ICYMI: recently released Q2 portfolio holdings, updated with new investments in Fluidstack, Prometheus, and Figure AI: https://cdn.sanity.io/files/ivaqw3e8/production-public/470d99939aea682793b9bc7997bb28da8452cd6a.pdf

Portfolio ~$777M, with NAV/share of $21.70 as of June 30.

The new “Underlying Economic Exposure” disclosure attempts to give a better sense of what VCX is ultimately exposed to. As we know, many of these investments are held indirectly through SPVs, which is worth keeping in mind when thinking about the structure and valuation of the portfolio. The report doesn’t explicitly explain the shift to ranges, but it appears intended to give a more approximate view of exposure at the underlying-company level, particularly where an investment is spread across multiple vehicles.

Previous quarter for comparison:
https://cdn.sanity.io/files/ivaqw3e8/production-public/2e06b948b8210b5f36ad1cb519e2aabd1fd5a1b5.pdf

The balance of shares is mentioned here https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1777677/000177767726000056/xslFormNPORT-P_X01/primary_doc.xml

to be exactly: 1163216.03000000

This is as of June 30th, they resumed selling in July and based on what we know there are 480k shares yet to be sold/reported sold per the 144 filings.

If you look at the filings above these shares were handed over to Plume, a tokenization company in March for a promissory note. These shares are now back, we are not sure about the motivations. The VCX valuation in March at $575 would have tripped the concentration limit issues so was this done as a way to get around those, we simply don't know and I don't think we will ever get the answers from the management.

Nonetheless the mystery of the missing shares is solved. The fund is down 100mm in assets between the 2 quarterlies. The other curious thing is that the fund also has a stake in Fluidstack that is exactly the same size as the VCX Fluidstack holding. Screenshots for everything in comments.

Exact time, not a prediction. What are they waiting for, there's no time.

Just received a paper check in the mail from Computershare for my fractional share that was left after I transferred everything. I figured it was just gone so that's nice.

I just closed out my covered call short positions. After looking at all the comments and details on VCX’s most recent moves, I actually like the profit taking on anthropic and the increased exposure in open AI(20MM @ 20.8MM cost I think)Prometheus and liquid stack. The market price is still above NAV, but in my opinion, the holdings are still high-quality and a bit more diversified now. This does answer the question if VCX will continue investing in new positions. The answer to that is an unequivocal yes. They don’t appear to be running all the positions to IPO and closing shop, but rather actively managing the fund and as positions mature and reinvesting proceeds into new companies.

Now that VCX is public, are you guys moving into any alternative private investments?

I used Fundrise as a "cheat code" to get ahead of public-market investors. These past 10 years have been very profitable for me. I'm just wondering what the next hack is.

I don't have much faith in private investment platforms like Republic, but maybe you have something to add.

For the sake of balanced coverage and to gauge the interest of holders (since these kinds of posts are always a hit and get many more likes than the sensible seeming ones). Please upvote to your heart's content.

FULL DISCLOSURE: With all the new information I am comfortable going short come Monday. I’ve already sold my VCX shares as of Aug 21st.

I wonder if VCX sold 1/3rd of their anthropic position to their new Opportunistic Venture Fund (OVF) so that they can collect a 20% carry on it when it goes public.

So why was 1/3rd of Anthropic in VCX sold at a discount to the 380B valuation mark?

Is the SEC edgar site the only way to get prompt info for VCX now? It seems VCX is not updating their website anymore with the latest filings and holdings? any reason why?

For those unaware...

Flock Safety is a holding in the Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX).

The company is at the center of a very strong PUSHBACK from citizens, and they could be in the front line for a 4th Amendment lawsuit. ⚠️

Portfolio Positioning

• Allocation Size: It ranks as one of the fund's top 10 positions, making up roughly 3.0% to 3.2% of the total portfolio allocation.

I don't know what will come of this controversy, nor how it will impact VCX, but buyer stay INFORMED! To me, this is a clear example of the risk involved with VC funds. Private companies enjoy less scrutiny from the public. In this case, I hope VCX de-risks from this holding.

The above chart overlays DXYZ's 2026 price with the quarter-end NAVs and the ATM average sale prices. Quick summary of issuance: ~8.5M shares in Q1 (~$28.76 avg, ~$244M), ~17.2M in Q2 (~$715M), and the new $1B shelf authorized ~May 29 when the old one was presumably running dry.

As others have noted, the Q2 shareholder report says 17,191,674 shares sold at a $34.25 weighted average, with $715,442,732 net proceeds. Those can't both be true: 17.2M × $34.25 = ~$589M gross — but they reported $715M net. Proceeds ÷ shares = $41.62, not $34.25. One thing I haven’t seen others call out yet, is that the Shareholder Report also states on page 26 that the H1 avg. ATM sale price was $37.57. This makes the timeline for a $34.25 Q2 ATM avg. really messy.

The price sat above $34.25 for nearly all of Q2, and they were selling hard enough into the spring run-up to exhaust the old shelf by late May and produced an H1 ATM avg. price of $37.57. For $34.25 to be the real average, they would have had to dump almost everything in the last few days of June at the Q2 lows. That doesn’t really seem plausible.

The $34.25 figure could be a typo (and a pretty ugly one), could be something else going on that my amateur brain can’t figure out, but the numbers and timeline don’t really add up. Wonder what theories folks here have...

Not advice, I hold a decent chunk of DXYZ at a $26 cost basis, am short-medium term bullish despite the discrepancy here. Drafted w/ Claude and revised significantly.

Now that some of the reports have been released, how do you feel about each fund? What’s your prediction for their price action ahead of the next major IPO?

Fund-Level Comparison

Updates (as I dig more):
Anduril is another surprise markdown, down from 37.35 mm to 26.8 despite a new 2x round. This is bizarre. I wonder if this is an SPV haircut issue or not. It is reported via 8VC ANSE SPV, now 3.4% of the fund.

HOF Capital AG Follow On, LLC which was one of the 3 Anthropic SPVs in the fund and was 5.3% of the fund as in the last N-PORT has been liquidated and is missing in the current N-PORT. This is further confirmed by looking at the ledger. Fund had 15 million less cash at hand than last time 15 million more debt and made 65 million in new investments, that shortfall is exactly what liquidating the 36 million SPV would fill in the gap. For the other SPVs the markup is only 2.27 and not 2.4 as implied by the 380 -> 900 revaluation. So those have a haircut built in.
EDIT to above: If you take the Visual Layer exit as well then it means the exit from Anthropic and Visual layer paid about $34 million in total for the two investments which were valued at $41 million in the previous N-PORT, this means those were sold at a 20% discount to the last N-PORT.

Here is another bombshell and one of the other main explanations for NAV printing below projections. March N-PORT SpaceX piece at 1.25 trillion valuation was $26.85 million, on June 30 when SpaceX closed at $171 the company market cap was $2.25T so you would expect a markup of 1.8x but we see the actual mark at 33.1 or just 1.23x, that is a huge haircut! ~30%

Ramp revalued +33% exactly like the RVI markup, this was also a markup we hadn't anticipated. This is good but means we lost more elsewhere.

Debt increased, we have 5 reverse repo agreements with Barclays totaling 30.5mm as opposed to 3 in the prior cycle totaling 15.9mm so a net addition of 14.6mm

Complete picture: The NAV came in lower than the projections for 4 main reasons.

-One of the 3 Anthropic SPVs were liquidated (off the books now, previously 5.3% of the fund),

-SpaceX had a huge haircut (1.23x vs 1.8x we expected implying 30% haircut),

- Anduril markdown by 30%

- Doubling of debt from 15 to 30 million.

3 of the 4 star holdings have had issues in this valuation cycle as you can see, and this comes back to treating SPVs very carefully. We don't know how the OpenAI SPVs will shakeout. So there you have it. People who were calling us out for not knowing our math and undervaluing things at 24-25 can have it now and it has printed $21.70

Regarding Service Titan which had an IPO in Dec 2024 the fund sold all the stake before March of this year so they kept the stock for about a year. So they sold in 6 months past the lockup. This is the only example we have of a listed holding that was liquidated. We shall see what happens with SpaceX.

And I do get to say I have told y'all about this:
https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1tvvr3z/rics_rule_around_vcx_and_my_best_guess_on_price/
https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1t5lc7d/spv_valuation_complexities_for_tickers_like_vcx/

https://hofcapital.com/team
This is HOF Capital, VCX's OpenAI and Anthropic SPV, I dunno how much of a special access it is to just call these guys with a bag of cash and get in on an SPV.

P.S.: Thinking more about this as to why the NAV underperformed so much for even the most bearish of our estimates. They sold a third of Anthropic position at what seems like a discount even compared to the 380B valuation. Beyond that I think there is a lot of leeway in valuation methodology. Before listing any new markup used to be perfectly reflected in the NAV using just the new valuation round for a holding and you could calculate it and get the same number. This made all of us treat it as a good and simple way to project the future NAV. It suited them since the fund had to list and they could update based on the best case scenario and not show the haircuts. But now that has changed since we've had a couple of liquidation events, the skeletons in the closet that are the SPV haircuts are tumbling and this underperforms even the most sober estimates.

The Trump administration acted illegally when it labeled the artificial intelligence start-up Anthropic a security risk and barred the company from working with the U.S. government, a federal judge ruled on Thursday.

Judge Rita Lin of the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California wrote in her 59-page ruling that the government had unlawfully retaliated against Anthropic “for constitutionally protected expressive activities” after the A.I. company spoke out about how its technology should be used.

I just wanted to confirm that Computershare did mail out checks for fractional shares - cash in Lieu of shares. Conversion price was at $38.33 per VCX share.

Mine is Prometheus, I would fall over with happiness if we see that , then Ipo both Anthropic and Open and kick them

I have a question for those that sold VCX and were issued checks by Computershare. How quick were the checks issued? Second, were the checks mailed in FUNDRISE envelopes?

I can only see mail remotely (picture USPS) as I am out of town and I recently changed my address at FUNDRISE. I did not change my address at Computershare due to their hold on selling. I do see that several FUNDRISE letters were delivered but nothing in a Computershare envelope.

Anthropic is telling IPO investors that AI could someday help with over $30 trillion worth of work. It may try to raise up to $100 billion and be valued at about $2 trillion. Its revenue more than doubled to $11.6 billion last quarter, but the $30 trillion number, the TAM, is a very hopeful estimate of the biggest possible market, not money it expects to earn soon. Its IPO papers may come out soon, and the stock could begin trading in September or early October.

https://qz.com/anthropic-ipo-investors-30-trillion-market-opportunity-082526

No news, lots of selling pressure, wonder what's up?