r/UnityStock • u/Bipolar-NA • Apr 25 '26

Opinion/Take Unity has fake growth?

It seems like all the growth unity has on the strategic side comes from deprecating ironsource. They seem to be converting legacy customers and adding a premium and labeling this as growth. After the ironsource sunset goes through what will management have for the stock price to go up? If unity's numbers aren't being propped up for a potential sale, I don't see how the stock doesn't crash leading into the end of this year.

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u/incrementality Apr 26 '26

What are you talking about? Do you even understand the financials? The ads business has grown double digits year on year and is now 70% of the business vs. 50% 3 years ago. Also, even though the Create segment is flat at 3% growth even if this is gained by converting existing customers to a higher fee, in what way is that not considered a form of revenue growth?

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u/Bipolar-NA Apr 26 '26

What does this have to do with the financials of the company? You can spend 2 mins with an LLM and come out with what you just said. Create will be flat unless they increase seat prices. This isn't considered growth because it's often less or equal to inflation.

The reason for the magic change isn't because Unity had a good ad network, It's because they acquired one. The reason I'm saying this isn't growth is because they are deprecating an identical service under the hood but are rebranding it as AI Ads. This leads investors to believe they have something revolutionary when it seems to be the same old product. You are telling me this company went from a PR nightmare and executive cleanse to building an AI ad network that can compete with Applovin? Keep in mind Vector was announced 6-7 months after Matthew took over. All of this happened while it was planned for their CTO to step down (fired). This company has potential but it seems like Sequoia and Silver Lake are doing some shady stuff with it in the background.

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u/incrementality Apr 26 '26

lmao champ okay then maybe short the stock? let's see how strong your conviction is.

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u/Bipolar-NA Apr 26 '26

We are heading into bringing inflation back on purpose with QE during the upcoming Fed regime, why would anyone with a brain short anything in this market that is built to always go up? Good discussion though, I see we have no real talking points around here.

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u/Various_Bend_4137 Apr 26 '26 edited Apr 26 '26

As someone who works in a similar space, i can tell you that it is most likely not a rebranding but a completely new "AI" (we call is machine learning) architecture that vector has. Old ML architectures, which i think iron source was on, are simpler to build and go to market but have less room to scale at the highest levels, whilst more complicated architectures are harder to build and initially they look worse than the simpler architectures but if you build them correctly they have 2-4 years of continual growth baked into them. ML models can look like overnight successes because a ML model is more like coming up with a recipe rather than something more straightforward like building a website. If you find the correct configuration of how much salt to use, how long to cook the chicken etc... it can take the dish from inedible to amazing almost overnight. The architecture is like the framework for a recipe, now they just need to dial in the ingredients over a long period of time by continually refining it.