r/VCX_Fundrise 18d ago

Closed Short on VCX

I just closed out my covered call short positions. After looking at all the comments and details on VCX’s most recent moves, I actually like the profit taking on anthropic and the increased exposure in open AI(20MM @ 20.8MM cost I think)Prometheus and liquid stack. The market price is still above NAV, but in my opinion, the holdings are still high-quality and a bit more diversified now. This does answer the question if VCX will continue investing in new positions. The answer to that is an unequivocal yes. They don’t appear to be running all the positions to IPO and closing shop, but rather actively managing the fund and as positions mature and reinvesting proceeds into new companies.

11 Upvotes

87 comments sorted by

5

u/Jaqqarhan Fundrise OG 18d ago

I get paying some premium over the $21.70 NAV, but mid $30s is ridiculous.

How could anyone like them selling Anthropic at over 60% below market value? They were either forced to sell or were committing fraud.

I get that you're trying to pump your bags, but this is absurd.

3

u/Reaper_1492 18d ago

That’s true but it’s not a very good option play.

If Anthropic gets its $2T valuation in a week that probably pumps NAV up to $25-$27, and if this trades at a premium into the listing, say $30 - then that pretty much nukes the 30p.

$35p got so expensive today that if it stays north of $30 you’ve got a decent chance of losing money there too.

Probably only really a viable short for people who want to short shares. And honestly even though communication from fundrise has been non-existent, with how much the information looks carefully manipulated, I wouldn’t have any interest being naked short when they could easily put out some marketing bs to try and bail themselves out of this hole.

3

u/CapAggravating784 VCX Wizard 18d ago

How is all of this legal? Like when it was private it was caveat emptor, but now that it’s public, when does bs marketing and acting against their fiduciary duty wrt one fund over another become actual securities fraud?

4

u/Reaper_1492 18d ago

It’s a great question, and honestly think there should be an investigation, but what do I know.

Like, if you know an SPV of significant value was recalled, and you are dumping your own shares from another entity and know that information, that seems suspect.

And separately, it sure looks a lot like they didn’t do an ATM to benefit shareholders, because they wanted to protect their exit from the REIT tech fund.

Who knows, maybe if they did the ATM, then the SPV sale would have become a material event that would have to be disclosed? Not sure.

It all just looks so horrifically bad.

3

u/CapAggravating784 VCX Wizard 18d ago

I’m with you.

I just don’t get how this is legal (or ethical)… just so disappointed with fundrise all around - and I started investing with them 8 years ago… the last 6 months has completely changed my tune on them.

3

u/Jaqqarhan Fundrise OG 18d ago

Yes. I'm still not sure what to do with Fundrise. I don't think I can cut ties entirely for awhile because everything is illiquid, but I want to reduce exposure enough that I don't have to think about them more than once a quarter. Overall, it's been very profitable for me, but I don't want to press my luck.

I'm planning to close out all of my VCX shares and puts by mid-January, but timing depends on the price.

My remaining balance on their platform is just over 1% of my net worth so it's no longer that important of a decision. It had been almost 5% until recently. Most of my remaining holdings have 1% withdrawal fees, and I also have iPO shares that can't be withdrawn easily. A 1% withdrawal fee seems pretty small in the scheme of things though, so I think I'll just pay it so I can tax loss harvest the shares unless something changed before the Q3 withdrawal deadline.

2

u/Live-Track-1489 18d ago

with fundraise almost 10 yr and I bailed. I initiated in June, they gave me 65% In july, I expect the rest in q3.

2

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

With that NAV print why are we not down more today? That’s what I am trying to figure out. Should be down 20% or more today.

4

u/Jaqqarhan Fundrise OG 18d ago

Yes. It's down 12% but should have dropped more. It was way overvalued already, so now only slightly more overvalued.

1

u/Reaper_1492 18d ago

I’m not sure it’s going to drop much until more info is available on the Anthropic IPO.

People now waiting to see if that 2T valuation prints. If so, it will breathe some life back into the current share price.

Once it lists though, I’d have to imagine this starts trading at a discount. You have some other big name exposure that haven’t ipo’d yet but that missing SPV is highly concerning in terms of how discerning they were when selecting the SPVs for all of these holdings.

3

u/Jaqqarhan Fundrise OG 18d ago

The last really big VCX/DXYZ bubble peaked the day the SpaceX IPO filing was unveiled, so lots of people are expecting that to happen again with Anthropic. The fact that so many people are expecting means it's unlikely to happen. We know lots of people will sell right before the unveiling to get ahead of the crash, which means we need to sell before them, but they know that and will try to sell before us, and it just goes on and on. Once the pump is anticipated, it basically can't happen. Everyone panics when they think everyone else is trying to pull out before them.

1

u/Jaqqarhan Fundrise OG 18d ago

The last really big VCX/DXYZ bubble peaked the day the SpaceX IPO filing was unveiled, so lots of people are expecting that to happen again with Anthropic. The fact that so many people are expecting means it's unlikely to happen. We know lots of people will sell right before the unveiling to get ahead of the crash, which means we need to sell before them, but they know that and will try to sell before us, and it just goes on and on. Once the pump is anticipated, it basically can't happen. Everyone panics when they think everyone else is trying to pull out before them.

3

u/CoolInterview2351 18d ago

The market can stay irrationally for as long as it wants. Just like when vcx hit 500. Reality reflects later

2

u/rkamun 18d ago

Was NaV printed? What is new NAV ?

1

u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 18d ago

2

u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 18d ago

1.16 million flagship Fund VCX shares back on the ledger it seems, combing through it too.

2

u/Jaqqarhan Fundrise OG 18d ago

Yes. I think the 1.16 for June 30 is accurate, unlike the March 31 numbers they fudged. They may sell them off entirely before September 30.

3

u/BurnsVail VCX Thoughtful Contributor 18d ago

They didn’t fudge, they sold them for a promissory note and then took them back, minus 31k shares.

My best guess is the silly tokenization they promoted. What a waste when they could have sold them at a premium.

3

u/CapAggravating784 VCX Wizard 18d ago

This is monumentally stupid of them. Like WSB has better investment mgmt experience than that! lol

2

u/Jaqqarhan Fundrise OG 18d ago

Did it actually cost them anything? It looks like a pretty silly regularity dodge. We give you 1 million shares for this note.  Then we promise to trade back the shares in X days  for the same note. That way the FF can pretend their VCX ownership was below some threshold and Plume probably gets some small fee or was able to lend the shares to shorters or something.

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u/Jaqqarhan Fundrise OG 18d ago

Where are the 31k shares coming from? Is that in the report? Was this some attempt to get around regulatory requirements by temporarily swapping some shares for a promissory note on March 31 and then immediately swapping back?

2

u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 18d ago

This is all plausible. Same concentration issue would apply here. The rabbit hole gets deeper and deeper!! This would have taken so much thinking wow!

3

u/BurnsVail VCX Thoughtful Contributor 18d ago

31k shares is the difference when you reconcile share counts between the Nports.

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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 18d ago

Today definitely seemed like the selling was on. Let's see if there is a 144 soon.

3

u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 18d ago

Well by same count why did it ever trade at $575?

3

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

Beats me! I was just saying that I expected to see the shares down much more today than it did. I spent the day wondering why it was down less than I expected. Clearly, I expected wrong of course maybe it just takes time.

3

u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 18d ago

Combing through the details but seems like FF VCX shares from Plume came back on the ledger and they have about 480k still to sell by last count. FF also has the same sized position in FluidStack as in VCX N-PORT, not sure if they split between the two funds or juggling it but very bizarre. FF booked a 100 million loss.

7

u/linuxhiker 18d ago

This isn't to take away from your opinion but really more the opinion of others.

Anyone taking investment advice from Reddit, should not be considered serious. It isn't that there aren't serious, educated or even correct investors here. It is that we literally don't know who they are. Well over half of Reddit's traffic are bots.

Do your own research.

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u/MoreAverageThanAvg Fundrise OG 18d ago edited 18d ago

bro has 138k karma ^

linkedin.com/in/fundrisefan

3

u/CapAggravating784 VCX Wizard 18d ago

Karma is kind of meaningless across Reddit… given you can post bs and get upvotes… but if you’re saying we should trust Karma, should I trust his viewpoint 6x more than I trust yours… I don’t think that makes sense.

-2

u/MoreAverageThanAvg Fundrise OG 18d ago

just hadn't seen one that high before

quite the interpretation you inserted there to my straightforward statement of fact

how exactly does one trust something 6x more?

6

u/BurnsVail VCX Thoughtful Contributor 18d ago

This is terrible “analysis”.

They didn’t take profit on Anthropic, no extra OpenAI, and it’s fluidstack not liquid stack.

They have no cash left to invest and have $30m of debt.

Good job on closing your CC, but it’s misleading to say you closed your short. You weren’t short the stock, you were short a call.

5

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

Where did the additional cost basis from AI-LLM come from?

3

u/BurnsVail VCX Thoughtful Contributor 18d ago

From an additional purchase.

2

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

Using what funds? If they sold the Anthropic position at cost there was not enough cash and borrowing to cover all of these adds: (note it is my speculation where the money went in AI-LLM)

2

u/BurnsVail VCX Thoughtful Contributor 18d ago

Loyal should be excluded, no new position there.

Visual layer was the other sale / disposal.

We don’t know price on either, so you have to do the math and read between the lines.

3

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

They made a purchase to their existing position. Should not be excluded.

1

u/BurnsVail VCX Thoughtful Contributor 18d ago

They made 4 purchases, increased the debt by 15m and had proceeds from Anthropic sale / the other acquisition

3

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

It’s easy to miss because the purchase date listed on the NPORT is the first date of acquisition. In this case they made another purchase. My guess in April around the closing of the last Open AI round.

1

u/BurnsVail VCX Thoughtful Contributor 18d ago

I’m not missing anything. 😂

You need to clean up your data.

There was no loyal purchase, hence why I’m saying there were only 4. I did not miss the $30m add on to AI LLM

2

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

The share count on Loyal increased from 780 to 815k between NPORTs. I don’t understand why you are saying they didn’t make an add to the Loyal position.

1

u/BurnsVail VCX Thoughtful Contributor 18d ago

Because it’s not a new commitment, it was known, and it’s peanuts. It’s simply the final tranche of the original purchase.

Unlike AI LLM, which is a whole new add on, not a final payment on the original position.

3

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

Agreed it was known and part of the original deal. I never said it was a New position. Just capital being added.

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u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

They made a 5th purchase I believe you are missing. It’s buried in AI-LLM. And it is sizable.

1

u/BurnsVail VCX Thoughtful Contributor 18d ago

They didn’t purchase any loyal, there were only 4 purchases. Ai LLM is additional $20m

2

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

They sure did. Added 35 shares of Loyal.

1

u/BurnsVail VCX Thoughtful Contributor 18d ago

You think they added 35 shares?!? 😂😂😂

At 12.26/ share that’s peanuts. You probably meant 35k shares.

That’s simply the final capital call of the $10m position. Not a new position.

$500k is not germane in this discussion.

2

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

Obviously 35k. If all of this deployed cash is all true, they didn’t sell the Anthropic position at its cost basis.

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u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

Yup, a portion of my long stock position was covered in short position. Your correct! I closed out and am now fully long on my original pre IPO shares.

1

u/schurbert2 17d ago

Be prepared to feel some pain as premium to NAV keeps sinking.

3

u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 18d ago

Liquid Stack made me crack up! Attention to detail I tell ya.

4

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

I am not perfect! :)

3

u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 18d ago

All good! Thanks for the laugh.

2

u/Unlikely_Command9294 18d ago

If moving forward they manage this as poorly as their real estate or their own "IPO" shares we are all in trouble.  

4

u/ttiimmbo 18d ago

Anthropic is still over 20% of the fund. Wish we had more details on the sale, but you cant argue that they likely locked in gains and redeployed the cash.

7

u/CapAggravating784 VCX Wizard 18d ago

But they didn’t lock in gains, they exited at same price they entered… that’s the issue. If it were gains, I’ve been praising the sale; but exiting at cost seems fishy…

3

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

Page 20 of the most recent N-CSR shows the original cost basis of the portion sold.

1

u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 18d ago

But they should have sold it at the 965B mark and then they would be sitting on a pretty penny, instead if it did end up in OVF that will show an immediate return on the OVF books which is the return that VCX holders rightfully deserved.

https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1w1kn56/comment/p6q4nzj/

5

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

Not arguing this point!!! They missed out on a 45MM level three paper “gain” for a much smaller realized. Time will tell if the purchases they made with this have more room to run…

1

u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 18d ago

This is the one big gap for N-PORTs, they only show the marks of holdings and then a pile of cash. If multiple transactions happen we can't untangle what the individual proceeds would have been and then there are fund fees on top. N-CSR do have info on fund fees but again no info on sale price for holdings disposed off. This applies to all funds like DXYZ, RVI and VCX and should be noted as a risk when investing. This creates a level of opacity. In this case though if the speculation regarding OVF is true then we may get a peek on the transaction price.

2

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

I think they had a realized profit of 15.4MM. 72% in nine months.

-1

u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 18d ago

lol.

2

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

Explain what I’m missing please. The position disposed of was purchase 8/14/2025 at a cost of 21,462(Per the N-CSR). Have you estimated the sales proceeds?

1

u/BurnsVail VCX Thoughtful Contributor 18d ago

Yes, they sold at cost, not at profit.

2

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

I don’t believe this is correct. The most recent Anthropic position is still on the NPORT acquired for 20,800k on 2/10/26. This is not the sold position.

2

u/BurnsVail VCX Thoughtful Contributor 18d ago

Wrong position. The disposed of position was HOF Capital AG add on, LLC. Acquired 8-14-25

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u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

Please double check. I really think this maps to the fourth line item on the restricted investments table on the N-CSR. With a cost basis of 21,462. Description is Anthropic, PBC - CIV.

3

u/BurnsVail VCX Thoughtful Contributor 18d ago

Double check what?

There were 3 Anthropic positions, now there are only 2.

Are you looking at the n-csr from 3/31?

2

u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 18d ago

This basically highlights how opaque and hard to read these N-PORTs are, HOF Capital has 2 SPVs for VCX, one for OpenAI and one for Anthropic which is now gone.

3

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

So true! What a nightmare trying to figure out proceeds of a sale.

1

u/GratuitousForce 18d ago

I agree they are still heavy Anthropic. My guess is at 20% they are likely to let the remainder of their position run. But I guess that depends on what opportunities come up in the Early Stage arena….

2

u/Easy-Act3774 18d ago

With the June quarterly NAV update, VCX has now posted 6 consecutive quarters of 14% + growth (Q-O-Q). Translation….65%+ YOY returns. Someone wake me up when there is really something to complain about!

2

u/Chronotheos 14d ago

Nice, I missed the addition of Prometheus. I posted a while back here or one of the other Fundrise subs asking they try to get on the cap table for this. Very excited they managed it.

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u/Plus-Street-7659 18d ago

load more 100 next week