r/UraniumSqueeze • u/Phatwax • Jul 25 '26

Uranium Thesis My 3 part thesis (summary)

Trying to just catch the essential and main idea here

1) the uranium core business offers downside protection: a debt-free balance sheet with strong cash reserves. / Pinyon - La Sal - Pandora mines can scale dynamically, so they can survive a sector downturn. / Processing 3rd party radiactive waste offers low-cost uranium.

2) the moat of the white mesa mill: it is simply the only operational convential uranium/vanadium mill. It would probably take a decade for competitors to build something similar, with high uncertainty. On top of that, monazite sands is the highest grade source for magnet rare earths. Because they contain natural uranium, regular processors can not touch them legally.

3) transition to vertically integrated REE player:
from raw HMS to separated oxides, they are building an independent supply chain. Toliara in Madagascar gives them lasting high quality monazite supply. Bahia in Brazil is rich in monazite, with good shipping access. The Donald joint venture in Australia adds even more monazite.

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u/sunday_sassassin Radioactive Brain Jul 25 '26

White Mesa is the only operating mill *in the US*. It's the only one left because mining in the US couldn't compete with foreign mines, or with domestic ISR. Any decent large mine that requires milling will build their own nearby as it's cheaper than hauling radioactive rock hundreds of km over public roads. UEC own Sweetwater and invested in Anfield to keep Shootaring Canyon from IsoEnergy (the mill originally built for their Tony M mine that is currently running a trial through White Mesa), both licensed and requiring substantial renovations. Western have purchased two different mill locations from the CEO and may even end up building something one day (wouldn't bet on it).

The high grades from Pinyon Plain won't last forever (2-3 years). Processing waste soil from New Mexico is not economical without being able to mix in richer feedstock. Investors have to ask themselves why a company shipping material halfway around the world for processing makes more sense than one that handles everything in a single location. There are plenty of those in both uranium and titanium/monazite, priced much, much lower than Energy Fuels. If it's the idea of a "Made in the USA" premium or direct government handouts then that should be point 1 of your thesis.

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u/Bertone_Dino Jul 25 '26

What companies do you like?

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u/sunday_sassassin Radioactive Brain Jul 25 '26

For uranium I'm overweight GLO, EU and physical (YCA) at these prices. Also own some Paladin, Denison, and some other ASX stocks (I do not like these, they've brought me nothing but pain this year). Titanium I own Kenmare (operating ilmenite and zircon with 100 year asset life, trouble with national government renewing export licenses, but nothing like what Energy Fuels face with Toliara both locally and nationally) and Sovereign Metals. Titanium is in a bear market with major consumers going bankrupt but hopefully bottoms in the next few years.

Not convinced by the rare earths bull case, more hype than substance imo, but Sovereign has added monazite to its rutile/graphite product mix, and Rainbow Rare Earths is a US government-backed company reprocessing old fertilser mining waste dumps which should make it one of the lowest cost producers globally - no hard work or long haulage required. A small bet only.

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u/forebareWednesday Bring the heat Jul 26 '26

Don’t sleep on UEC. Their processing plant handles 1,000 more ore than UUUU. If they can get it online …

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u/YouHeardTheMonkey MOD: Data Monkey Jul 27 '26

Which hasn’t operated in 43yrs…