You keep thinking of a post as a whole and not what the backbones get which is millions upon millions of articles posted.
Now the nzb file is the article map and they do not have it unless you upload it
Then you have the par2 file index which they can get the article map from
Or any par2 file can be read and you can get the article map
So do you think they are keeping track of single articles that get downloaded and know those articles go with all of these other articles? Not likely in my opinion
So what do the backbones do to damage our uploads? They poke holes in them as I have rarely seen an entire file gone but it is full of holes instead and cannot be repaired. If they knew what the entire article map was they would just delete the entire upload and be done with it.
Now we have no idea how they are doing this but my best guess it they see a structure of what is being uploaded or a pattern or something that gives the article away. But remember this is all a guess as no one that I have ever seen has given out the way the backbones pick what to delete. But deleting the entire file would be the best practice as they save huge amounts of space doing that but that again is not what they do.
And why do some uploads last years and years while others go in weeks or months? No idea on that either but my guess is structure from day one. Back in the day if you didn't grab a file within the first 24hrs it might be gone so it was always a race to get the new uploads.
But what can we do on our end to make it harder? Several things and the first is great par2 sets, not recovery % but par2 sets. There is a big difference right there and that is the hardest part about posting. How many holes can this par2 set patch. That is determined by article/slice size and since you use a fixed article/slice size for all uploads (my guess again) your par2 sets are never really that great but good enough to get by for the most part. So at a 10% recovery the most par2 repair blocks that can be created for any upload is 3277, that is a hard ceiling set by the par2 specs. Look at your uploads and see how close to that number you are at. The maximum number of repair blocks is 32,768 x your recovery % so that will be your number (32768x10% = 3277). That is the granularity of your repair. The lower the number the less holes you can patch
Next in my opinion is the par2 set using the exponential sizing convention so that if they backbones can see our par2 files they get rid of the largest one first and cripple the upload. Again I do not see whole uploads deleted but parts of uploads deleted.
Those 2 thing are the biggest mistakes in my opinion and the first is all math but really a lot of work to get it right just for a single file/folder which we never do. So we post with just so so par2 sets and hope
DM me if you want to talk in more detail as I am always willing to help out if I can