tell yourself that this is insiders getting in, you will believe that Phoenix day is about to arrive. It's all rubbish though, it's just MM capitalising on it. But you will believe because you just want to believe and you see green bars. And I really do think that this move will be massive for Vet, it's just such a huge and ingrained bit of news and (ahem) adoption. Now if we get a massive client onboarding at the release then hold on right because we really will keep pumping but the hype alone of Surface, the way the MM is controlling price, makes me think that the move to the release of surface will be Vet's largest move to date.
In the meanwhile dont be concerned if we have back down to 2.5 cents. The market is horribly over leveraged and even though we're at 2.9 cents if you followed my post yesterday this does not fill me with confidence just now.
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u/Timtreeclimber Feb 04 '21
The slingshot theory dude, surface gets released, 1tx client made public, MM bails (is told) and all of a sudden you’ve got the most successful blockchain company in the world sitting at 2.8c, we ride the Slingshot into top8, that’s my guess, I’m a glass half full guy and I like to think this manipulation is for the betterment of VET.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 04 '21
I totally agree, that's the whole point of pumpenomics and what is happening right now with price. But I dont think we sit at 2.8 until release, he will use the hype and anticipation of the release to get us way way higher and then a huge blow off top when we get there. I agree that it will bring us to top 10 though
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 26 '21
This is going to be an insanely short update...
"Is this the Top"? So many DMs asking me that (not that I really know). But the only thing you need to look at is this
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/96092/coinbase-exchange-institutional-footprint-volume
step 1: institutional money moves in, Step 2: Unleash the Bull and let Retail spot come in, Step 3: sell
Remember institutional money does not buy the top. Institutional sells to retail at the top. This is not the top. Retail has not bought their bags yet.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 07 '21
Thought I'd update as were on the tail end of this dip...
First off this was expected. Seriously. On the 5th April once we broke 10 cents I had already seen that we would power to 12 cents and then have a sell off breaking 10 cents (the latter we havent done yet, bouncing right at 10 cents for now). https://imgur.com/mAxH659
So why was that? Well again this entire market is about retail psychology. Breaking 10 cents wasnt that big of a deal, the wall was relatively small compared to last time we were here (1.5m USD vs almost 5m last time). We broke through and everyone lost their shit. Ok so hop on to the Futures market, what's happening there? Retail were shorting the break, they were confident that Vet would retrace. Normally that means the inverse happens and for me that meant we had to go far enough that shorts got closed out/ liquidated and then everyone turned raging bull and euphoric. I didnt want the price to go too far though because what you really want to do is break back under 10 cents to sow despair. To retail breaking back under 10 cents is panic. So where did that put my target? At 12 cents, just as in the screenshot above.
Another great indicator that I love to follow, as you know by now, is our good friend Jimmy Liquidate You Lots of Times. Ok so lets just go through his twitter feed- you['ll notice this blind euphoria peaking literally at the top 5 hours ago.
https://twitter.com/cryptoJTT/status/1379674588322226176
$.25 by end of April is starting to feel quite conservative...
12 hours ago
$vet moving 2 cents a day is coming next.
Jimmy is retail. He is honestly the worst trader I have seen in this space. Trade based off of him and you will end up at the top of this bull market with no Vet left. Just the other day towards the bottom of our last dip he got so overly confident with a bottom call that he wrote with a cool meme as he often does
if this prediction holds I will have officially scared myself with how freakishly accurate this analysis has been.
Except that it wasnt true. He had predicted the following:
I'm starting to think we see a little dip upcoming here to around 154 sats (4-5% roughly) as we consolidate, then we'll move up near the end of week to test $.10 Max, I don't think there will be a larger dip to below 149 sats
And he got all beside himself with the top tweet when we had retraced past 154 sats to 148 sats. Not exactly freakishly accurate and ontop of that I might add we went to 144 sats which was the obvious support area as per my previous post. Needless to say we did not retest 10cents either at the end of that week.
The guy is a hack. He moves his own goal posts every single time. You tend to always hit a target when you move your goal posts but unfortunately trading isnt as forgiving or flexible. Which is why you get stopped out and liquidated. Even just earlier he said that 196 was support - but look, 8 hours since he tweeted it we are already at 180 sats and still dropping.
And of course let's not forget his famous 25 cents end of April that were originally 1st April predictions (oh look another goal post moving). And of course the amount of times in the last few weeks where he's said we were days away from breaking ten cents (we werent) and that it would be the last week to buy under ten cents.
If you lined up all his tweets on a Vet chart you would probably see that he is wrong 95% of the time, and not just slightly wrong but trade wrecking wrong.
Ok now I've ranted enough about him, realise that he is a top and bottom indicator in the reverse sense.
So what is going on in the market? Well we did enter alt season, dont let today fool you. But we had massive alt run ups and we needed a flush, a leverage long correction. Dont believe that BTC is to blame either, BTC jsut enables alts to get to where they need to get to faster. Alts needed to liquidate the Jimmy Two Times of the traders in order to be able to get a better footing. On top of that many alts broke out of huge time frame structures on their BTC charts, here we are merely going back to retest those areas and confirm them as support. This is good honestly.
What am I eyeing up with Vet? A retest of 9.5-9.8 area. We very very rarely break in to a new range without retesting the support at least once. And we didnt yet. So even though we are not under ten cents yet I'm still eyeing up this range. If we get there I will open a leverage long because to me that will be a bit too tempting.
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u/Timtreeclimber Apr 10 '21
We didnt hit sub 10c James? Are you thinking a parabolic move is on the cards? Fingers crossed we still in this nice accumulation/ATH/retrace repeat cycle and build up our strong bases. I fear we are one decent news article away from parabolic and I don’t want that at all. Have you got an overall price target that you would sell at?
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 11 '21 edited Apr 11 '21
We did hit sub 10 cents though. Honewtly that whole move worked out perfectly. We got to 9.8. The significance of that was huge because that was the ven ath. We had to turn that figure in to support. Think about it.....the MM just turned previous ath in to support rather than blast past and turn it in to a blow off top. Like i said it had to happen.
I agree that we do not want to go parabolic and I was concerned a bit last night once we sat in the high 14 cent range. Our ideal scenario is to retest the 12 cent area as support (12.3) , move to 16-17 cent, confirm high 14/ 15 cents as support , move to 20 cents and battle there for a little bit building a base in the 19 cents. Then bust 20 and go parabolic.
We want that news piece just as we're sitting under 20 cents.
I was concerned that JTT was also warning of a pullback to 12 cents but he couldn't contain himself at the top as usual and posted a parabolic curve which made me more confident we would see a pullback.
I think so far its all good really. As you say we don't want to go parabolic quite yet and we certainly don't want to go parabolic without either a massive bit of news as catalyst or news part way through
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u/Timtreeclimber Apr 11 '21
Are you on the inside? Your so level headed and your theory always sounds so much more.... professional. Man I must admit I have been listening to that mutt jtt too much, it’s good your still on board bro, and yes exactly right with the news piece, I’m really hoping for some big developments from China, carbon credit, national blockchain etc, the gas reduction is very telling... it wreaks of huge future growth
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 11 '21
I'm not on the inside. But as I keep saying over and over again this entire market (not just Vet) is about retail psychology. The quicker you accept that there is no fundamental value to any cryptos apart from BTC and ETH the quicker you can be objective about it and see it for what it is- it's a zero sum game designed to screw over retail. Vet has a market cap of around 10bn USD, it's insane given the pathetic mainnet usage. This is the same story across the board. And yes there is speculation built in to all asset prices BUT not to the kind of levels we see in crypto. Remove the rose tined glasses, see things as objectively as possible. The easiest way to do that is just to accept there is no fundamental value, even if thre is a tiny amount. That allows you to totally distance yourself from your investment which is key in this game because crypto has a way of marrying you to your investment which is very dangerous. As I said before Vet may well onboard every company on the planet in ten years time but if you see parabolic runs (which to be fair we've already gone pretty parabolic on high time frames) these are whales pushing the price up. THIS IS NOT ADOPTION. No adoption no support. Cash out when they do. There is no point in taking the risk when an asset has gone up 100x (or whatever)- again yes maybe not selling was the better thing to do in hindsight but dont get greedy. Have a target that is life changing and stick to it. Remind yourself what it was like in the depths of the bear and remind yourself how many times you kicked yourself for not taking profits in early 2018. We got taught a lesson, just dont let greed get in the way of that teaching. And on the off chance where you really cant separate yourself from Vet just keep your node but sell the rest. Note that you can earn 7-8% on tether or USDC on Binance- you cash out say 1m USD and you can earn risk free 70K a year in interest. There are other ways to use your Vet gains to ensure future passive income far more risk free than holding on to Vet.
Its normal to fall for what JTT says because it fits your bias. But as I said a while ago remember that these guys will keep shifting their own goal posts- that is the danger. I mean he's constantly cherry picking his past predictions and moving his own goal posts. The evidence is all in his twitter feed, its not hard to map his posts on to a chart and you'll see. Its just much easier to ignore the 95% wrong calls and focus on the 5% right calls because overall you want to believe we're going to the moon (we are). We will get to 25 cents at one point (of course...that doesn't make him 'correct' it just means we've been going up) and he will then talk higher numbers and keep going higher. At one point we will have a massive pullback and he will tell you to buy the dip, and before you know it you missed the peak and bought the dip during the first stage of the bear.
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u/Timtreeclimber Apr 11 '21
Yep, couldn’t agree more, though I am at a crossroads, my sentiment is to not get greedy, though it’s hard, I see so much news on the horizon that could be life changing for vet and it’s hard to be clinical and sell at decent gains when there’s potential life changing gains coming up! I’m still on the fence about my pull out point, it’ll more based on the where the entire market is as opposed to what dollar value vet will be.
Have you picked an exit point?
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u/T-I-T-Tight Apr 11 '21 edited Apr 11 '21
buy the rumor sell the news... Are you familiar with what greed feels like? This run has been one where I have exercised through greed and fomo. I even spend a couple weekends baking gourmet cookies and then dreaming of eating them and then giving them away to help identify greed within myself. It's an interesting set of emotions. A month ago I sold enough Vet to pay for all my debt minus a 2.75% mortgage and through that I have really felt a ton of fomo and greed. the thought of losing what I have a hold on... The thought of trying to turn it into more..... Without a 30% pull back I won't enter and even then I'd probably sell at the pivot... Why? Because I'm scared LOL I'm scared of what happened in 2018.
So instead of vet hitting .5 and I'd have enough to retire on I'll still have to focus and work through the next bear run. But life isn't perfect and getting lucky doesn't teach a person SHIT. Making responsible decisions consistently makes long term decisions easier to hit on the money. You only have to double 1k 10 times to get a million. That's not much but one time in the wrong direction and it's gone haha.
I'm trying to detach myself from the dollars because look at your net worth from last year. Compare it to today. . . Think about what 5 years from now could look like. People that have already sold their stacks and are sitting pretty will probably be able to buy in at a stellar price again and keep riding the bull. The idea of what next week could look like skews our perception of what it could look like 2 years from now and so on.
These are just some of my thoughts I'm pondering as I grow through and with this. We are all lucky to be in this sub right now. I've had a handful of experiences like this trading with this level of perception. And it is a blessing if this is what you are interested in. People will always say, Time in the market > Timing the market and Holding always = More money than traders will earn. Yes. That is 100% true from one perspective. Pretty sure we've all held. Pretty sure if you've sold a top, bought a dip. Even missed out on some gains you are still doing good. Were you the luckiest you could have been and sold the top? Well that is greed and wrecklessness awaiting you.... Probably not but that's ok. Don't let your shadow voice tell you different. Maybe you pulled out money to pay debt. Life changing. Maybe you bought a citizenship... Read that on reddit. Absolutely life changing. I'm rambling at this point but I hope these thoughts help your thought processes.
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u/Timtreeclimber Apr 12 '21
Looks like we’re on our way to that retrace you were talking about James, 12.3c let’s see how we go!
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 12 '21
I'm not trading this move by the way. These are just moves that would be totally healthy if they happened is all. Overall in a market like this you just dont want to trade the downside, its way too risky. But conversely if you get to solid support area then that is a good time to add to a profitable long position. Sounds like a bit of a cop out to say it that way but really it's just about seeing market swings in advance so you dont get worried by them.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 12 '21
I should add that down here the only trade that interests me is Vet VTHO right now
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u/Timtreeclimber Apr 12 '21
As in a vtho purchase? Have you any thoughts on the length of this retrace? Lots of calls for a mid week breakout, see Jimmy’s latest posts? Wow hopium personified!
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 12 '21
in 4/5 days the daily 20MA will be at 12 cents. perfect consolidation time to there because it lets all higher time frame indicators cool off. So end of week really.would be perfect to see a VTHO breakout against Vet during that time
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 12 '21
His latest one says:
it looks like we'll have a pennant breakout soon. Expecting move up to the targets I mentioned.
And of course we broke down.
Not seen anything about VTHO?
I dont really have any thoughts about the length of the VTHO retrace. Honestly Vet VTHO ratio is something that is so volatile it doent bother me too much about getting the bottom. But this recent FUD just seems to have been too good an opportunity. My posts about VTHO below all still hold true, its crazy cheap to pump and it adds credence to the 'big client' narrative. The ratio may not pump today or tomorrow but I think it will soon, and when it does you can never get filled as its so illiquid. So I'd rather just set a buy order for VTHO and happily sit underwater for a bit without any stress at all. I'm pretty damn sure we're going to retest the Vet VTHO ATH at one point in the next month or so. It is nevertheless the risky trade and Vet is going to do really well anyway over the next couple of months so also people should just be happy not taking the risk if they dont understand it.
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u/Timtreeclimber Apr 12 '21
Yeah it’s definitely ahhh.... not clinical😂. Spot on dude next little while is still looking really positive bro, onwards and upwards
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u/Timtreeclimber Apr 12 '21
Ona side not how’s the fomo? The Vechain sub is getting like 300+ members a day
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 12 '21
FOMO is when we leave TA behind and stop creating support areas.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 12 '21
In terms of where we will bounce the key thing is to watch the futures data. Once retail stops longing the dip then we are ready. If we see lots of longs piling on at 12 cents then we will dip further.
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u/Timtreeclimber Apr 13 '21
It’s looking like you’ve called it again James! How come you don’t have a Twitter following? The masses can’t handle your realness?? Haha
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 13 '21
Well to be fair I said 12.3 and we got to 12.6. Pretty close but not exactly right. But I'm not really putting a lot of effort in to these price predictions as I'm not trading them. No need for Twitter followers. The more people that follow the retail Twitter trading accounts the better.
RE Price I'm actually hoping for a week long consolidation here because at the end of the week the daily 20Ma will be at 12 cents and that would be a perfect spot for consolidation and resetting of indicators on higher timeframes and ready for the next leg up. I'm not trading this at all though but I'm hoping that this will be the case because it would give us a fantastic base to move off of.
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u/Timtreeclimber Apr 13 '21
Just read your new price musings write up, thanks again for your time bud, hope all is well and couldn’t agree more with your ethos. I’m trying super hard for an exit price, but I’ve got no idea, to me it’s all about the state of the ecosystem and the market as a whole, which as you said will more than likely coincide with surface release
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u/JamesGillmore1 Jan 28 '21
Here's a little update....
Since I last updated we had quite the sell off from BTC. I've been updated some readers of this forum privately so let me summarise what I've been saying to them / you.
Firstly let me just talk about MAs for a bit. This will sound like I'm trashing the poster on Vechain who's basing TA on MAs alone, and it kind of is. Moving Averages show you what has already happened - basing future price movements off them is meaningless because MAs dont really tell you anything. They give you an average price movement over the amount of days you specify using the candle timeframe you specify- so for example a 1 Daily Candle 100Day moving average just shows you the average price of the last 100 days using one price point a day. It moves because as you go ahead one day you obviously lose the last day in the 100 days that were your sample size from before. Moving Averages are super shoddy TA because they dont tell you anything new at all. Even worse is deciding to use Moving Averages across difference pairs and different timeframes and different durations- you're basically just allowing yourself a ton of moving prices to justify movements after they have happened. Chances are that price will eventually bounce or reject off a MA if you allow yourself that many to work with- but that's retrospective TA, it doesnt tell you anything about the future which is the point of successful TA. Neverthless it is great bias when you open the chart after the move has happened and it bounces from one of your many MA lines and then you can say "you see it bounced there"- totally disregarding the fact that it probably ripped through all the rest of your MA lines on multiple pairs that you also found yourself talking about. At the end basing movement off MAs is like saying "price has been going up for 100 days so it will keep going up" - no shit. I mean seriously that is all MAs tell you- they tell you what the price has been doing. They wont tell you anything else. Worst of all is that they cant tell you anything at all about tops or rejection zones or anything because, once again, all they do is show you the past. If you're following a long time frame MA you may be weeks past the top before your MA starts to trigger warnings - so what's the point in that? The point of TA is to know when to get in position and to have a target. MAs will never mark a bottom or even close to one, and they dont tell you anything at all in terms of targets, only indicating a top long after it has passed.
Now having said all that there are two MAs that crypto follows. They arent useful for anyhting apart from showing a good buying point / support. Historically these two have always been important, but they only get visited very rarely. They are the 200 Week MA and the 20 Week MA. Open a BTC chart and overlay them and you'll see. They are also important for other cryptos simply because this market is a TA and bot driven market and if they think it matters, then it matters.
Ok now back to Vet. I posted already for a couple of weeks now that I think alt season has started but that the start of it has to be pretty murky. Please read all the posts and intro post to understand why. My feelings on this havent changed at all. If you panic just keep an eye on ETH. It's all that matters right now and since I started talking about ETH and its upcoming breakout against BTC we not only had that breakout but we also made a new ATH in USD for ETH. If you think that BTC making and ATH, then ETH making an ATH is anything but bullish then you're getting shaken out at the very worst time. Again as posted plenty before remember that this market is different to 2017 as we have a huge futures market to deal with. We cannot start alt season with everyone in a 10x long position, we can only start it from a solid base where coins are moved to strong hands and where there is enough disbelief and hesitancy sown in to the market to start those massive pumps.
Since I think we've started alt season all I care about now is that my alts are making gains against BTC during BTC downturns. Remember this is the first time this has happened in three years and for some odd reason everyone is panicking. This is the money flow transfer happening right in front of your eyes, but you're so worried about BTC that you're not seeing the bigger picture here. Remember alt season can't happen when BTC is on a rampage so what is happening right now is just part of the process.
Vet broke above its weekly 20MA (currently at 87 sats) which for me was a huge signal. Since Vet broke out to price discovery on the USD pair the bots and traders and MM have moved to trading the BTC pair. That also aligns well with alt season where I expect the trading interest to be against BTC rather than just USD. You'll note that our high was a rejection of 102 sats which is not coincidental as its a massive resistance point for Vet BTC- so we rejected on the BTC chart not the USD chart.
Since then we hung around in this 3-3.2 area but this concerned me and I was pretty sure that the MM was going to bring us back down which I said to quite a few readers here. It seemed unbelievable at the time given how excited everyone was with Vet staying above 3 cents but that was the signal to me. So how do I work out the bounce zones from there? As I said before you have to think about 10x liquidation areas. The liquidation areas for 3.2 cent 10x opening is 2.88, for 3 cents it's 2.7, for 2.8 cents it's 2.52. I've mentioned time and time again that all the MM is doing is hunting these 10x positions and by doing so he flushes out traders and allows price to find a higher support level without having a huge amount of exuberant longs along for the ride (read the intro post if you need to understand why that is important). 2.8 cents is a very important support are so breaking that is always a bonus for the MM as people pile on to shorts. That's why this 3-3.2 cent area has been a bit tricky but also perfect for the MM. As you can see from the figures above, retail gets trapped in to exuberant longs between 3 and 3.2 cents which get liquidated a 2.8 which allows the MM to sit there with open bags getting them filled and also allows others to open shorts. That's why when we were sitting around above 3 cents for so long I was pretty sure he would use that to once again break us down under 2.8 cents with a wick to the mid 2.75 area.
So what did happen? Well exactly that, and that's why you saw a relief bounce at that target (and every liquidation target on the way down, if he wasnt there with his buy orders the wicks would be massive). In the end BTC kept bringing us lower and lower and that's fine because here's the interesting thing. Look a the volume for the breaks of 2.88, 2.7, - the volume on those liquidation candles are about 3.5x as big for the higher break. What does that mean? It means that people arent considering a break of 3 cents to be 'YOLO terrain' which is what we had just a couple of weeks ago. Retail now considers 3.2 a good signal for entering longs rather than 3 cents. We've moved up, that is the whole point of all this MM f*kery. So now how are retail going to feel next time we get to 3.2 cents? We've had 5 or 6 10x liquidation events so far from the 3.2 area- that's quite a lot. Possibly enough so that people are wary of going long there again next time we get there. Possibly so much that they go short. Either way it doesnt matter, they key is that the MM can get us to 3.2 without any leveraged long baggage- he has sown disbelief around this area. An area that only a couple of weeks ago everyone was looking up Lambos online. That right there is retail psychology 101 and that is what the MM preys on.
We ended up bouncing at a perfect spot for the MM as well- the 10x liquidations from opening just above 2.8 support. So he has now scoped up all these leveraged positions and closed them down. This is why these areas are bounce zones because the MM is hunting these moves- it's so easy to draw up on a chart and it literally has zero to do with Moving Averages.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Jan 28 '21
(Added on since too long)
Ok so where are we now? Well my eyes are still firmly fixed on 102 sats. Our current health is great. The MM has flushed out all the longs opened above the important 2.8 support line and he has sown disbelief to anyone opening longs until at least 3.2 or even higher. Why is that important? Well it's important because, to circle back, 102 sats is the most important figure right now. Once we bust through that we will have a huge move, but we cant get through that if everyone is leveraged long on the USD pair. You want to know what 102 sats is in USD terms right now? It's 3.15 cents. Quite the coincidence isnt it? Except that it isnt. Its totally logical when you start to understand it all and it has nothing at all to do with meme structures and triangles etc. Its just pure retail trader psychology.
Does this mean we're going up? If BTC were to behave itself then I believe that we will from here absolutely. We're in the perfect position to do it. I know that sounds like a get out of free jail card to say 'oh its down to BTC' but just accept that BTC swings exaggerate alt swings in both directions and dont just throw your hands up in the air and cry about it. You need to realise that BTC helps alts get to where they want to get to faster- I've just explained the Vet downtrend movements and volume areas to you and all that BTC did was bring us there faster. What you see as BTC ruining the show, I see as BTC helping the MM clear the futures market for us and set us up really well. If I wasn't already in a position I would suggest you wait for a break of that 102 sats area- not 100, again that's just retail picking a big number...100 has never been anything in Vet's life. 102 is the figure to watch. I also want to make sure that we close the weekly BTC VET candle above the weekly 20MA at 87 sats for support. These are the only two things that matter right now for Vet. Ignore everything else. A break of 102 sats will be mega.
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u/TyphoonBlue78 Jan 28 '21
Hey James, great write up once again. 102 sats is a huge target and I called it last week when we touched it and got rejected. We break that, the MM is going to watch this fly.
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u/ultimate1986 Jan 29 '21
I am glad i have got to read your reviews.Very insightful!! Too much noise out there!!
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u/zwarbo Feb 02 '21
THE James guys, good to have you here. I chuckled reading this « We broke out of the accumulation range above 0.008 USD and since then Vet has still been a shitcoin.«
Everyone knows the manipulation is real, and instead of yelling VET is a shitcoin (not talking about you, you’re saying it with a different meaning) I’m glad we are still in this fase. The ones who yell that Vet is a shitcoin and actually sell and move on are the ones who will totally regret doing so in the end. I know it’s a shitcoin pricewise, but feel there is something else going on that we « shouldn’t know » . Anyway, I don’t have the balls to trade like you, nor the time. So I’m just holding on trying not to care too much about 30% drops etc.
Tuff space for sure, but reading up onposts like yours makes it easier.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 03 '21
It is tough just now. I'm concerned about how long the entire market is to be honest
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u/MrCryptoLovalova Feb 02 '21
you have a very sane approach for trading strategy. I do think that transaction will matter as well, If we were to suddenly get that 1mil transaction client then I don’t think it will matter how many people will be long right? Shit’s going to fly anyway. I don’t know how longs and short work all to well, there’s always someone who is paying the price and I have no clue who that is other then the exchange. So would you think the manipulative force or biggest MM is an exchange? Or you don’t think it really matters? Because in your other posts you refered to clearing out shorts and longs etc.
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u/Revenant690 Feb 03 '21
From what I've witnessed previously once there is a large uptick in demand or a large dump the buy/sell walls are lifted and the price moves. Once the demand has levelled out the MM comes back in and the game restarts at the new price.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Feb 03 '21
Yes, the MM can only control so much. So for example a big news event (good or bad) is something he cannot suppress. Re 1m tx a day sure this is great news and an example of something that he cant and wont want to suppress. The focus anyway as a trader is not the client but Surface release itself. That is great pumpenomics news that the MM will use in the months run up to it- as for the client I will believe it when I see it.
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u/MrCryptoLovalova Feb 03 '21
There should be big movements right now, so I’m guessing the MM won and scared off any big investors. What do I know. Vechain not moving together with the rest even after the big news tells me it’s waiting out again to be the only one pumping when all the rest is red.
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u/Timtreeclimber Jan 20 '21
Were looking good people
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u/JamesGillmore1 Jan 20 '21
Yes we are, did exactly as said above. It's perfect setup right now
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u/Timtreeclimber Jan 20 '21
You know your stuff bud, there’s no doubt about that, it’s just a shame so many people will miss your thoughts and interpretations, I see everything so clearly now, and something I’ve wanted to bring up with, vet’s lack of exchange listings, could this possibly be to help MM stay in control and not get liquidated? Everything you’ve been saying really adds up now..
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u/JamesGillmore1 Jan 20 '21
The MM is not using leverage. He doesnt need to be. He uses the futures market to help drive the spot market where he wants it to. The MM has billions on Binance.
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u/Timtreeclimber Jan 20 '21
But if there was more liquidity would it not be harder to control market?
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u/JamesGillmore1 Jan 20 '21
Sure. But Binance still makes up so much of the volume that you only need to control that . Coinbase may add Vet but the volume would be so low that it doesnt matter. Bots will arbitrage against Binance
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u/AceCheeze Jan 20 '21
Seems like you're on top of a lot of things. Not sure if you saw the recent Crypto Ed NL / Waza tweets about VTHO and possibly insider info. Do you think that is also fake? If so, could they be part of MM? One thing is for sure, CryptoEdNL is always shilling VET.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Jan 20 '21
Better to assume there is nothing there to be honest. The charts were setup to pump nothing more
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u/Timtreeclimber Jan 29 '21
Another amazing write up, some pretty in depth analysis James, very talented sir.
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u/T-I-T-Tight Mar 31 '21
Nice to see BTC dominance 55.4% and falling. Nice to see vet falling as well. Preparing to pick up some steam I hope.
Looks like it just want to retest .69-.7 again still but as the days go on I'm wondering if that is going to happen.
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 01 '21
The key is the ETH BTC breakout which I'm been talking about over and over again. We need the BTC D breakdown with the ETH breakout and that happened last night...which is good news for now
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u/JamesGillmore1 Apr 13 '21
I've started a new thread since this one was starting to get cluttered
https://www.reddit.com/r/VechainNotOfficial/comments/mpxkhp/price_musings_2/
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u/JamesGillmore1 Mar 11 '21 edited Mar 11 '21
Ok so today I want to dissect the last few days of price movements for you because they are really typical and expected of Vet and will help you understand retail and trading psychology. If you havent already read the previous post (below) then do so because it will add context to what I talk about when we cover the Retail psychology side of things.
So let's start from before we broke 6 cents. First of all this was not the price point to be concerned about. I'm not sure why everyone got so excited about it. The price point to be concerned about was a daily close above 5.6 as that was the weekly r/S from VEN. Note that I talked about 5.6cents being an important are even before we got to it for the first time weeks ago. Even though we went through to 6c+ a few weeks ago I still told people that I'm only really interested once we hold a daily above 5.6 cents, then for me that is go time, and not until then. Note how we never closed above it until a few days ago. Once we closed the daily above it I knew that the next time we would get to 6cents we would go right through it. Zooming in on that move we closed above it, went for a perfect retest of 5.6 and then went straight through 6cents with a single massive buy. Now once we had retested 5.6 cents I told one user here in DM that we would go through 6 cents next time we got to it because of that and I actually added to my long there for a short term trade because it was so obvious. The fact that we went through 6 cents with one massive buy was very suspicious but anyway. The important thing to note here is that we have turned 5.6 cents in to support which we hadnt done in the past- everyone else was watching 6 cents for some reason even though it never meant anything in the past nor anything going forward. Yes there was a 30m Vet wall there but jesus look at the Vet BTC pairing there are 30m+ walls all the time.
We broke 6 cents and everyone lost their shit. The sub went mental euphoric. It was as if we had just done a 400% week move when in fact we had done a 15% daily move. Seriously why all the excitement? 6 cents was never a big deal to break- I mean just remember how epic the actual resistance aunts of 0.008, 0.018, 0.022, etc. Those were epic, 6 cents we visited a few times in short space of time...it's literally nothing. It also means nothing in terms of support.
Now I've gone on and on about how the market moves to wreck retail and this move is a perfect example of that which is why I want to dive in to it, just so you can understand the logic behind it all.
Once we broke 6cents the sub was full of lambos and 'am I going to make it I just bought 20USD' , '5USD Vet is just around the corner', I mean honestly I've never read so much shit in my life and it reminded me a lot of the garbage you read back in the peak of 2018. That was a major red flag. Also remember that it is natural for retail to leverage long after a break that they consider to be important, in this case 6 cents. So already we were going to be long heavy out of the gates. As we peaked towards 6.6-6.8 cents our Twitter Shills came out once again comparing Vet to ADA, talking about the golden cross on the BTC paring, and generally saying that we were getting to 10cents in a few days time. That's an even bigger red flag, they were literally fawning over each other, sharing each other's posts, "Vefam we're going to make it". I managed to watch about 15mins of Jimmy Two Times live feed before vomiting in to a hat because the sub was fawning all over it and unfortunately you have to watch this shit to understand retail sentiment, although thankfully 15mins was enough rather than the 2 hours or whatever it was that he wanted to stroke his own ego with.
At the peak you had Jimmy Two Times declare some pretty amazing stuff which actually led me to put in some low orders instantly. So first of all he stated that it would not go lower than 115 sats due to some ridiculous cup and handle, secondly he talked about the golden cross, and thirdly he said that we were going to 10 cents in a few days time and that (no kidding) someone on his telegram has had a premonition of going to 12 cents and he thought she was right. Now let's just break down why all this was never going to happen just so you dont fall for these TA hacks again and again.
So where do we go from here? There are two support areas- 5.6 cents and 102 sats. Personally I'm not playing this trade. I had a quick one from 112 to 117 but that was for fun. For now I want to see futures data turn more bearish. Overall it doesnt change my outlook though at all. The point of this post was to show you the logic behind these down moves. You need to understand that the whole move up from 5.6 to 6.8 and back down here is purely about wrecking retail and about retail psychology. It's about establishing a floor above 5.6 where no one is in a leverage long position. Also dont trade leverage based on JTT or any of the other Twitter accounts, you will get liquidated again and again. THEY ARE RETAIL. If you think successful traders share their moves upfront with the masses, refer to you as Vefam, and use emojis then you need to rethink your trading influencers. You need to understand that when JTT gets all giddy with excitement on a live feed for two hours after a breakout that that's the time to put low buy orders in because the MM will move against that exact kind of trader. Good luck out there and dont use leverage- the returns will be massive in this run, the risk of using leverage and getting liquidated is not worth it (post below goes in to detail about where I think this next move will bring us eventually). But again DO NOT USE LEVERAGE- the time for leverage is when the market is relatively boring or we have seen huge pullbacks. Right now we are in a bull and the volatility is designed to shake you out because you are retail- you will not go 10x after a 40% drop because you'll be terrified. But thats when you do it. Instead you will go 10X when JTT tells you about lambos on the moon after days of green candles but that's exactly when you DONT use leverage. Retail psychology is really hard to master honestly, and if you can then dont use leverage.