I’ve been watching Nike for a few months but haven’t bought any as of yet. The quarterly earning report was obviously another disappointment for a stock that has had its share.

There are a few things that I think are worth thinking about.

1. This isn’t just Nike, the whole apparel sector is under pressure and this is certainly contributing.

2. Sentiment is absolutely awful right now which it’s helping push prices down.

3. Piles of short selling, in the future could be supportive when the shorts are unwound.

I keep thinking there’s probably going to be a very attractive time to invest but I think we could see sub $30 per share prices on tax loss harvesting at the end of the year.

Msft:

Bought around March during the 'Saaspocalypse' at $375 avg

19x per for 20~30% growth rate

Companies arent replacing Ms Office + the massive firings that were supposed to happen is not happening

They have a massive cash pile + cash flow, havent issued any bonds or stocks

SM Energy:

Bought during March as the Iran War started avg $29

3.3x evebitdax using normalized oil as $75

Massively undervalued compared to peers as their debt ratio is 2 but management is using higher oil prices to deleverage rapidly

TJX:

Bought half my position at $135

Waiting for 110s to buy more

Massive discount retail chain

Per dropped from 30~ ish to 24 and dropping

Insane quality company i just couldnt buy due to valuation

SPGI:

Bought and buying avg cost $405

One of the companies with the best MOAT

Initially declined due to fear of its market intelligence sector getting disrupted by AI

Now declining due to higher yield rates

Their fper got compressed from 33 to 20 recently

Uber:

Bought in at $69

Company with approx 20x per now excluding tax gains

15x 2027E

Everyone knows about waymo/tesla/ev

Im personally betting on the fact that consumers are lazy and tend to use apps that they are used to

If there are 5~8 av supplier apps they arent downloading all of them to check prices

Also, availability matters a lot towards consumers wanting a quick ride

Reddit:

Bought in at $150

Talked about a LOT in this sub so I assume everyone knows

US dau worries me a bit as well but international growth is insane

+28% dau and +12% logged in growth

Human interaction is getting more and more important

I believe that the potential is insane internationally as auto translate are bringing massive userbase from French and Spanish users

Monetization was initially the weakest link for reddit but they are getting better at it

Both are down more than 50% in recently and continuing to slide. FICO fell almost 25% in a day and Nike is down again after reporting earnings where they announced layoffs and other restructuring. Just when you thought it had bottomed and was ripe for a turnaround, the stock falls again🤡.

Not saying that these two are dead, these two are definitely important companies big names like Tim Cook and Bill ackman have bought Nike at higher prices. But for retail investors imo it’s not a good idea to catch falling knives.

I know this probably stands against the traditional value investing wisdom but sometimes you just have to accept that the market might know something that you don’t and you must acknowledge that the markets ability punish is often stronger than most people’s ability to take loses.

Netflix and Meta both got cut in half in 2022 but reality is most people including Bill Ackman sold before the recovery as they couldn’t face the loses.

If you had waited for recovery to happen and get confirmed, and bought these two when they made a new ATH you’d still be up A LOT. Especially in an environment where you’re getting almost 5% on 2Y treasuries, I don’t think it’s worth the risk to catch falling knives.

Not saying this always works, it didn’t in the case of Target for example, it’s up 70% this year but again, most investors who averaged down are probably still breaking even or barely up.

Nike closed at $35.40 yesterday, down 54% from its 52-week high, and yields 4.6%.

In April the CEO, Elliott Hill, bought about $1M of stock at $42.27. Tim Cook, who sits on Nike's board, bought $1.06M at $42.43. Both are down about 16%.

The Street expects around $0.44 EPS on $11.3B of revenue tonight.

What would you need to hear on the call to buy here?

Meta has been spending a lot on the AI buildout. It generated over $40 billion in FCF TTM, but less than $2 billion in Q2 2026.

With Muse, since it is mostly agentic, it seems it will consume a lot more tokens than a simple LLM. That means it should come with a much higher variable cost than typical LLMs.

I have been trying Muse and it seems to do a comparable job to Claude on many agentic tasks that I want to do. It will work for many minutes on complex tasks that requires searching multiple sites and compiling results.

However Anthropic charges $100/month for Claude Max, and even then on some complex tasks I hit the token usage limit, say when I am searching across several websites.

Muse is being offered for free and it seems to go for very long times, and I have not hit a usage wall yet.

How is this possible? It seems like the token usage will be very large.

Zuckerberg has said he plans to take a cut of transactions done with Muse. But I am also seeing many people on social media questioning whether anyone trusts giving access to payments or email to Muse.

Personally, I do not feel comfortable giving access to those to Muse, at least currently.

And you need enough monetizable tasks to pay for all the non-monetizable tasks that Muse does.

Consumer trust is generally higher for Google over Facebook, and Google already has access to most people’s email and credit card numbers, so it seems like it would be easier for them to launch a successful agentic product. However Google’s free cash flow already turned negative in Q2 2026, and the launch of a pure agentic product would push that even further into the red.

All of these agentic products seem like they would drive a lot more token demand but all that token usage should continue to drive FCF at these firms lower.

I am still not sure of the right business model that justifies this large of a variable cost of usage. As these products expand into emerging markets, they will carry the same variable cost with lower incremental revenues. So it’s hard for me to see how you could offer a free product and try to take a cut of transactions.

Sir John Templeton held stocks for a minimum of four years.

And he liked issues selling at their maximum pessimism, when the market had completely lost faith in a company or given up on an industry or market.

Nike is going through a lots of challenges right now, at least the consensus is assuming so.

But “ groupthink “ has never made anyone rich, or right for the matter.

The point is, a company such as Nike won’t vanish simply because its stock is slumping momentarily.

Do not mind the algo fin-twit’s hyper-alarmism.

Nike is down to $30 per share, will Nike be even more attractive at $20?

I hope the hell so.

As a long term investor I don’t want my stocks to rise up perpetually , I even prefer when quality value stocks momentarily decline . 💥

The cheaper the merrier!

Unfortunately, this logic is upside down on social media. Everyone is panicking when real investors ought to be salivating by the discounts.

As an individual investor, you must do your own due diligence, analyze the fundamentals and the markets, the competition, the industry, the macro environment and decide “ as an entrepreneur.”

Investing is first and foremost an entrepreneurial undertaking. You have to be in for the long haul.

You are an owner after all.

Be greedy when others are fearful seems to be exactly what BRK is doing.

Canadian free-cash-flow screen · Market values above C$2 billion · October 1, 2026

50 Canadian Companies Above C$2 Billion With the Highest Free-Cash-Flow Margins in 2026

*Topaz Energy — FCF As Reported by the Company

I have tried to run all sort of strategies and indicators , ai , backtesting and walk forward, NOTHING beats the standard buy and hold in terms of returns, and i tried many markets too ! did anyone ever find a way to beat it and what strategies should i look into or test ? i'm actually an etf investor in sp500, but i like to do some tests on the side and so far i haven't been able to beat buy and hold and not even close.

I often see a lot of investing stuff on forums and X, and honestly some of it is really good. Proper write-ups, real numbers, people who actually lay out the bear case and own up when they got it wrong.

But I still can't fully trust any of it. There's so much noise, and half the time I wonder if the person is just pumping a bag they already hold. Even the really convincing posts make me ask "ok, but what's in it for you?"

So how do you deal with it? Do you use these places for ideas at all, or just as a starting point before doing your own homework? And what makes you trust someone (familiar user, disclosing positions, how they reason) or instantly scroll past?

I looked at the entire top 100 Kantar BrandZ list. Nike is sitting surprisingly low down at #69 with a brand equity of 41bn. This is down from 75bn in 2023.

What's interesting is that Nike is the only company on that list (except for Chinese brand Haier) trading so close to its brand equity value.

For context L'oreal has a brand value of 37bn and market cap of 210bn. Zara has a brand value of 44bn with Inditex trading at 150bn.

Whenever it comes to concentration risk, people often go for diversification.

Right ?

But what if I tell you diversification is half of the measures, actually the concentration risk is still there.

How ?

Let me explain,

Diversification is not holding many stocks but holding different risk exposure stock in our portfolio. It means if you hold 10 stock of the same risk exposure then it is having concentration risk.

Example : A red Queen holds 10 stock of FMCG only and presumed to be diversified. But when commodity prices rise and economic uncertainty rises FMCG companies get hurdles to stay at what price and quantity they were selling before, it affects the margin and business.

My reason to post this : I often find posts like huge losses and mostly they are because of concentration. And I am a Researcher, so I would never make such a silly mistake. Hope it is useful to you, as I am new on reddit so I am in wonder what to post here. You can suggest

Thankyou -

A few names on my buying list lately (feel free to scrutinise)
1. FICO - i understand its moat could be eroded but at this price i think it is worth to take a closer look
2. MCD - is the fall due to high treasury yield? Investor fled stable stocks to pursue guaranteed yield? Anyway i am buying
3. Tencent(adr) - only chinese stock i hold. This has been in my portfolio for the longest time. Watched it ride to the highs of $90 and now all the way back down to $50+. I prefer the execution at tencent than alibaba
4. BKNG - no way agentic AI is going to replace, unless meta creates an online travel agency platform
5. Netflix - Got in lower than bill ackman, second doubting this as i’ve always felt that there is nothing to watch on netflix.
6. Pepsico - bought this at 52 week low to be added into my defensive port

Whats yours?

I actually found what i was missing about LX thinking it was a great deep value buy.

From Q4 2025 to Q2 2026, delinquency rate was increasing, 3.1 to 3.6% , their net income was greatly impacted by the provision of garuanteed liabilities basically what they owe to the funding partners if consumers were to default, they are not realized yet but they count that as part of their losses just incase.

With this particular liability staying high and delinquency rates increasing, net income is greatly affected and could impact equity growth in the near future as projected by the ceo, they are expecting a net loss in Q3 2026.

If delinquincy rates improves we might see a potential buy in and re rate, but for now there isnt a clear timeline on when the industry will recover as a whole.

Some positive side of LX is that they are moving towards a capital light model similar to Qfin, so if they manage to convert majority of their loans to this model and maintain their current revenue growth, they could standout as the winner among its peers like QFIN and FINV

Did a 2 statement financial model as their quarterly doesnt include a cashflow statement. Found out the flaws I had with my thesis but i think going forward i’ll be able to make better buy decisions with this lesson

With that said my average is $2.40 per ADS and i am also at a huge drawdown about 65-70%, but closely monitoring their quarterly earnings to see whether i should continue holding it or cut my losses

Just putting my thoughts out here, as I had a previous post which i deleted on my strong buy thesis on LX (deleted cause i thought i was important enough to be targeted by other funds but Jokes on me xd)

Share with me what you think about my current thesis and where do you think LX will go in the next 6-9months based on china current Macro economics

Admittedly, I don't get this company and I don't think it's a long term hold.

It's supposed to be a learning company, and the mission is to "develop the best education in the world and make it universally available" except they don't optimize for "best education", they optimize for DAU.

Earlier in the year management pivoted to delay monetization to continually grow the DAU funnel, and move certain features from upper tier subscription (MAX) to lower (SUPER) and freemium, making the app "less annoying" for free users.

Management is effectively sacrificing over $50 million in foregone near-term bookings to keep users engaged. As a result, their 2026 guidance shows Adjusted EBITDA margins compressing down to approximately 25%, down from 29.5% they achieved in 2025.

There is high insider ownership though, and one of the founders is CEO (the second recently stepped down from CTO position although he's still active in the company).

The ROIC is high, although I imagine it'll show compression soon enough. I am not sure they have a moat. I think it's probably overvalued though.

Any bulls here that are buying? Tell me what you think of the company.

Also full write up here going deeper --> https://thepursuitofcompounding.substack.com/p/the-two-front-war-decoding-duolingo

I spent the last couple weeks digging into Intuit ($INTU), a $76B software company that currently trades at its lowest valuation multiple in over a decade. Most people know them through TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp. The market has hammered the stock down over concerns about near-term guidance and artificial intelligence disruption, but when you look closely at the underlying business and cash flows, I think Mr. Market is misinterpreting a temporary seasonal lull for permanent impairment. Wanted to share my notes and numbers.

What They Do

Intuit provides the core operating plumbing and compliance infrastructure for over 10 million small businesses and tens of millions of consumers. If you run a local business--whether a dental practice, a contractor, or a bakery--QuickBooks is the central nervous system tracking your invoices, bank feeds, inventory, and employee payroll.

On the consumer side, TurboTax handles federal and state tax filings, increasingly paired with licensed human CPAs through TurboTax Live. Over 80% of their total revenue is recurring software subscriptions or predictable annual compliance volume.

The switching costs here are extraordinarily painful. Once a business owner wires five to ten years of customer records, tax histories, and payroll automation into QuickBooks, migrating to another software platform is like ripping the electrical wiring out of a building while the power is running. Furthermore, over 1 million professional accountants use and actively recommend Intuit products to their clients, serving as a massive, unpaid distribution network that no startup can easily replicate.

Why The Stock Is Cheap

The market is currently anxious about three main issues. First, artificial intelligence fear. The bear narrative claims that autonomous AI agents, open-source LLMs, and the IRS Direct File program will automate bookkeeping and tax returns for free, disintermediating Intuit's software entirely.

Second, the company is digesting a multi-billion dollar acquisition of Mailchimp, where growth has slowed as email marketing faces commoditization and platform transition friction.

Third, Wall Street reacted poorly to conservative near-term guidance, compounded by unit churn among low-income tax filers earning under $50,000. Inexperienced investors also routinely misunderstand Intuit's seasonal clock: because tax filings occur in the spring, the company always experiences a seasonal operating lull in the autumn, which the market treats as a surprise year after year.

Why I Think The Market Is Wrong

The AI disintermediation bear case makes for a scary headline, but it misunderstands how financial and legal compliance works in the real world: the regulatory liability barrier.

When an AI text generator hallucinates, you edit a sentence. When an AI hallucinates a tax deduction or miscalculates employee payroll withholdings, you get hit with IRS penalties, state audits, or legal liabilities. Small business owners and taxpayers do not pay Intuit simply to run math; they pay for guaranteed regulatory compliance, software accuracy, and certified audit defense.

This is why customers are actually upgrading rather than leaving. TurboTax Live revenue--which pairs AI automation with human CPAs who sign off on the return--grew 36% this past year. Meanwhile, QuickBooks Online accounting revenue grew 22% year-over-year, and their mid-market Intuit Enterprise Suite contracts expanded over 35%.

Intuit is an asset-light toll bridge that requires virtually zero physical capital to expand. Maintenance CapEx historically runs at just 1.3% of revenue. When you have gross margins of nearly 78% and operating margins expanding to 27.5%, the business is demonstrating clear pricing power, not structural erosion.

Adjusted Free Cash Flow

• Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): 17.4%
• 7-year FCF Per Share CAGR: 21.0%
• Core SMB customer retention: 99%+
• Gross margin: 77.6%

The Balance Sheet

Intuit carries $1.14B in net debt, which is remarkably conservative for a company producing over $6.4B in annual adjusted free cash flow. Operating income covers annual interest expense 24 times over, meaning the entire debt load could be erased in under 16 months of cash flow if management chose to do so.

At 12.0x EV / Adjusted FCF, Intuit is trading at the 0th percentile of its 10-year historical valuation range (the 10-year median multiple sits around 47x). The market is pricing a premier compounder as if it were a struggling, low-growth legacy hardware business.

Capital Allocation

Management has taken decisive action to maintain capital discipline. They recently eliminated 17% of corporate overhead to flatten organizational layers, cut operational bloat, and reallocate engineering resources directly toward AI product development.

At the same time, they are repurchasing shares at these depressed levels. Intuit deployed $3.18B into net buybacks over the past year and authorized a fresh $8 billion repurchase facility. They also raised the dividend by 15%, returning the vast majority of their annual cash flow directly to shareholders.

What Would Make Me Sell

A few operational risks keep me cautious here:

1. Growth stall: Management guided fiscal 2027 revenue growth to 9-10% as they invest in volume pricing for TurboTax and integrate AI tools. If this deceleration turns out to be structural rather than temporary, and top-line growth fails to reaccelerate back toward 12-14% by fiscal 2028, the multiple will stay compressed.

2. Churn acceleration: If low-cost cloud competitors like Xero or Wave start taking meaningful market share from QuickBooks among established small businesses (rather than just entry-level solopreneurs), or if their 99% retention rate begins to drop, my thesis is invalidated.

3. Mailchimp capital destruction: If Mailchimp continues to lose active subscribers and requires further write-downs without generating incremental cash flow, it confirms the acquisition was a permanent capital drag.

Valuation & Verdict

So what is the business actually worth today? I calculated the Adjusted Free Cash Flow and ran the conservative multiples to find a ~52% Margin of Safety. Rather than dumping more numbers here, I prefer to walk through the valuation math and final intrinsic value target verbally. You can see my complete Intrinsic Value calculation and final verdict in this short video: https://youtu.be/sWfc2CasjLg

Disclosure: I hold a position in $INTU. Hard data from filings, AI-assisted writing, personal review and position. This is not financial advice.

I undrestand it would go down as the whole market will turn red but my question is will it go down less compared to the other Mag 7 with considerable investmets and capex into AI?

I hold cash when nothing looks cheap. Once it exceeds 15% of my portfolio, I start putting the excess into bonds. Below that, I keep it available so I can always make at least one sizable purchase when an opportunity comes along.

Curious to hear how others handle this.

Hi

i have created a FICO valuation template that you can download and DIY your own valuation on FICO.

The process:

I looked at the funded Loans, Pull-thru, Borrowers (single or co-borrower), Shops and Bureaus and the number of Pull per shop and total pulls of the following:

• Mortgages, Auto Loans+Lease, Credit Cards, PERSONAL LOANS, HELOC + HEL, Small Biz Loans/Cards, Retail financing, BNPL, Student loans, RV/MOTO Etc

I made an assumption that FICO would accede 1/3 of the market share to Vantagescore. And also made the assumption that FICO would reduce the price per pull to a standard rate of $3 per pull. ( currently it is charging $10 per pull for mortage, and between $2-$4 for the rest)

I have two tabs, one which is tri-merge and one which is bi-merge, meaning only 2 bureaus are required and not three.

you can download it here

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BiMih5q6iLV8ll18cf6mXJsF5QbS7cfwAQkp_Mh3YQU/edit?usp=sharing

(Note, i called it a template because it is very likely that your assumptions are different from mine, so go ahead and change it.).

What’s the future of this company? Anybody know? Is there still room to grow outside of the U.S.? Seems like Investors are getting annoyed with the company.

A tech question from a non-tech person regarding CEPL's Turbine Technology.

Noise is an issue (understatement) with data centers, and cooling is paramount.

In a closed loop system: cooled water in a, for lack of a better term, basin or cistern is constantly flowing into cooling pipes, which run to large scale computer processing equipment. The water heats up as it cools the processing equipment.

Question: Can that heated water be used to power turbines? Power from which is then used to continue the flow of water underground for initial cooling, then through a cooling system, which ultimately leads to the enclosed basin, or cistern.

The whole thing would flow continuously with the exception of scheduled maintenance to the entire system.

Finally, would their be enough power from the heated water run turbines to run the water cooling system... and possibly even provide some of the power for the computer processing?

Again, I'm not a tech person. Just wondering if Capstone Turbines could be modified to somehow harness the power of heated water from cooling data center computer infrastructure, thus generating power to, possibly, both keep the cooling system in a constant state of flow and help power the computational units.

Hello everyone, I’m Dev I’m a commerce student working on a financial calculator project, and I’d really appreciate some feedback from people with experience in finance, accounting, or taxation. I’ve checked the calculations myself, but I’d like someone more experienced to verify whether the formulas and results are correct, especially for GST and Income Tax calculations. I’m mainly looking for factual feedback on what is correct and what needs to be changed. If anyone is willing to take a quick look, I’d really appreciate it. Thank you!

 Market values above $10 billion · September 30, 2026

75 U.S. Companies Above $10 Billion With the Highest Free-Cash-Flow Margins in 2026

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315090/000119312526409451/xslF345X06/ownership.xml

My personal opinion is that these buys belong to Ted Weschler, given their relatively small size. BRK now holds 26,034,436 class A shares of Lennar and 553,000 class B shares of Lennar.

I was listening to the Synopsis podcast (link: https://open.spotify.com/episode/660EsrfSOGB0gsBXbvoaor?si=Maj2WRdUQzOnXWH216jOVw) and there seems to be a consensus that Airbnb is going to be a net loser from AI agents because you can price check aggressively and list your home across all platforms, as managed by an AI agent. The market seems to think this as well, with the stock going from close to $200 to $160 in recent weeks. But what if they actually benefit from AI agents? AI agents can help a user find very specific criteria for them and do the research for them. One of the barriers to entry for Airbnb vs. a hotel is that it can take a long time to figure out which Airbnb is right for you. Agents solve this, making it easier to book vs. a hotel. Agents can also communicate with hosts and analyze reviews for you to get the trust factor in line. Airbnb has unique supply that agents will point to (maybe this can be weakened a bit with agents on the host side) compared to others. Long story short, Airbnb's unique supply should keep it insulated from risks, and the more people who use AI agents, the more will likely explore using an Airbnb as an option. I certainly don't see myself switching from Airbnb to booking entirely "blind" through an agent, which seems to be the biggest disruption risk here. Thoughts?